Turkey has increasingly taken over parts of northern Syria since 2016. It initially invaded northern Syria to stop US-backed Kurdish forces from expanding.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANTurkish and Russian military vehicles return following a joint patrol in northeast Syria, as they are pictured from near the Turkish border town of Kiziltepe in Mardin province, Turkey, November 1, 2019(photo credit: REUTERS/KEMAL ASLAN)
Turkey is weighing a response to the Syrian regime in Syria after five more of its soldiers were killed on Monday in Idlib. Syrian regime shelling has now killed more than a dozen Turkish soldiers and civilians between February 3 and 10 in two serious incidents. Russia backs the Syrian regime but Russia is selling Turkey its advanced S-400 air defense system. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought together his top advisors and military men on Tuesday to plot the next step in Syria.Turkey has increasingly taken over parts of northern Syria since 2016. It initially invaded northern Syria to stop US-backed Kurdish forces from expanding. Then it invaded the Kurdish region of Afrin and then in October 2019 invaded Tel Abyad, vowing to re-settle millions of Syrian refugees in areas where Kurds live in eastern Syria. Turkey has also trained tens of thousands of members of a Syrian National Army, a rebel force. It has sent them to fight in Libya and in Kurdish areas. Now Turkey is confronted with a new problem, it is being targeted by the Syrian regime.Since September 2018 Turkish forces had a ceasefire in Syria where they had observation points in Idlib. Idlib province in dominated by an extremist group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Turkey prefers the rebels it has backed to HTS. But now Turkey is caught in the middle of a Russian-backed Syrian regime offensive against HTS. As Turkish troops are dying the government in Ankara must act. Turkey claims it used F-16s on February 3 and that it struck 115 targets on February 10. There is little evidence that its retaliation did much, even though Turkey says Syrian regime soldiers were killed. Turkey wants a body count, like the US wanted in Vietnam, to show it is winning.Turkish media talks about the “blood of martyrs” and Turkey’s leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan sat with his security cabinet of Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, and member of the General Staff Yasar Guler, as well as intelligence advisor Hakan Fidan and Fahrutten Altun. Senior advisor Ibrahim Kalin was apparently absent. Vice-President Fuat Oktay was at the meeting.Turkey boasted that no attacks will deter the great Turkish army from responding. There will be no new wave of refugees from Idlib. This is Turkey’s real concern. It doesn’t want another million Syrians, after hosting almost 4 million Syrians. Turkey has poured armored units and vehicles into Idlib in a show of strength. It hopes to use them to shield what remains of Idlib as the Syrian regime inches closer to the province capital. Turkey wants to manage the crises.Turkey is also hosting US Syria envoy James Jeffrey who is known to one of America’s most sympathetic voices on Turkey. Jeffrey has often told Ankara one thing while the US has done something else in Syria. Turkey’s leadership knows that it will need to phone US President Donald Trump once it makes a decision if it has a request from the US. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already condemned the Syrian regime assault on Idlib on February 3. But Turkey doesn’t know if it wants support for a real military operation. Turkey is handicapped by having to ask Russia for permission to fly in Syria and coordinating with Russia. Russia also has technicians in Turkey with the S-400s that are supposed to be operational by April. One flick of a switch by Moscow can shut down Turkey’s S-400s and cut them out of the $2.5 billion program. Turkey must walk a thin line now.
