Incoming prime minister Naftali Bennett will be sworn in on Sunday in the shadow of last month’s Gaza war, domestic Jewish-Arab unrest and amid the threat of renewed IDF-Hamas hostilities, particularly over Jerusalem.
The sequence of events that are likely to unfold in the coming week, let alone the coming month, would be a test under fire for any prime minister, but will present a unique challenge for this particular government because of its unorthodox composition.
The new coalition headed by Bennett of the right-wing Yamina Party and incoming foreign minister Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid Party also includes left-wing parties and the Arab Islamist Ra’am Party.
It’s a coalition that has an unprecedented ideological range and many of the decisions that it makes are likely to involve principled compromises by one or more of its members.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the most contentious and divisive arena for this coalition and issues relating to it are expected to be one of its weakest links.
It’s precisely here, on the Israeli-Palestinian front, the new coalition will be tested, both within its first week and its first month in these four ways.
1. Evyatar outpost evacuation
Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who will retain his role in the new coalition, is poised to evacuate the West Bank outpost on Monday, less than 24 hours after the government is sworn in. The outpost was built last month in the aftermath of a Palestinian terror attack at the West Bank Tapuah junction, in which Yehuda Guetta, 19, was killed. It was erected on a spot that settlers had first attempted to settle in 2013 in the aftermath of a Tapuah junction terror attack in which Evyatar Borovsky, 31, was killed.
The reconstruction of the outpost named in Evyatar’s memory was largely ignored by the IDF. Within a month’s time, close to 50 families had moved onto the site.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plea to Gantz to allow the community to remain was ignored, so only direct intervention by Bennett can prevent its evacuation.
Should Bennett intervene, he would likely anger the left-wing flank of his coalition, as well as some of its centrist members, such as Gantz, who heads the Blue and White Party.
Such an evacuation, however, risks inflaming the West Bank and setting off a chain of violent events. Past outpost evacuations were often followed by violent retaliatory attacks by right-wing Jewish extremists against Palestinians. This would come at a time when Hamas is already attempting to inflame the West Bank.
2. The Flag March
Police on Friday approved a parade route for a right-wing Flag March set for Tuesday, just one day after the anticipated West Bank outpost evacuation.
The annual event is typically associated with Jerusalem Day events that mark the celebration of the city’s unification in the aftermath of the Six Day War, in which Israel captured the eastern part of the city from Jordan and subsequently annexed it.
During Jerusalem Day last month, however, marchers were prohibited from following their traditional route through the Old City’s Damascus Gate and the Muslim Quarter, and were instead expected to head through the Jaffa Gate. Hamas fired seven rockets at Jerusalem during the march, thereby officially bringing it to a halt. This month, march organizers had sought to hold the march along its original route and in the end brokered a compromise with the police by which they would dance with flags by the Damascus Gate that opens into the Muslim Quarter.
The area in front of the gate has been one of the city flashpoint for Israeli-Palestinian violence. Police closure of the area briefly as a place of Palestinian gathering in April during the Muslim holiday of Ramadan was one of the initial sparks that led to May’s violent outbreak.
An Israeli flag dance by the Damascus Gate, which for the Right is an important symbol of sovereignty over the city, is similarly expected to ignite renewed Palestinian violence.
3. Palestinian evictions in Jerusalem
There are four existing land issues in Jerusalem that could lead to the evictions of thousands of Palestinians from their homes in three east Jerusalem neighborhoods.
The one that captured both media attention and that of Hamas last month was the fate of some 28 families in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. The High Court of Justice has yet to decide whether to weigh in on the matter or to allow for the evictions to move forward. No date has been set for its decision.
But dates do exist for additional cases. The attorney-general is expected by the end of June to issue an opinion on a land case in Silwan’s Batan al-Hawa that could impact at least 700 Palestinians.
Another land case regarding al-Bustan in Silwan that could impact more than 1,000 Palestinians has been delayed until August. Some 13 families, however, could be in danger of losing their homes, irrespective of that ruling, because they fall under the dictates of the Kaminitz Law, which blocks them from seeking any additional legal recourse.
One such Palestinian family was already given a notice last week that he has 21 days to destroy half his home, otherwise the municipality would move to knock down that portion of his abode. It’s a demotion that could equally spark violence and the pending evictions that neighborhood have been under intentional scrutiny.
Lastly, the issue of pending evictions in the Walaja neighborhood of east Jerusalem is also due back in court on June 21.
The Right has viewed each of the cases as land issues. The ones in al-Bustan and Walaja involve municipal plans for parks. The cases in Sheikh Jarrah and Batan al-Hawa involving property disputes between Palestinians and Jews.
But they are seen within the larger context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and placed within the prism of the battle for sovereignty in Jerusalem, with the Left and the Palestinians believing that the eviction are an attempt by the city to seize control of Palestinian neighborhoods for Jewish projects and residents.
The neighborhood battles have sparked tension and violence, with the European Union and the US weighing in on behalf of the Palestinians. Hamas has also threatened violence as a result, and the issue of Sheikh Jarrah, in particular, was one of the sparks that led to May’s violence.
4. Gaza
The IDF-Hamas 11-day war ended on May 21, but it’s unclear if the calm is a lull in the war or the end of this round of violence. Hamas has already renewed its threat of more rocket fire with regard to the Flag March and there exists a real chance it could make good on its threat.
Bennett and Lapid’s coalition could be in the position in its first week of deciding whether and how to retaliate should that happen. It would mark the first time that Israel would have a coalition with divergent views on how to handle Hamas rockets.
When Netanyahu became prime minister in 2009, Hamas had been in charge of Gaza for less than two years, having ousted Fatah in a bloody coup in 2007. The initial Gaza policy and the first Gaza war occurred under former prime minister Ehud Olmert’s watch.
The bulk of the Gaza policy, however – including the 2012 and 2014 wars, as well as the border restrictions on goods – has been set by Netanyahu. It was one of the areas of consensus within his government. The disagreements that existed centered around the question of whether Israel had been hash enough, rather than too lenient.
Bennett, who often criticized Netanyahu for not doing enough on Gaza, particularly with respect to the tunnel threat, will now have to decide how harsh a response he would authorize.
Even without violence, other questions must immediately be answered, particularly with regard to what type of goods can enter Gaza and what mechanism can be put in place to ensure that Hamas cannot divert materials for military use.
The terms of the calm between the IDF and Hamas that is now in place have yet to be set. Egypt is mediating indirect talks. It is still attempting to finalize those details while at the same time attempting to create a permanent ceasefire that could include the return of the remains of two IDF soldiers and the release of two Israeli citizens held by Hamas.
All these issues must now be dealt with by the Bennett government, with the possibility that the failure to find a satisfactory response could lead to renewed violence.
Egypt has also chosen this time to become more involved in Gaza, a move that could potentially lower the possibility of renewed Hamas rocket fire, but which may lead to tension points with Israel.