Ever since Hamas launched its barbaric attack on Israel on October 7, Israel’s political and military leaders have told the nation that the current war will take time and could go on for weeks and months.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his first remarks to a stunned nation on the night of the attacks, said that “this war will take time.” This is a mantra he has repeated numerous times since, as have Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, National Unity Party Minister Benny Gantz, and Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen Herzi Halevi.
Gallant told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, “We have a long war – it is not a day, a week, or two weeks. It will take time.”
It already has. In fact, this is already among the longest wars Israel has fought. On Tuesday, the war enters its 32nd day, only two days less than the entire Second Lebanon War in 2006, and with no end anywhere in sight. The Hamas war has already lasted longer than the 1973 Yom Kippur War (19 days), the 1967 Six-Day War, and the 1956 Sinai Campaign (100 hours).
The 2008-2009 Gaza operation, Operation Cast Lead, lasted 23 days, though the 2014 Gaza campaign, Operation Protective Shield, lasted 49.
Israel’s leaders have been telling the country that this war will take time in order to prepare it for the long haul, and the country, as the war enters its second month, seems both resigned to this fact and willing to make the sacrifices necessary.
Morale in the army remains sky-high, and – as a result of the atrocities of October 7 – the determination of the people to do what it takes to defeat Hamas has never been greater. Despite seething anger at the government for the colossal failures that led to October 7, the nation’s spirit remains strong and determined. The country, despite some detours by Netanyahu and others into petty partisan politics, remains united and resolved.
The nation will give the army the time it needs to complete the job – to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities and remove Hamas from power in Gaza. Israeli patience is not the problem. The potential problem is the world, or – to be more exact – the US.
Israel can wage this war until US President Joe Biden says, “stop.” Theoretically, it can – as a sovereign nation – wage the war even after that day comes. Ariel Sharon did this during Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, when he continued to move into Palestinian Authority-controlled cities in the West Bank, defying then-President George W. Bush's urging him to heed his advice and “withdraw without delay.”
But given the substantial level of support that the US is currently offering to Israel, far surpassing what Sharon received from Bush in 2002 – including not only Biden's moral and diplomatic support but also the deployment to the region of two aircraft carrier groups, a nuclear-powered submarine, and an airlift of armaments to restock depleted supplies after a month of intense conflict – it is highly improbable that Israel would decline a US call for a ceasefire whenever it is made.
However, at this point, as the war enters its second month, that call is not imminent. Despite voices coming from the left flank of the Democratic party calling for a ceasefire that would essentially keep Hamas standing – though there are some exceptions among the Left to this stance, including unlikely sources like US Senator Bernie Sanders and the Washington Post editorial board – Biden has rebuffed these calls. He has even turned a deaf ear to threats by Arab Americans not to vote for him in next year’s election.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was quite explicit in rejecting these calls during his visit to the region over the weekend, saying, “A ceasefire now would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did on October 7. You don’t have to take my word for it. Just a few days ago, a senior Hamas official said it was their intent to do October 7 again, again, and again. No nation, none of us would accept that. No one would find that tolerable.”
Why imperative to protect Gaza's civilians buys Israel time
The US, like Israel, wants to see Hamas dismantled. And, like Israel, it realizes this will take time. This realization also dovetails with something else that Biden has stressed all along: the expectation and demand that Israel take steps to prevent civilian casualties inside Gaza as much as possible.
Calls to protect human life are also essentially – though not explicitly – a call to take things slow. Going slowly, carefully, and deliberately reduces IDF casualties, as well as civilian ones. And Israel is going slowly, deliberately, not rushing headlong into the streets and alleyways inside Gaza.
If Biden wants Israel to take steps to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza, and he wants Israel to destroy Hamas, then he realizes that this will take time.
And, up until now, he has given Jerusalem time.
It is incumbent on the military, however, to realize that this time is not unlimited.
“The element of time is important,” former National Security Council head Giora Eiland said in a Kan Bet interview on Tuesday. “We cannot wait a year, or two, or three until we get results. We have to get achievements – at least in northern Gaza – within a few weeks.”
Why? Because as images of death and destruction in Gaza mount, there will be increased public pressure globally for a ceasefire, and then Biden will come under pressure from his allies – both in the West and in the Arab world – as well as from fellow Democrats, to do something. He will not be able to fend those calls off forever. And when he cannot rebuff those calls any longer, and concludes that the time is right for Israel to end the fighting, it is crucial that Israel will have scored significant successes inside Gaza and will have largely already dismantled Hamas’s capabilities.
Considering the current level of close coordination between Israel and the US, including calls between Netanyahu and Biden every few days, such a US call for a ceasefire would not come out of the blue.
The administration will certainly give Israel warning of its intent and allow it to secure certain achievements. It is also unlikely to happen any time before Israel delivers a fatal blow to Hamas. A call for a temporary humanitarian pause to allow certain supplies inside Gaza should not be confused with a ceasefire.
But, eventually, such a call will come. Israel, wisely, is taking it slow right now, acting deliberately and with caution inside Gaza. It must also realize, however, that there is not endless sand in the hourglass that has already been turned over.