Why is there no ceasefire? Stuck in Gaza with no strategy - analysis

Going after Mohammed Deif does not justify the South being stuck in bomb shelters and the continued strife with Israeli-Arabs in Israel.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB
Smoke and flames are seen following an Israeli air strike on a building in the Gaza Strip (photo credit: REUTERS)
Smoke and flames are seen following an Israeli air strike on a building in the Gaza Strip
(photo credit: REUTERS)
The IDF has been carrying out a highly impressive, wide-scale and precise airstrike operation in Gaza since May 10.
But now that it is clear that Israel is unwilling to invade Gaza and strike a much more lethal blow to Hamas’s fighting force and rocket arsenal, there is no reason to continue the air campaign.
Israel has not won and will not win the current round outright, nor will Hamas – a situation similar to the 2008-09, 2012 and 2014 wars and the war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Without either a ground invasion or a major diplomatic breakthrough, there is no winning or changing the game in Gaza.
There will just be a hiatus of temporary relative calm for most Israelis until the next round. Gaza border communities will tell you that they have had almost zero quiet, even when things are quiet in Tel Aviv and central Israel.
The IDF has done whatever the cabinet allowed it to do. In a matter of days, it destroyed much of the Hamas tunnel system, which it took 51 days to do in 2014.
It destroyed many rockets and protected the homefront admirably, under the circumstances, with the Iron Dome air defense system.
But it only made a dent in Hamas’s and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s rocket stockpile, estimated at some 14,000.
Even if reduced now to 10,000 or 8,000, Gaza has plenty of rockets left.
The IDF has killed a number of senior officials, but fewer than 200 Hamas and PIJ fighters out of tens of thousands – barely a pinprick.
And while killing top terrorist leaders has an impact, there is a long history of Hamas leaders being killed and replaced, dating back to Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi in 2004.
The IDF was thrilled after assassinating a major PIJ commander a few days ago, but he had only been a senior commander since 2019 when he stepped in after a superior was killed.
Clearly, these groups have the ability to replace their senior leaders, except for Mohammad Deif, who is somewhat unique and possibly more militant than any of the other top Hamas leaders.
This is true both ideologically and because Israel has caused him extensive bodily injuries that have left him a paraplegic and harmed many in his family.
But knowing that even Deif is replaceable it is nothing less than bizarre that the leaks coming out now of just missing him twice in the last week, seem to be justification for continuing the operation.
Deif is important, but going after him a third or fourth time does not justify keeping the South stuck in bomb shelters while strife continues between Jews and Arabs in Israel – if the IDF and the cabinet are not prepared to invade.
Restoring deterrence is crucial, and this operation needed more than a few days to do so. However, the longer it goes on, the more it will raise questions whether it is being dragged out to reduce Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid’s time to form a government.
Until there is an invasion or a diplomatic move, Israel will be stuck in Gaza, regardless whether it has troops there.