Syrian Penetration of the Southern European Front: Observations and Implications

APRIL 28, 2016 01:31

Recently, I had occasion to travel to southern Europe. Specifically, I was on the border of Greece and its northern neighbor, Macedonia. I was rather interested in gauging the Syrian refugee issue from the standpoint of a passerby. What I noticed was that all along the road leading from the border toward Thessaloniki one could see gas stations filled with tents, kids playing soccer, women cooking on open fires and men walking along the road; a few of whom were hitchhiking (shown below).

What stood out to me was the sheer number of military age males, many of whom were equipped with cell phones. The experience generated two questions. First, where do desperate refugees acquire the funds to purchase cell phones and data/voice plans that would work in Europe? Secondly, how likely is it that the men were merely innocent victims in Syria’s half decade of civil war?

The first question could be answered with additional evidence. Nonetheless, it is curious. The second question, however, seems to be more thought-provoking and the answer is partially known. As anyone keeping up with the news can plainly see, the latest source of attacks in Europe have come from the Arabic-speaking conflict zones. The Islamists, military age and mostly male, made their way to Western Europe by hiding among the majority of innocent refugees. Common among them was their allegiance to the latest (and most powerful) iteration of political Islam: The so-called Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL/Da’esh).

One may be inclined to believe that the presence of military age males with cellphones among women and children is insufficient evidence of the potential for terrorism to materialize as they move into central and Western Europe. That is a fair guess. Yet guessing incorrectly has deadly consequences. To wit, if one casually peruses YouTube for Syrian war videos, one will notice that not only are there no moderate forces, but nearly all interviewed fighters espouse some degree of Islamist sentiment. In fact, most videos are posted by various Islamist elements; be they IS, Jabhat al Nusra (the al-Qa’ida branch in Syria), or any of the dozens of other smaller fighting units whose allegiances tend to sway toward whomever is winning.

Hence, military age males coming from Syria (and other regional conflict zones of a similar sort) could not entirely be dismissed as mere victims of violence. With the exception of a number of non-Arab Kurdish factions, it would be counter to the Arab men’s survival instincts to imagine that they fought alongside moderate Arab militias. This is plausible for one important reason: there are none. The Free Syrian Army has patently been shown to be a farce and, oddly enough, the Syrian government forces are the only Arab moderates, if the term could be applied at all.

Although the Macedonian government gets it right in not allowing the undocumented to transit through their country without papers that carry them to the other side, this country of limited size and wealth will likely suffer the fate that awaits them when a few bad actors unlawfully slip through the cracks. As I left Macedonia, it was relayed to me by some civilians that they encountered two Arab men approximately 8.5 miles inside of Macedonia, in a mountainous area that is inaccessible by vehicular means. The Arab men asked in English where the road to Serbia could be found. Startled, the civilians pointed in the opposite direction, toward Greece. Hopefully, the Macedonian border guards have since located these men before they could pose a threat to Western Europe.

The country of Macedonia is no stranger to Islamist-fueled attacks in places like Kumanovo and southeastern Skopje, the capital. Nor has it been immune to the Islamist cancer that has spread across much of Europe and parts of the United States. The best remedy for fighting cancer is to prevent it from metastasizing. In this sense, Macedonia may need some additional counter-Jihadist practitioners to render assistance with regard to the infected area.

Map with Imagery Showing the Locations of the Northern and Southern Gas Stations Inside Greece.