The framework for a hostage deal that would include a six-week pause to the Gaza war is in place, but it is contingent on a positive response from Hamas, a senior US administration official said on Saturday.
“Right now, the ball is in the court of Hamas and we are continuing to push this as hard as we possibly can,” a US official told reporters during a background briefing on a deal that the US hopes will be in place by the start of the holy month of Ramadan on March 10.
“The Israelis have accepted .. a six-week cease-fire” as part of a “phased deal” that would “enable a significant surge of the humanitarian work that has to be done,” a US official said.
The deal is structured such that it can be transformed into something more long-lasting, he said.
The sticking point now, the US official said, is the hostages, especially those who are vulnerable, such as women, the sick, and the elderly who would be freed in the first phase.
His words echoed other statements that indicated that not all of the remaining 134 hostages would be freed during the six-week pause to the war.
In the background briefing, the US official said, that this deal is more complex than the one carried out in November, as he referred to the week-long pause that saw the release of 105 captives.
“The hostages have to be released,” the US official said, adding that “it’s now at the point where the main issue is whether “Hamas is committed to doing that, that is really the main issue now."
“We would have a ceasefire if Hamas addresses that final issue," the official stated, cautioned that he did not want to raise false hopes about an agreement for which more work was needed.
Israeli, Hamas delegations to arrive in Cairo on Sunday
Israeli and Hamas delegations were expected to arrive in Cairo on Sunday, two Egyptian security sources said, though another source briefed on the talks said Israel would not send a delegation until it got a full list of hostages who are still alive. Egypt and Qatar have been the main mediators of a hostage deal with backup support from the United States.
For its part, Israel will not take part in more talks until Hamas clarifies the number of hostages slated to go free, and how many are still alive, a source briefed on the talks said.
"No [Israeli] delegation will be going to Cairo until Hamas provides answers," the source said.
Hamas said this week that in total around 70 captives had been killed due to Israel's military operations.
The terror group has not backed away from its position that a temporary truce must be the start of a process toward ending the war altogether, an Egyptian source and a Hamas official said.
Israel has insisted that it must be able to complete the IDF’s military campaign to destroy Hamas and that once the war is over its army must maintain security control of Gaza.
Egyptian sources said assurances had been offered to Hamas that the terms of a permanent ceasefire would be worked out in the second and third phases of the deal. The duration of the initial pause, a phase expected to last about six weeks, had been agreed upon, the sources said.
Hamas did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding the assurances and whether they were sufficient to move forward with the six-week pause.
"When it comes to ending the war and pulling forces out of Gaza, gaps remain unbridged," a Palestinian official familiar with mediation efforts said. The official did not immediately confirm the Cairo talks.
Israel also wants Hamas to agree to a ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage, said the source, who declined to be identified further.
A draft proposal drawn up in Paris in February and sent to Hamas this week indicated progress on a number of issues and proposed an overall ratio of one hostage in exchange for 10 Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists jailed in Israel.
Completion of a truce deal also required an agreement on the pullback of Israeli forces from northern Gaza and a return of Palestinian residents displaced towards the south of the coastal enclave, the Egyptian sources said, although the source briefed on the talks said that for Israel the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza was not the main holdup.
The Egyptian security sources said mediators had raised options for winning Israel over to a permanent ceasefire deal including approval of a security buffer zone between Israel and the Gaza Strip, and arrangements for Israel to jointly monitor Egypt's border with Gaza.
The draft proposal also included a commitment to boost humanitarian aid to the enclave, suffering crippling shortages of food and medicine and where more than a million people have been displaced from their homes.
It was unclear if an incident on Thursday in which scores of Palestinians were killed as people waited for aid near Gaza City in the north could affect the timing of any deal.
To help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the US military on Saturday carried out its first airdrop of aid into the enclave and the Biden administration is also considering opening a sea route for humanitarian assistance as it pressures Israel to open the Erez Crossing.
Speaking to reporters about a ceasefire as he left the White House on Friday, US President Joe Biden said: "We're not there yet.”
During a meeting with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Biden also spoke about the deal.
“We’re trying to work out a deal between Israel and Hamas on the hostages being returned and — and immediate ceasefire in Gaza for at least the next six weeks and — and to allow the surge of aid through the entire Gaza Strip — not just the south but the entire Gaza Strip.”
Security sources said Egyptian and US negotiators were still confident a partial or complete agreement would be reached by the middle of next week.
Israel's military campaign began in response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people and involved the seizure of 253 hostages.
The war has caused an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with donor nations turning to air drops of food after aid flows into Gaza dwindled in recent days, UN officials say.
This week, the number of Palestinians killed in Gaza since Oct. 7 passed 30,000, Hamas asserted. Israel has said that over 11,000 of those fatalities were combatants.
One diplomat in the region said, "At the end of the day Hamas wants a truce, but wants a permanent ceasefire more, they are not an army in the full military sense and they don't have access to foreign arms supplies and sooner or later they will start running out of the gun power.”