Republican Donald Trump has a two-percentage point lead over Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a Wall Street Journal poll published on Friday, narrower than the six-point lead in a survey earlier this month over President Joe Biden, who has since withdrawn from the presidential contest.
Trump leads Harris by 49% to 47%, according to the poll of 1,000 registered voters, who had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Progress
Harris has made progress in reuniting the coalition that secured Biden's victory in the 2020 election, a coalition that had been weakening due to concerns about his physical and mental acuity. In a Journal survey conducted shortly after Biden's problematic debate performance on June 27, Black, Latino, and young voters all demonstrated stronger support for Harris than for Biden, as the recent survey suggests.
A shift in the demographic composition of Democratic support could change the states where Harris might be competitive against Trump. Increased support among nonwhite voters could bolster her chances in the more racially and ethnically diverse battleground states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—where Biden has been facing difficulties.
Harris has also sparked a surge of enthusiasm within her party. About four out of five voters in each party now express enthusiasm for their chosen candidate, reversing an earlier imbalance this month where Democrats lagged behind.
'An astounding change'
“Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July, and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her,” said Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee. “This is an astounding change.”
Harris has garnered more support from Democrats than Biden had earlier this month, a crucial development since unifying the party is a candidate's primary task. Harris is backed by 92% of voters who supported Biden in 2020, whereas the president was retaining only 84% of those voters in the earlier survey.
The signs are promising for Vice President Harris and her Democratic party, but If we compare the percentages between the two parties to the same period in the 2020 election, we can observe a stark improvement for the Republican's chances to regain office.
For the Democrats, the presidential race has finally begun.