The cabinet is set to meet Tuesday to weigh a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah that could be cemented in the coming days, a senior official said on Monday.Officials said earlier that an agreement was getting closer though there were still some issues to resolve, while senior Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism even as strikes continued.In Beirut, Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, said there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu changes his mind.”
The proposal is for a 60-day truce, which would be the timeline for Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, giving time for the Lebanese army to gradually deploy to southern Lebanon, effectively sowing shut any opportunity for Hezbollah forces to reestablish themselves.Saab said one sticking point on who would monitor the ceasefire had been resolved in the last 24 hours by agreeing to set up a five-country committee, including France, chaired by the United States.
These would be in addition to Hezbollah’s acceptance of a withdrawal of its own forces to points north of the Litani River, with the US, France, and others committing to help guarantee that Hezbollah will be unable to resupply itself with rockets and other weapons from land, air, or sea.The official specified that the American letter – which will likely not be made public – will delineate between different scenarios: where Israel can act against Hezbollah violations without checking in with any third party, and in what situations would it need to first complain to an international body before taking action.
White House does not comment on reports of an emerging deal
The White House would not comment on Monday on reports of an emerging deal. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters that it “wouldn’t be wise for him to go into much detail at this particular point.”However, Kirby did say the discussions were constructive, and the National Security Council believes “the trajectory of this is going in a positive direction.“We are where we are today because of a lot of back and forth, a lot of discussions, a lot of work, principally by [US special envoy Amos Hochstein] of course, and we believe we’ve reached this point where we’re close,” Kirby said.But the deal is not closed, Kirby emphasized multiple times.“We need to keep at the work to see it through so that we can actually get the ceasefire for which we’ve been working. And we believe we’ve reached this point where we’re close,” he said.Kirby repeatedly tiptoed around specifics of the deal and concluded his briefing by explaining he didn’t want to do or say anything “that might torpedo our chances.”“The most important thing here is that we try to get this ceasefire because it will mean, literally, that lives will be saved,” Kirby said. “And hopefully, over a period of time, that livelihoods will be restored.”Four Lebanese sources told Reuters that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron were expected to announce a ceasefire within 36 hours – or by Wednesday morning – under the existing plans.The French presidency said on Monday evening that the ceasefire discussions have made progress.“We are continuing to work with… our American partners toward this direction… we hope all involved will seize this opportunity as soon as possible,” the statement said.
Responses to the emerging deal
Northern regional council heads expressed outrage at the emerging deal, particularly as it would allow for the return of Lebanese civilians back to the border towns and that there was no way to really ensure that these homes don’t house weapons directed at Israel, several of them told KAN News.Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said earlier in the day, “We haven’t finalized it yet, but we are moving forward.” Asked for comment, Netanyahu’s office said it had nothing to say about the report.CNN reported in the afternoon, citing a source, that Netanyahu reportedly approved a ceasefire with Lebanon “in principle,” during a meeting with Israeli officials on Sunday evening.The Hostages and Missing Families Forum strongly urged that any agreement signed include an “explicit demand for the release of the hostages.” An agreement that excludes the return of hostages “fundamentally violates the value of mutual responsibility that binds our people,” said the forum, adding that any agreement “present[s] a vital opportunity to bring all hostages home. The northern front and the hostages’ release are inseparably linked – we cannot and must not treat them as separate issues.”Hostilities have intensified in parallel with the diplomatic flurry: Over the weekend, Israel carried out powerful airstrikes, one of which killed at least 29 people in central Beirut – while Hezbollah unleashed one of its biggest rocket salvos yet on Sunday, firing 250 missiles.In Beirut, Israeli airstrikes leveled more of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs on Monday, sending clouds of debris billowing over the Lebanese capital.Efforts to clinch a truce appeared to advance last week when Hochstein declared significant progress after talks in Beirut before holding meetings in Israel and then returning to Washington.“We are moving in the direction towards a deal, but there are still some issues to address,” Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said.Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador in Washington, told Army Radio an agreement was close and “it could happen within days... We just need to close the last corners,” according to a post on X by Army Radio senior anchorman Efi Triger.The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah spiraled into full-scale war in September when Israel went on the offensive, pounding wide areas of Lebanon with airstrikes and sending troops into the south to clear towns out of Hezbollah fighters and ammunition. As troops advance, the IDF has shown a steady amount of weapons, including launchers directed at Israel.Hezbollah initiated attacks on Israel on October 8, 2023, in what it said was a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Until those attacks, Israel had not attacked Hezbollah. Since that date, tens of thousands of Israeli residents have evacuated their homes and have since lived as refugees in their own country.Israel has dealt major blows to Hezbollah, killing leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders and inflicting massive destruction in areas of Lebanon where the group holds sway.Lebanon’s Health Ministry says Israeli attacks have killed 3,768 people in Lebanon and forced more than one million people from their homes. Its casualty figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.Hezbollah strikes killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Golan Heights. At least 73 soldiers have been killed in the North and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to authorities.Diplomacy has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km. from the Israeli border.
Enforcing the agreement
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said the test for any agreement would be in the enforcement of two main points.“The first is preventing Hezbollah from moving southward beyond the Litani [River], and the second, preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its force and rearming in all of Lebanon,” Sa’ar said in broadcast remarks to the Knesset.Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel must press on with the war until “absolute victory.” Addressing Netanyahu, he said, “It is not too late to stop this agreement.”
הסכם עם לבנון הוא טעות גדולה. החמצה היסטורית של הזדמנות למגר את החיזבאללה. אני מבין את כל האילוצים והנימוקים, ועדיין מדובר בטעות חמורה. צריך להקשיב למפקדים הלוחמים בשטח, להקשיב לראשי הרשויות. דווקא כעת, כשחיזבאללה מוכה ומשתוקק להפסקת אש, אסור לעצור. כפי שהזהרתי בעבר בעזה אני…
— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) November 25, 2024
But Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter said Israel should reach an agreement in Lebanon.“If we say ‘no’ to Hezbollah being south of the Litani, we mean it,” he told journalists.Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said last week that the group had reviewed and given feedback on the US ceasefire proposal, and any truce was now in Israel’s hands.Branded a terrorist group by the United States, Hezbollah has endorsed Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri of the Shi’ite Amal movement to negotiate.Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.