First, I want to thank all of you who reached out to me with such kind words on the passing of my father, Z”L. It seems that there is bad news and a certain pessimism that is currently surrounding us. Will there be a full attack against Hezbollah in the North? Will Israel attack Hamas in Rafah in the South? Soldiers are dying and seriously wounded on an almost daily basis. What about Iran? We still have a Russia/Ukraine war. Global inflation has cooled down some, but is it going to be short-lived? Will the Houthis succeed in stopping shipping lanes in the Red Sea, causing a spike in oil? These geopolitical questions have us all, including investors, on edge.
This week we read Ki Tisa, the Torah portion dealing with the Golden Calf. Commentators have dealt with Aaron’s role in this episode and how he could’ve been responsible for building an idol.
As I have written previously, Rabbi Baruch Epstein writes at Chabad.org, “Let us draw insight from one of the darkest moments in our history, the day the Golden Calf was created. It was the 16th of Tamuz. The Jewish people, less than six weeks since receiving the Torah at Sinai, panic at Moses’ apparent delay in returning from the mountain top. Frustrated, a mob confronts Aaron and demands that he make for them a god. Hoping to deflate their zeal, Aaron instructs them to ask their wives for their jewelry for use in crafting their new deity. The Jews’ hotheadedness gets the better of their judgment and they eagerly offer up their own personal earrings and bracelets. Aaron, still hoping for his brother’s return and an end to the madness, stalls, declaring: “Tomorrow will be a celebration for God” (see Exodus 32).
The Midrash interprets this statement prophetically; indeed “tomorrow [the 17th of Tamuz] will be [in Moshiach’s time] a celebration for God.”
Imagine Aaron’s predicament. His holy nephew, Hur, was just stoned to death for his attempts to stop this mob. They are ready, willing, and able to do the same to Aaron. His only option to save this gang of thugs from irreversible sin is to build them an idol. And in the midst of this chaos, Aaron has the clarity to foresee and even proclaim: “tomorrow will be a ‘festival’ to God”!”
Investors are very nervous over a potential downturn in financial markets. While intellectually they understand that if they are investing for the long-term there are going to be market drops, emotionally no one likes losing money and a certain sense of anxiety takes over. If I can give one bit of advice, it’s: Don’t panic! Those who panic often end up making lousy decisions, which turn out to be quite costly.
Is now the time for optimism?
Since getting up from the seven-day (Shiva) mourning period, I must admit I’ve been a bit sad. Not sitting and crying, but going around with a general heaviness that my father has passed, and that it’s the end of an era. Much like the whole 12-month mourning process, which slowly reintegrates the mourner back into society, while emotionally I’m sad, intellectually I know that this is natural, and soon enough I will pull myself out of my funk and continue living life with a certain zest.
As my dear wife can attest, I love waking up early in the morning and listening to the birds beginning the day chirping. For me it signals a new day, full of optimism. While times, on a personal level as well as a national level, are currently tough, we need to know that it will get better.
Chill out
Heed the call of Aaron and don’t panic. The future will be better. While I certainly believe that on a national level, it’s important vis-à-vis money as well. I know that it’s not always easy, but you need to relax and stay focused on your long-term goals. When markets drop, no one wants to lose money. But you need to focus on the long-term. These short-term drops will be a blip in history. Just remember, back over the last 20+ years we have experienced a tech bubble burst, 9-11, a financial crisis, corona, the tech selloff, the huge market drop of 2022 and much more. And you know what? Markets are higher now than they have ever been.
It’s important to remember that markets go up and down, and if you made a financial plan, it would have taken this type of market volatility into account. As I have written here many times, the worst thing you can do as an investor is panic and sell everything and then wait for the market to recover. The market tends to recover very quickly. Large market gains often come about in quick and unpredictable spurts, and missing just a few days of strong market returns can substantially erode long-term performance.
Much like in life: Trust the process and everything will work out just fine.
The information contained in this article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the opinion of Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. or its affiliates.
Aaron Katsman is the author of Retirement GPS: How to Navigate Your Way to A Secure Financial Future with Global Investing. www.gpsinvestor.com; aaron@lighthousecapital.co.il