Recently, a credible analysis confirms what has long been suspected: China is a significant and secretive buyer of gold over and above their announced purchases, likely since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started
This revelation aligns with reports previously shared in this space, titled Goldman Shares a Gold Secret: Goldman Sachs had pointed to such activity, and now further legwork by Money Metals’ own analyst confirms it.
In a post titled: Chinese Central Bank Just Secretly Bought 60 Tonnes of Gold substantiates these claims.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is covertly buying very large amounts of gold, adding upward pressure to a tense gold market.
According to Chinese customs, gross gold import into the Beijing region for September accounted for 69 tonnes, which is roughly in line with the U.K.’s gross export to China of 60 tonnes. Source: Jan Nieuwenhuijs of MoneyMetals
The report reveals that China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), covertly purchased approximately 60 tons of gold in September alone (This has been going on since May of 2024) with evidence of tonnage being offloaded from London as far back as May of this year
From Goldman Shares a Gold Secret:
While the PBoC reported no additional purchases after April, Goldman’s NowCast data estimates 50 tonnes of institutional purchases from China on the London OTC market in May.
The September figure noted by Money Metals aligns with customs data indicating large shipments of gold from London to Beijing with a 9 ton shortfall explained by Swiss exports.
Here is Goldman’s explanation of how the Swiss mechanism operates:
Switzerland Excludes Central Bank Gold Flows from Customs Data, Unlike the UK; the Post-2022 Discrepancy Suggesting that Higher London Purchases of Central Bank Gold on their way to China Are Likely in Transit/Stored in Switzerland.
Essentially, Switzerland has become a parking spot for Gold on its way to the Far East now.
While these mechanisms (Off-balance sheet holdings with PBOC and OTC trades to keep price disruption to a minimum) have been known strategies for years, the frequency and scale of such purchases have increased significantly.
Notably, the PLA also has been a buyer for years, as it operates outside the government’s balance sheet, enabling discreet acquisitions under the radar as its own separate entity.
James Rickards has discussed this in the past. Here he is in an interview on topic:
There’s a very good reason to believe, based on Chinese mining output figures, Chinese gold imports, activities of People’s Liberation Army, which moves [and controls some] the gold. I’ve been to China recently. I met with the top gold banks in China. I’ve also been to Switzerland recently and met with refiners there who actually sell gold to the Chinese- Source
This method isn't unique to China. Other nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia also employ similar strategies to quietly accumulate gold without triggering price spikes. The covert nature of these transactions stems from their desire to keep prices low while fortifying reserves.
The BRICS nations, akin to individual gold stackers, are strategically accumulating gold as part of their broader economic initiatives whiel taking care to not raise concerns about supply. Using the terminology of the Oil movie “There Will be Blood”; China and its BRICS partners are drinking the West’s golden milkshake with a straw that goes from Beijing to London.
Goldman Sachs analysis highlights a “reset” in global gold market dynamics—a notable term in light of geopolitical shifts. Accordingly, we’ve unlocked our breakdown of Goldman’s analysis providing readers with a comprehensive view of how such buying impacts the market.
The Bank, echoing our own position has also emphasized that physical gold buying, rather than dollar correlations, is increasingly driving price movements. Hence this clandestine buying has driven prices much more than traditional correlations have since the Ukraine war started and the US confiscated Russia’s USD wealth.
Gold hoarding as is known from history, is part and parcel of a mercantilist world. More on that in a follow up piece
Authored by Vince Lanci for GoldFix
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