2024: A Year of Achievements and Concerns
On December 18, the Dor Moria Analytical Center convened its expert council to summarize the results of its work in 2024. Throughout the year, the center carried out an extensive research program, including eight sociological surveys, four expert studies, and approximately 20 expert meetings and events in the Knesset.
Through large-scale sociological surveys and analysis, Dor Moria confirmed the "Ontological Bubble" hypothesis. The findings revealed that Israeli society is increasingly divided into two simplified worldviews: a secular-liberal perspective and a conservative-religious one.
The phenomenon of the "ontological bubble" involves the fragmentation of complex, state-forming narratives into opposing, irreconcilable, and oversimplified perspectives. These dual narratives hinder the state's ability to function in its traditional form, which once relied on a complex narrative encompassing peoplehood, a political nation, and civil society.
Israel's social divide is not merely a localized feature. Similar trends are evident in the United States, Europe, and other countries. However, Israel's uniqueness lies in the deep intertwining of ideological positions with issues of security, religion, and national identity. These factors make conflicts more emotionally charged and complicate efforts to find compromises.
Moreover, technological and economic transformations, digitalization, and the growth of social mobility exacerbate existing contradictions, further complicating governance.
Trump and Israeli Expectations
During the December 18 session, the Dor Moria Center presented the findings of a sociological survey conducted in late November 2024.
The survey, titled "Israelis' Expectations from Trump and Israel’s Vision for the Future," reveals significant ideological divisions regarding expectations of Donald Trump's policies toward Israel:
Conflict Resolution Models:
- 30% of respondents believe Trump will support the "two states for two peoples" concept.
- 29% expect him to back Israel's annexation of territories.
Approaches to Hamas and Hezbollah:
- 29% anticipate Trump will pursue a military resolution to the conflict.
- 28% believe he will advocate for a diplomatic path.
Trump has become a symbol of polarization. For some, he represents a guarantor of stability and support; for others, he embodies a source of threat. Expectations of Trump mirror the American divide between Democrats and Republicans, superimposed on Israel's internal challenges.
The American polarization significantly amplifies Israel’s societal divisions.
The fragmentation caused by the "ontological bubble" is further exacerbated by modern information technologies. Individuals increasingly isolate themselves in personalized information spaces - “echo chambers." Politicians and media deepen these divisions by appealing to emotions and simplified slogans, rather than fostering rational dialogue.
Competing Solidarities: How Groups Shape the Nation
Experts from the Dor Moria Center have identified that the formation of the "ontological bubble" fosters the emergence of "competing solidarities." In this framework, societal groups coalesce around shared perspectives on reality, actively advancing their interests within the political sphere.
These groups utilize various strategies to promote their agendas:
- Elections: Gaining access to power and legislative processes.
- Lobbying: Influencing policymaking between election cycles.
- Social Mobilization: Protests, advocacy campaigns, and media strategies.
However, not all groups possess equal opportunities. For example, Russian-speaking Israelis face significant challenges:
- Underrepresentation in the Knesset.
- Limited financial resources for advocacy.
- Low voter turnout in national elections.
These limitations hinder their political influence, despite their considerable demographic potential.
Social Media and the Fragmentation of Narratives
Social media exacerbates the problem of "competing solidarities." Complex state narratives are replaced with brief, emotionally charged messages. Individuals become entrenched in "information bubbles," where they are exposed only to content that reinforces their existing views.
Notable examples include the influence of Elon Musk and Donald Trump on American and global politics through social platforms. A single tweet from Musk can spark widespread protests or disrupt congressional operations. Meanwhile, Trump uses social media to shape global political discourse and territorial claims.
The emotionally charged nature of social media content and the immediate audience reactions undermine traditional mechanisms of governance. This erodes trust in authorities and fosters a perception of government decisions as tools serving narrow group interests.
Israel's Future: A Technological Bridge Between the West and the Global South
How can the societal divide be overcome?
Analysts at the Dor Moria Center see the solution in creating a unifying vision for Israel’s future. This vision has been shaped over 2023-2024 through a series of research projects and expert discussions.
In a changing world, Israel has the potential to become the hub of a new Abrahamic Regional Cluster, connecting the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. This concept is built on three pillars:
- Technological Leadership
- Advancing innovation in high-tech industries
- Strengthening its position in cybersecurity
- Achieving breakthroughs in medicine and green technologies
- Regional Integration
- Establishing localized production chains
- Introducing Abrahamic Banking, which aligns with the principles of Halakha and Sharia
- Intercultural Dialogue
- Expanding the Abraham Accords with Arab countries
- Promoting Jewish-Islamic cooperation
How to Achieve These Goals?
Experts propose three primary strategies:
- Strengthen Technological Independence:Transform Israel into a regional innovation hub.
- Foster Internal Stability:Encourage dialogue between religious and secular groups to build domestic harmony.
- Develop a Balanced Foreign Policy:
- Deepen ties with the Global South.
- Enhance Israel’s role as a regional mediator.
- Maintain partnerships with the U.S. without compromising independence.
The Key to Success:
The success of this strategy hinges on Israel’s ability to combine technological advancement, religious identity, and an independent foreign policy to navigate the complexities of the modern world.
This article was written in cooperation with Dor Moriah Association