A fundamental shift is underway in military strategy, moving away from an exclusive focus on Qualitative Military Edge (QME) toward a more holistic approach that embraces both quality and quantity. This new doctrine, dubbed the "Moneyball Military," recognizes that in modern conflicts, the ability to rapidly produce and deploy large numbers of inexpensive, effective systems is as critical as sophisticated, high-cost weaponry.
The catalyst for this change has been a series of recent conflicts, most notably the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military's ability to challenge one the world’s largest militaries was not solely a result of high-tech Western arms. It was significantly driven by the rapid, large-scale integration of commercial and dual-use technologies – such as drones, satellite communication, cloud computing, and AI – which proved to be a powerful force multiplier for intelligence, targeting, and battlefield decision-making.
This approach is not new. For years, states and non-state actors like Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have built their arsenals on a "cheap and plentiful" strategy, manufacturing vast numbers of low-cost drones and rockets to overwhelm traditional air defenses. This model presents a formidable asymmetric threat, which is now driving the rapid development of equally innovative and agile methods of interception, including directed energy weapons and advanced electronic warfare. These new counter-drone technologies require a fundamental rethinking of traditional military procurement and deployment, a necessity underscored by Israel’s ability to intercept the vast majority of over 1,000 drones launched by its adversaries.
Redefining Procurement and The Need for Agile Supply Chains
For Western militaries, adopting the "Moneyball" model requires a radical departure from traditional, decades-long procurement cycles. It means shifting from an over-reliance on a small number of traditional defense contractors and instead tapping into the vast, innovative civilian tech market. This new approach seeks to find creative solutions that can be rapidly scaled up, manufactured, and deployed to flood the battlefield with large quantities of expendable, autonomous systems.
Programs like the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the "Project Replicator" (an initiative to cheaply produce large amounts of weapons or systems for the U.S. military, focusing on autonomous systems such as aerial drones or unmanned vessels) are at the forefront of this change. These initiatives aim to bypass bureaucratic hurdles and accelerate the delivery of cutting-edge technologies. They represent a move from specifying detailed technical solutions to simply defining a problem and allowing the private sector to compete with innovative answers. However, deeply entrenched regulatory and bureaucratic barriers remain a significant challenge, slowing down the pace of change.
To address this, there is a growing need for international collaboration among like-minded nations. By forging partnerships, these countries can quickly fill gaps in their defense capabilities, share critical dual-use technologies, and build resilient and agile supply chains that are not dependent on slow and cumbersome processes. This cooperation is vital to ensure a swift response to emerging threats and to maintain a technological edge.
The Israeli Opportunity: From High-Tech to High-Volume
Israel, with its unique and vibrant technology ecosystem, is perfectly positioned to become a leader in this new defense paradigm. Decades of fighting asymmetrical wars have provided invaluable experience, and the nation's high-tech industry is a global leader in many of the key technologies driving this shift, including AI, cybersecurity, data processing, and imaging.
While the Israeli defense establishment has already begun integrating dual-use technologies and streamlining processes, bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles still present a significant challenge, much like in the U.S. Overcoming these barriers is crucial to fully harness the power of local innovation and ensure the military can rapidly adapt to new threats.
By removing these obstacles, the Israeli Ministry of Defense can establish formal, efficient partnerships with the country's high-tech sector. This not only strengthens Israel's own security but also positions the nation as an invaluable technological and security asset for its allies, especially the U.S. Collaborating with the Pentagon to ease regulatory hurdles for Israeli defense-tech startups would facilitate their entry into the U.S. market, benefiting both countries and contributing to a shared technological and strategic advantage. In a world where the speed of innovation is a key measure of military power, embracing the "Moneyball" concept is no longer an option—it is a necessity.
Fusing Quality and Quantity: The Evolution of "Small and Smart"
This new paradigm doesn't discard the bedrock of Western military strategy – the concept of a lean and agile force that leverages superior technology to maintain a decisive edge. Rather, it represents an evolution of that model. The "Moneyball Military" recognizes that a small, highly professional army, no matter how technologically advanced, can be overwhelmed by sheer numbers and the rapid proliferation of low-cost, effective systems.
The future lies not in a tradeoff between quality and quantity, but in fusing the two. Militaries are already adjusting to this new reality by increasing their budgets to add a quantitative factor in the form of affordable, mass-produced systems that can be deployed faster. However, they will also remain reliant on qualitative, expensive legacy weapon systems.
Embracing the new military paradigm allows a nation to fulfill the timeless axiom of ancient strategist Sun Tzu: "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." In the modern context, this means a nation knows itself, for example, by leveraging its qualitative strengths – advanced technology and professional forces – while acknowledging its vulnerabilities to quantitative threats. It knows its enemy by understanding and countering their reliance on low-cost, high-volume tactics. By fusing these insights, a military can ensure a decisive advantage in the complexities of modern warfare.
Amos Yadlin, a retired major-general and former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, is the president and founder of MIND Israel.
Dan Yachin is a senior researcher at The Critical & Emerging Technologies Program at MIND Israel.