Yes, the coup d'état on June 30 systemically caused Egypt's crisis. Let's say it out loud, it was causation, systemic causation
By ROUBA IBRAHIMIUpdated: OCTOBER 7, 2020 08:43Egyptian soldier sits on a bulldozer near Rafah 370(photo credit: REUTERS)
Yes, the coup d'état on June 30 systemically caused Egypt's crisis. Let's say it out loud, it was causation, systemic causation.Semantics matter. According to George Lakoff, a cognitive linguist, there is a difference between systemic and direct causation. Bombing a hospital and destroying it and killing those inside is direct causation. Any local application of force that produces a local effect in place and time is direct causation. When causation is direct, the word "cause" is easy to understand.Systemic causation, because it is less familiar, is more crucial to understand, and has to be learned. It goes beyond the immediate local situation. A systemic cause, as Lakoff states, may be one of many. It may need some special conditions, and may be indirect, working via a network of more direct causes. We drill a lot more oil, burn a lot more gas, put a lot more carbon dioxide in the air, the atmosphere of the earth heats up, more moisture evaporates from the oceans producing bigger storms in some places and more droughts and fires in other places: systemic causation.The coup in Egypt has led to pro-legitimacy sit-ins at Rabaa and Nahdah. Breaking up the sit-ins by force has resulted in two things: (1) violence in Sinai against the army and police; and (2) protests across the country asking for revenge for the killings of the sit-ins' protesters. Violence and demonstrations led to the announcement of the state of emergency in the country for a month, and then for two more months. Declaring the state of emergency has undermined the economy, making no foreign investor want to come, disrupted the tourism industry, and stifled freedoms.To the government, the crisis is primarily about direct causation. To them, the problem is the direct ''terror'' of the Muslim Brotherhood. When the media reports on Egypt, it reports that direct ''terror.'' If the army Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is understood as addressing the 'Muslim Brotherhood, and he proposes directly bombing the Muslim Brotherhood, the natural question is whether that eliminates the daily direct ''terror'' and improves the country's economic health. When the government admits it does not and extends the state of emergency for two more months, the question naturally arises: Why bomb when it won't solve the direct problem, but would result in more problems?The government doesn't understand systemic causation. It continues demonizing the opposition and stifling freedoms, proposing no real initiative to get out of the crisis. The coup systemically caused the current ferocious crisis in Egypt. And consequently, it caused the loss of life, the damage of democracy, and economic loss.The precise details of Egypt's crisis cannot be predicted in advance, any more than when a worker in the coal mines has black lung disease, or a drunk driver has an accident. Finally, systemic causation has to be taught and its cases studied. The causal effects get bigger with time. We cannot just adapt to it. The costs cannot be calculated. What Egypt faces is huge.The writer is an Egyptian artist and a PhD student.
