A grim milestone was set to be marked on Friday in the Russia-Ukraine War with the first anniversary of the Russian military’s invasion on February 24, 2022. High-end estimates of combined total military and civilian deaths are almost 300,000 casualties.
Russian and Ukrainian claims
Military losses are disputed, but it is widely agreed that the death toll has been monumental. The Ukrainian military claimed on Wednesday that over 145,000 Russian military personnel had been killed since the war's beginning. The White House claimed last Friday that 30,000 Wagner mercenaries had been killed in the war.
In January, Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen told Danish TV2 that Ukraine had lost around 100,000 fighters in the invasion. In November, US Joint Chief of Staff chairman Mark Milley estimated that each side had lost at least 100,000 soldiers.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Military claimed that since the war began that its forces had destroyed 3350 Russian tanks, 6593 armored vehicles, 2352 artillery pieces, 471 multiple launch rocket systems, 244 anti-air systems, 299 aircraft, 287 helicopters, 2029 drones, 18 warships, and 5215 other vehicles.
The Russian military said on Wednesday that since the beginning of the war, it has destroyed 7,994 armored tanks and other armored vehicles, 4,189 artillery pieces, 1,038 MLRs, 405 anti-air systems, 387 aircraft, 210 helicopters, 3,222 drones and 8,501 other military vehicles.
The equipment losses claims by both militaries have been heavily disputed, with open-source intelligence groups documenting with visual verification putting the numbers significantly lower.
Prior to the invasion, Russia had amassed almost 200,000 soldiers on Ukraine’s borders. Following a September announcement of partial mobilization by Russian President Vladimir Putin, some 300,000 Russian reservists were pressed into duty, according to the Russian military. Ukrainian intelligence has warned ahead of a spring offensive that the Kremlin was set to draft between 300,000 and 500,000 more citizens. Russia has approximately 850,000 active duty troops. The CIA Fact Book estimated that as many as 50,000 Wagner mercenaries have been fighting in Ukraine.
Following a general mobilization announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky following the invasion, the CIA estimates that the Ukrainian military possesses 700,000 active personnel.
At least 8,006 Ukrainian civilians had been killed and 13,287 injured in the last 12 months, according to the UN Human Rights Commission, adding that the figure is likely much higher. The UK Defense Ministry noted on Tuesday that other analyses have put the figure at 16,000 civilians killed. The United Nations Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said that 90% of civilians had been killed by wide-area-of-effect explosives.
“These numbers, which we are publishing today, lay bare the loss and suffering inflicted on people since Russia’s armed attack began on 24 February last year; suffering I saw for myself first-hand when I visited Ukraine in December,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.
“And our data are only the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “The toll on civilians is unbearable. Amid electricity and water shortages during the cold winter months, nearly 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Some 14 million people have been displaced from their homes.”
Civilian material loss has also been extensive. In October, the Kyiv School of Economics published a report claiming that the documented damage to buildings and infrastructure amounted to more than $127 billion as of September.
KSE estimated 135,800 destroyed buildings, among them 119,900 private homes and 15,700 apartment buildings. In August, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimated that 140,000 buildings had been destroyed, and 3.5 million people had been displaced or left homeless as a result.
Türk said in the OHCHR statement that "older people and people with disabilities have faced immense challenges, in some cases unable to reach bomb shelters or having to spend prolonged periods in basements in conditions affecting their health.”
The school’s report said that 978 medical facilities had also been destroyed.
The UK Defense Ministry noted on Tuesday that "Throughout January 2023, there was a very high intensity, and worsening trend, of damage being inflicted on both medical and educational facilities."
Some 1,270 schools and 786 kindergartens were destroyed in the war by September, the KSE report said.
“Students have seen their education halted or disrupted by attacks on educational facilities,” Türk said.
UNESCO said that by Wednesday, 242 cultural sites had also been destroyed, including 106 religious buildings. By September, the KSE put this figure at 775 cultural facilities and 80 religious buildings. The World Council of Churches on Wednesday claimed that at least 494 churches, synagogues and mosques had been destroyed, used by Russian soldiers as firing positions.
With a presumed spring and summer Russian offensive, these figures are set to rise even higher – with no end in sight.
With a presumed spring and summer Russian offensive, these figures are set to rise even higher -- with no end in sight.