[Islamabad] Speculation is mounting in Pakistan that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could ease Imran Khan’s solitary confinement. This belief stems from the perceived rapport between Khan and Trump during Trump’s presidency, which some think could translate into diplomatic backing for Khan.
The upcoming US presidential election on November 5, a race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, is closely watched not only in the US but also in Pakistan, where people are keenly interested in its potential impact on their country.
Under Trump’s administration, US-Pakistan relations saw notable engagements, with Trump’s South Asia policy sometimes aligning with Khan’s approach. However, some argue that Khan’s release might happen in November regardless of the US election, due to potential changes in Pakistan’s internal political or legal landscape.
How would a Trump presidency help Imran Khan?
Though a Trump-led US administration could exert international pressure, decisions about Khan’s fate ultimately rest within Pakistan’s political and judicial framework. US-Pakistan relations have historically been volatile, yet US elections continue to capture significant attention in Islamabad.
Pakistani leaders, especially Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, are closely watching the US electoral process.
In July 2019, then-Prime Minister Khan visited the White House, where the warm rapport between the two leaders was evident. The meeting was considered a diplomatic success for Khan, boosting his international profile and hinting at a thaw in US-Pakistan relations. The two leaders met again in January 2020, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where President Trump referred to Khan as “a very good friend of mine.”
This dynamic shifted, however, when Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
Relations between the US and Pakistan cooled under the Biden administration, marked by a noticeable lack of high-level engagement. A telling sign was the absence of direct communication between President Biden and Prime Minister Khan during Biden’s term.
This diplomatic distance contrasts sharply with the Trump-Khan era’s cordiality, underscoring how changes in US leadership can reshape bilateral relations.
In late October, over 60 Democratic Party members wrote to President Joe Biden, urging him to leverage US influence on Pakistan to release political prisoners, including Imran Khan, and to address human rights violations.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office dismissed the letter, claiming it was based on misunderstandings about Pakistan’s political situation. Recently, the Pakistani American Public Affairs Committee endorsed Donald Trump, citing hopes that his election could improve US-Pakistan relations and push for the release of political prisoners.
Rumors circulating in Islamabad’s media suggest that an American delegation recently met with Khan in Adiala Jail.
The rumored meeting has sparked speculation about potential US diplomatic involvement in Pakistan’s political situation. Government sources have neither confirmed nor denied the encounter, deepening the intrigue.
Imran Khan, former cricket star and Pakistan’s prime minister from 2018 to 2022, was ousted in a no-confidence vote. He has claimed that the US was behind his removal, a charge the US has repeatedly denied.
Later, Khan redirected his accusations, alleging that former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa was responsible for his ouster. He has been imprisoned for over a year, despite acquittals in multiple cases.
During this period, his wife, Bushra Bibi, two elderly sisters, and several close associates were also detained but have since been released. In May 2023, Khan was arrested by a large force of police and Pakistan Rangers, leading to nationwide protests.
He was convicted in August 2023 for allegedly buying and selling government gifts illegally. An Islamabad court sentenced Khan to three years in prison, and three days later, the Election Commission of Pakistan barred him from public office for five years.
PTI members have vowed to carry on Khan’s mission in his absence, despite arrests, alleged torture, and intimidation ahead of the February 2024 general elections. Khan also faces convictions in three additional cases, including charges of treason and incitement.
A UN working group has called for Khan’s unconditional release, labeling his detention arbitrary and a violation of human rights conventions.
Some PTI officials believe a Trump victory could greatly improve Khan’s situation, with Trump possibly pushing for his “very good friend’s” release if he returns to office.
Senior PTI leader Taimor Saleem Khan Jhagra told The Media Line, “I believe the upcoming US presidential election could significantly impact the challenges faced by Imran Khan, who remains unjustly imprisoned.”
He noted the “close personal rapport between Khan and Trump, who referred to Khan as a very good friend,” suggesting this could be crucial if Trump is reelected.
Jhagra pointed to recent appeals from US Congress members and other influential figures calling on Pakistan to release Khan on humanitarian grounds. “These appeals give us hope,” he said, “but the reality remains complex.”
“We must consider how much leverage any US administration would be willing to exert, especially given the intricate dynamics of Pakistan’s internal politics and the influence of the powerful establishment,” he emphasized.
While we are hopeful, we are also realistic. We understand that significant international support would be necessary to change Khan’s predicament.“While we are hopeful, we are also realistic. We understand that significant international support would be necessary to change Khan’s predicament. If Trump is reelected, we hope he will stand up for democratic values and human rights in Pakistan,” Jhagra concluded, expressing cautious optimism within PTI.
Dr. Farhat Asif, an Islamabad-based geopolitical expert, told The Media Line, “A potential Trump reelection could subtly shape Pakistan’s domestic landscape, particularly concerning Khan’s imprisonment and the military-civil dynamic.”
Asif observed that “any influence from a Trump administration would be grounded in US strategic interests, particularly in South Asia, such as regional security and countering China’s influence, rather than purely humanitarian concerns.”