Russia is at a crossroads in the Middle East, having lost its Syrian ally with the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Now Moscow is looking to shift its forces from Syria to other places.
One potential location is eastern Libya. It could also seek to carve out closer ties with Egypt, Algeria and other countries. Russia’s overall goal will be to preserve some kind of influence in Syria, while finding other options. This is important because Syria was a key client state of the Soviet Union and a friend of Moscow for fifty years.
Having seen major changes in Damascus, Russia faces a setback in terms of influence. Its forces in Syria are being withdrawn. It will want to preserve something, but its military footprint seems likely to be reduced to near-zero.
Russia will continue to have its close ties with Iran, while also still working with China. Russia is part of the growing number of countries that want to create a multi-polar world order.
They want to re-write the world order that began with the US victory in the Cold War and the US role in the Gulf War in 1991. This saw Moscow’s influence eroded. Russia has worked over the last thirty years to change things. Having lost Assad, it potentially faces a new crisis.
Russia faces decisions in Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russia also faces decisions in Ukraine. Russia’s multi-year war in Ukraine seems to be paying off. Ukraine is suffering casualties and the attrition strategy of Moscow is working. Russia is making gains. Ukraine has trouble replacing losses. Russia knows this but it also is seeing some diminishing returns in Ukraine.
With the incoming Trump administration, Russia likely hopes the US might find a way to make a deal in Ukraine in which Moscow gets some of what it wants.
The Ukraine war has isolated Russia in Europe and many countries that were once keen on appeasing Moscow or plugging Europe’s energy needs into Russia, no longer rely on Moscow. This is important because it has meant there is a kind of inflection point. Russia is now heading in another direction.
These twin processes in Ukraine and the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime, present Russia with important choices. These are potentially more important choices than many other countries. For instance, the BRICS partners of Russia; China, Brazil, South Africa, India, will largely pursue similar policies over the next year.
There may be crisis, such as over Taiwan, but these countries don’t face the crossroads that Russia likely faces. This is why watching Moscow in the early months of 2025 will be important.