Washington is growing tired of Iranian-backed militia threats in Iraq. After protesters were suppressed, the US released the following message:
“The United States is outraged that peaceful demonstrators who took to the streets to urge reform were met with threats and brutal violence.
“Moreover, the violation of Iraqi sovereignty and rule of law by armed militias harms all Iraqis and their country. We welcome every effort by the government to hold accountable the militias, thugs, and vigilante groups for their attacks against Iraqis exercising their right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly as well as for their assault on the rule of law.”
The larger context is that attacks on US forces in Iraq continued this year after the Biden administration came into office. This problem goes back to May 2019, when the Trump administration sent secretary of state Mike Pompeo to the region to warn of threats coming from Iran’s role in Iraq and the Gulf.
Tensions grew when Iran downed a US drone and there were attacks on Saudi Arabia from Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq began using 107-mm. rockets to strike at US facilities in Baghdad, Taji, Balad, Qayarra and elsewhere.
In the fall of 2019, pro-Iran groups linked to the Popular Mobilization Units and the Badr Organization accused Israel of airstrikes. Attacks increased, and the US eventually responded in December 2019 with airstrikes that killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Iran retaliated with an attack on Al-Asad base in Iraq, and the US started to withdraw forces from almost all its facilities in Iraq, except Union III near the US Embassy, the airport in Baghdad and Erbil in the Kurdistan Region.
Iran then shifted its strategy to increasingly target Al-Asad, the airport, the US Embassy and then Erbil last fall.
In early 2021, Iran attacked with rockets and drones, which constituted a major development and represented a new threat. A hangar was damaged at Al-Asad base in May by another Iranian drone supplied to pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
The US carried out a retaliatory series of airstrikes under Biden, hitting Iranian-backed groups in Syria on February 26.
The administration was also looking at how Iran was suppressing protesters and killing dissidents.
Largely, the administration didn’t want Iraq to push US forces to leave. The US is already in a precarious position in Syria, where it has ended an oil concession and may cut funding for anti-ISIS fighters.
Former president Donald Trump had sought to reduce US forces in Iraq and Syria, with only several thousand personnel remaining. Erbil is not a major hub for the US because the Kurdistan Region is generally sympathetic and friendly to the US.
With Brett McGurk and some key officials coming back with the Biden administration, there should be focus on stability in Iraq. Under the Trump administration, there was some “strategic dialogue” with Iraq, but the Iranian-backed militias wanted the US out.
“We reaffirm the US government’s enduring commitment to the Iraqi people and a strong, sovereign, and prosperous Iraq,” the US said in a statement.
“In the wake of the drone attack, the prospect of a military response was discussed within the Biden administration,” The Washington Post reported.
The question is, What reaction will the drone incident entail?
Others in the administration want restraint, the report said.
A Daily Caller report said: “The administration is looking hard at a broad range of responses to Shi’ite militia aggression against Americans in Iraq.”
“This individual said officials would seek Biden’s approval for the strike orders sometime soon, but could not specify a specific time frame,” the report said. “The first source with knowledge of the situation suggested the meeting will take place Friday, though this was not independently confirmed by the Caller.”
This leaves many questions about what the US is thinking regarding Iraq. No response to the drone strikes has been released, so it appears the US has taken a wait-and-see approach.
The US statement on the protesters shows the US is paying close attention on the ground. However, Washington knows how tenuous the US role is in Iraq. Upsetting the apple cart now may not be in the cards.