“Mr. Secretary, does the president know what’s going on?” Fox News’ Chris Wallace asked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken point-blank on Sunday, during an interview about the chaotic American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Wallace’s question came after he grilled Blinken over recent remarks US President Joe Biden made that Wallace said were just “flat wrong.” These included saying that al-Qaeda is gone from Afghanistan, and that there have been no questions by US allies of American credibility as a result of the withdrawal.
The idea that the president – whose campaign last year against Donald Trump underlined his vast experience in foreign policy – does not know “what’s going in” is a damning one that Blinken tried to deflect, and which Biden needs to de-fang as his approval ratings sink below 50% in the wake of the Afghanistan debacle and the corona surge.
With Biden looking to gain Congressional approval of a $1 trillion infrastructure plan and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal, he politically needs to project an image of strength, and a steady hand, an image badly tarnished by the recent developments in Afghanistan.
It is precisely into that reality that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, scheduled to leave on Tuesday for Washington, now wades. The scheduled meeting on Thursday in the Oval Office between the two men will be an opportunity for the president to show – in answer to Wallace’s question – that he knows very well what is “going on” in the world, and is in complete commander-in-chief control of the situation.
Biden and Bennett will talk, of course, about Iran, the Palestinians, the situation in Gaza, and the US-Israel alliance, but both men will also be guided by their own domestic political calculations.
For Biden, the most important calculation is to demonstrate that despite the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul, he remains sturdy and firmly in charge of international affairs.
In comments that will be carefully scripted for him to recite to the press either just before or just after he meets Bennett, Biden will take pains to present an image of a US president who has a mastery of what is happening around the globe, and is leading events, not being led by them.
Hosting Bennett at this time will enable Biden to show he is a foreign policy maven, and a calm, even hand in the White House – the antithesis of his predecessor, who was widely viewed as anything but.
To cut this figure, however, Biden will need Bennett to play along. The last thing Biden needs right now is for Bennett to contradict him or take issue with US policies, even politely.
In that sense, the US president is fortunate his Israeli interlocutor is the novice Bennett, and not his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu.
Had Netanyahu been in power now and the US was poised – as they are, if the Iranians were just willing – to reenter the Iranian nuclear deal, Netanyahu could have been counted on to slam it publicly, thereby encouraging opposition from Republicans and even some Democrats to the deal. Right now the last thing Biden needs is an international leader at the White House further calling into question his judgment on international affairs.
What Biden does need politically is a meeting with Bennett where the prime minister praises him for his international leadership, not where he publicly takes him to task for rushing headlong back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the nuclear deal is formally known.
And all of that creates a dilemma for Bennett, who is as opposed to the Iranian deal as Netanyahu was, but who wants to show that one can disagree with the Democratic administration without being disagreeable to them.
That, however, will be a challenge.
On one hand, Bennett surely realizes that the only leverage he has with Biden on the Iranian dossier is the administration’s concern that he might go public with his opposition, as Netanyahu did, thereby stirring up and encouraging domestic opposition to the deal – though without Netanyahu’s international stature, Bennett’s opposition will have less impact.
Bennett also surely realizes that the Americans are well aware of Israel’s concerns and considerations, have heard them a million times, and that what Israel says to the administration quietly in back rooms really makes no difference if Washington is, as it seems, intent on re-entering the deal.
The administration would like nothing better than to be able to say after the Biden-Bennett meeting: “We had fruitful discussions with our Israeli friends about the deal, and are taking their concerns into consideration.” And then they could go ahead and do whatever they want, without fear of Israel rattling the cage from the outside and fomenting domestic political opposition to the deal.
Yet on the other hand, if Bennett decides to take on the president publicly over Iran, then he risks antagonizing a leader with whom he will need to work closely over the next two years.
These types of “first meetings” between leaders go a long way toward setting the tone of the relationship. Personal relations at the top are not what determines relations between countries, but they do grease the wheels and can ensure that those relations run smoothly.
The first meeting Netanyahu held with president Barack Obama at the White House in May 2009 was a famous flop, and it set a negative tone for their relationship over the next eight years.
Bennett cannot afford a similar situation.
Yet like Biden, he too has his own domestic political considerations. With the exception of a meeting in Amman with Jordan’s King Abdullah in July that was not made public until it was over, this will be Bennett’s maiden diplomatic trip as prime minister.
He will be at pains to present himself as a statesman, thereby stepping out of Netanyahu’s shadow and pulling abreast of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, whose own job enables him to cultivate the image of a statesman and diplomat – something that will serve Lapid well when he is scheduled to step into the prime minister’s shoes in two years. This trip will allow Bennett to look prime ministerial, something that – 73 days after taking office – he very much still needs to do.
With Netanyahu continuously saying that Bennett and Lapid are diplomatic lightweights unable to stand up to American pressure, Bennett will – to appeal to his natural constituency and other right-wing voters – need to show that he can do just that. Yet he will need to do so while being sensitive to Biden’s political concerns, and the president’s need at this time not to be challenged by an ally.
This would be a tall enough order to fill even for a seasoned diplomat. All the more so for someone new to the world of high-stakes diplomacy.