UK COVID-19 vaccine trial may fail due to low transmission in population
There is a 50% chance the trial may give 'no result.'
By DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDSVial 1 of Box 1. This is the vaccine candidate to be used in Phase 1 clinical trial at the Clinical Biomanufacturing Facility (CBF) in Oxford, Britain, April 2, 2020. Picture taken April 2, 2020(photo credit: SEAN ELIAS/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine's efficacy.Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.“It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys," he said. "It's a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all."We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining."The Oxford team is not the only one facing this predicament. So far, eight potential vaccines have reached the stage of human trials: four in China, two in the US, one in Germany and the one of the Oxford team. With cases dwindling, all of the teams are looking for hotspots globally where they can conduct their trials.“You think we've got a problem?" Hill asked. "What would you do if you were in China? There are three Chinese companies looking for Phase Three and there’s no COVID in China. So what do they do?"Much is riding on a successful outcome for Hills' team, as they have already joined forces with AstraZeneca to develop the vaccine. The US has already laid claim to almost a third of the one billion doses the company is planning to manufacture, while the British government has already agreed to foot the bill for 100 million doses, of which it was hoped that 30 million would be ready for UK citizens by September.However, the professor told the Telegraph that Oxford University had secured "hardwired" assurances against what he called "vaccine nationalism."
“The reputational damage to the university would be enormous if we provided the vaccine only for the UK and US and not for the rest of those countries of the world where it's very likely the pandemic would still be raging,” he said.
