Will Canada’s election results impact on ties with Israel?
Trudeau's Liberals won 157 of the 338 seats in parliament, 13 seats shy of a majority and 27 seats fewer than the 2015 parliamentary vote.
By HERB KEINONCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Davos, Switzerland.(photo credit: AMOS BEN-GERSHOM/GPO)
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party retained power in Monday’s election, but fell short of a majority government; Trudeau ruled out a coalition and is instead opting for a minority government.What this may mean, according to various interpretations of the Canadian results, is a left turn by the Canadian government to get the votes from opposition parties needed for Trudeau to push through the legislation he wants.“Canada’s Trudeau keeps the wheel but prepares for left turn,” ran a Reuter’s headline on Tuesday. And a Washington Post op-ed on Thursday was headlined “Trudeau’s lost majority will mean a sharp left turn for Canada.”“Awarded a second term but robbed of his parliamentary majority, Trudeau must once again rely on the support of smaller left-wing parties to govern, in this case both the New Democrats and the unexpectedly resurgent Bloc Quebecois,” J. J. McuCullogh wrote in the Post.Trudeau’s Liberals won 157 of the 338 seats in parliament, 13 seats shy of a majority and 27 seats fewer than in the 2015 parliamentary vote.While the Québec separatist BQ won 32 seats, the Left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) won 24 seats – making the party of MP Jagmeet Singh a likely kingmaker.From Israel's point of view, the question is what could a potential left turn in Ottawa mean for Canadian-Israeli ties?Former Canadian ambassador Vivian Bercovici, who served in Israel from 2014 to 2016, questioned the premise that Canada was poised for a sharp left turn. She said Trudeau has a “pretty resounding mandate for a minority government,” and that she did not foresee a major shift in foreign policy, which in any event was not Trudeau’s strong suit or top priority.Nevertheless, she said, there could be two areas where he might be under pressure to modify Canada’s approach to Israel: the first is “if there is some sort of military flare-up in the Middle East involving Israel,” and the second is regarding Canada’s bid for a UN Security Council seat in 2021.One of the criteria for winning a seat on the Security Council, she said, may be “bashing Israel.” Though Bercovici said that Trudeau has backed off on that, a number of members of his caucus have not.
Bercovici said that the election results will make Trudeau “somewhat reliant” on the NDP. And that reliance could prove problematic for Israel.“We do know that this particular configuration of the NDP is hostile to Israel,” she said. “The leader [Singh] has made many statements indicating support of BDS, with very little in the way of reservation, and many of his caucus members are hard-Left on Israel – like really anti-Israel – such as Niki Ashton. And this is where things could get kind of messy.”The other kingmaker is the BQ, but she said that although Québec “generally happens not to like Israel very much,” all this party “cares about is Québec,” and they are “not going to influence foreign policy.”Bercovici said that the true indicator of whether there will be a shift in Canadian foreign policy is whether Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland will retain her position.Bercovici characterized Freeland as a “steady, smart, capable minister who has been fine on Israel,” and who wheeled matters back from what looked like a negative direction on Israel after she replaced Trudeau’s first foreign minister Stéphane Dion in 2017. Dion’s “first shot” after being appointed in November 2015, Bercovici noted, was to say Canada needed to return to its traditional “honest broker” role in the Middle East.“What, we weren’t an honest broker before then?” she asked.Alan Baker, who served as Israel’s ambassador to Canada from 2004 to 2008, also said that he did not feel the election results would have a dramatic impact on the direction of Israel-Canada ties.As opposed to Trudeau’s predecessor Stephen Harper, Baker said, the current prime minister “never had deep affection for Israel. He’ll go in the direction he feels is best for him.”At the same time, he said, “the Jewish community of Canada is very strong, and they contributed to Trudeau, so he will not want to offend the people who have given him financial support.”
