Yamina under Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked will pass the electoral threshold and be the deciding factor in the election if Communications Minister Yoaz Hendel and political ally MK Zvika Hauser join it, a new poll has found.
The poll was carried out by Menahem Lazar of Panels Politics on behalf of Maariv, The Jerusalem Post’s sister publication.
Yamina with Hendel and Hauser would receive four seats in this scenario. The Netanyahu bloc would receive 60 seats, the anti-Bibi bloc (including Ra’am) would receive 50, and the Joint List six, the poll found.
This would make opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu dependent on Yamina for the 61st vote and ability to form a government.
Shaked and Hendel held talks this past week and are reportedly close to a deal. Hendel and Hauser were part of Justice Minister Gideon Saar’s New Hope party, but were left out when Sa’ar and Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced on Sunday evening that New Hope and Gantz’s Blue and White party were merging.
The exact results of the poll were Likud 36, Yesh Atid 23, Blue and White-New Hope (BWNH) 12, Religious Zionism 9, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 7, Labor 6, Joint List 6, Yisrael Beytenu 5, Ra’am 4 and Yamina 4.
Meretz did not pass the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the general vote, finishing with only 2.5%.
Without Hendel and Hauser, Yamina also would fall under the electoral threshold. and the Netanyahu bloc would finish with an absolute majority of 61, the poll found.
In this scenario, Yesh Atid, BWNH, Religious Zionism and Yisrael Beytenu would each gain a seat.
The seat added to Religious Zionism would be the Netanyahu bloc’s 61st.
A similar poll with Yamina, not including Hendel and Hauser, was taken a week ago. The major differences are that Yesh Atid grew from 23 to 24 while Blue and White and New Hope shrank from their current nine and five seats respectively to a combined 13. Also noticeable is that Yamina shrank from 2.6% to 2.2% of the general vote, while Meretz grew from 2.1% to 2.5%.
The poll was conducted among 711 Israelis over the age of 18, of whom 614 were Jewish and 97 Arab. The maximum margin of error was 4.2%.