Israel-Hamas War: What happened on Day 146?

CNN’s report on Wednesday, that Israel may be closer now than ever before to attacking Hezbollah in a larger-scale war, is likely overblown.

In actuality, while the IDF still may very well start a general war with the Lebanese terror group in the coming months or years, the chances of this happening imminently are probably lower now than at most points since October.

The CNN story appears to be a carefully calculated leak from US officials to pressure Hezbollah into finally agreeing to a deal in which its Radwan fighters withdraw beyond anti-tank missile range, which would roughly be achieved in many places by moving north of the Litani River.

A calculated leak 

These officials are frustrated that their efforts, along with those of France, have made no real progress in getting the Lebanese-based terrorist group to agree to a deal.

In all scenarios, the US wants to avoid a general war between Hezbollah and Israel. This is not only to avoid the large-scale destruction expected on both sides: It is also to avoid Washington being drawn into a broader war between Western interests and Iranian ones.

A CROWD in Tehran watches an address, on the screen by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in November. Hezbollah is virtually a state within a state, sucking the lifeblood out of Lebanon at the instigation of Iran, says the writer. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

To date, all US military interventions in the Middle East during the war have been carefully tailored and circumscribed to avoid escalations.

A war with Hezbollah would make this much harder.

These officials are also worried by escalations in recent days where the IDF attacked Baalbek and Hezbollah attacked the western Galilee, the Golan Heights, and a variety of IDF army bases, including harming more soldiers.

Baalbek is around 100 kilometers away from the Israeli border in Lebanon’s northeast, whereas most IDF attacks to date have been focused only on southern Lebanon or on Beirut, which is still much further south than the ancient city.

Until this week, most Hezbollah attacks were limited to the northeastern Galilee, especially empty areas.

In that sense, there is reason for the US to worry – and a strategy of convincing Hezbollah that time really is running out and that Washington cannot hold back “the crazy Israelis” might work.

It probably worked in the 2010s when Iran believed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would launch a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities if it did not reach a nuclear deal with the US.

Sanctions convinced the Islamic Republic as well, but part of the game was Obama administration leaks about no longer being able to hold back Netanyahu.

Despite that narrative, it seems years later that many officials do not think Netanyahu would have actually pulled the trigger.

Biden administration misses out

In any case, this Biden administration's thinking likely misses two key trends.

One is that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the IDF have wanted to launch a general war against Hezbollah since October 11 and have probably repeated this hundreds of times throughout this conflict.

So the idea of Israel attacking is not new.

But possibly more importantly, as The Jerusalem Post has reported, by mid-January, the IDF had already succeeded in clearing around 75% of the Radwan special forces and 85-95% of the lookout towers.

The Post understands that those numbers have only gotten better for Israel since then, such that the vast majority of the initial 6,000 Hezbollah Radwan force fighters have already been pushed back to the Litani by constant small rounds of Israeli attacks.

Put differently, the IDF has already mostly achieved its goal of rolling back Radwan, and the only question is about preventing Hezbollah from sending them back against Israel in the future.

In this light, the Post reported in late January that an increasingly likely scenario is that there is no deal – and also no war.

In fact, because so much of Radwan has already been removed, war is less likely now than it was months ago when the process of removing the special force had not started or was just starting.

Going forward, Hezbollah can simply unofficially choose to quietly not send back most of its Radwan forces while loudly noting that some of its forces remained, and the IDF overlooks the symbolic number of hundreds of them that may remain closer to the Israeli border.

Along with the IDF maintaining two full divisions to defend the border, dwarfing the number of nearby Radwan, this formula could let the military essentially achieve its security goals and let Hezbollah save face.

Of course, a miscalculation could lead to war tomorrow. And at some point in the next several years, many do see war as almost inevitable.

But all of this means that the dark predictions from the CNN article in the immediate term are probably off.

General elections would mean the end of the Hamas-Israel War, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in a Thursday evening speech, necessitating a compromise on the haredi draft law issue.

Netanyahu said that he believed he could pass a draft law arrangement that would not tear the nation apart and would be supported by a majority in the Knesset. Such an arrangement could not be done with democratic compromise -- complete agreement, he said, only exists in non-democratic countries.

"Those that demand complete agreement will not achieve any agreement," said Netanyahu.

There were actors, Netanyahu cautioned, that might seek elections or might cause one by making extreme demands for draft arrangements, but going to the ballot box would lead to an end of the October 7 war.

"What is the utility of general elections now?" asked Netanyahu. "General election means the end of the war."

HAREDI MEN join up with the IDF at the Tel Hashomer recruiting offices, Oct. 23. (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)

Netanyahu: Elections would cripple government operations

General elections would cripple government operations, said Netanyahu. The government would be paralyzed when making decisions on Rafah, Hezbollah, or hostages.

Netanyahu said that general elections were the dream of Iran, Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Opening the polling stations could also cause emotional and political divisions in the ranks, distracting the soldiers who would otherwise be operating in cooperation in armored personnel carriers (APC) in Gaza.

"This would be deadly gunfire inside our national APC," said Netanyahu. "It's forbidden that it happens to us during war and when we're so close to victory."

Strength through unity was a major theme of Netanyahu's speech, explaining that it was why the draft law compromise was so necessary.

Netanyahu said that it was impossible to ignore the public feeling that the responsibilities of security were not evenly distributed in society, and it was something that the haredi community understood as well.

"It's correct to change the situation; therefore, we will set objectives for the enlistment of haredim to IDF and civil service," said Netanyahu, continuing to explain that they would develop the tools for this path.

Netanyahu said that the draft was needed, though he was "deeply thankful for the Torah study of our haredi brothers" and "also thankful for the enlistment to civil emergency and rescue organizations that are doing holy work."

IDF spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari announced that the IDF had killed over 450 Hamas terrorists in Gaza in the past few days and over 13,000 in total during a press conference on Thursday.

He also announced that security forces have neutralized over 3,400 terrorists in the West Bank, with 1,500 of them belonging to Hamas.

Regarding the aggression in the north, he announced that the IDF had killed over 220 Hezbollah terrorists, including Three Brigade commanders

The Gaza war is a “carnage” and an arms embargo should be applied against Israel and others involved in the fighting, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said on Thursday.

“Thousands of tonnes of munitions have been dropped by Israel on Gaza, including repeated use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects,” Turk told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, whose 55th session opened this week.

He described the impact of the IDF bombings on Gaza, which at the start of the war was home to 2.3 million people.

“These weapons send out a massive blast wave of high pressure that may rupture internal organs, as well as fragmentation projectiles, and heat so intense that it causes deep burns – and they have been used in densely populated residential neighborhoods,” he described.

Calling an end to the Gaza war

“The war in Gaza must end. Clear violations of international human rights and humanitarian laws, including war crimes and possibly other crimes under international law, have been committed by all parties. It is time – well past time – for peace, investigation and accountability,” he said.

Palestinians at the site of an Israeli air strike in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on December 17, 2023. (credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)

International humanitarian law, he warned, is incumbent on all parties, not just those directly involved in the conflict, but also their allies who were sending arms.

“This responsibility comes alive when there is a real risk that arms transferred to a party to a conflict may be used in violation of this law. 

“Any such enabling of violations of international humanitarian law must cease at once. This is the core of due diligence,” he said.

The number of fatalities in Gaza has exceeded 30,000, with dozens missing, of whom many are presumed to be buried under the rubble. 

Israel has said that over 11,000 of those killed are combatants and has stressed that it has sought at all moments to minimize civilian casualties as it conducts a military operation to destroy Hamas in the aftermath of the October 7 invasions of its country led by that terror group.

Over 1,200 people were killed in that attack, and another 253 were seized as hostages.
Turk acknowledge that “the attacks on Israeli civilians on 7 and 8 October were shocking. Profoundly traumatizing. And totally unjustifiable. 

“The killing of civilians, reports of torture and sexual violence inflicted by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups, and the holding of hostages since that time are appalling and entirely wrong,” Turk said.

But he cautioned, “So is the brutality of the Israeli response; the unprecedented level of killing and maiming of civilians in Gaza, including UN staff and journalists.”

This has been accompanied by a “catastrophic humanitarian crisis” caused by the destruction of the enclave infrastructure and service systems, including hospitals, health services, and aid distribution.

His office, he said, has documented many incidents that “may amount to war crimes by Israeli forces, as well as indications that Israeli forces have engaged in indiscriminate or disproportionate targeting that violates international humanitarian law.”

Warning against an IDF operation in Rafah

 He warned against an IDF military operation in Gaza’s Rafah, which he warned would lead to a “massive loss of life” and “new displacements.”

He said he failed to see how such an operation could be in keeping with the provisional measures issued by the International Court of Justice, which is adjudicating a claim by South Africa that Israel’s actions in Gaza are tantamount to genocide.

There must be an “immediate ceasefire,” an “end to this war,” and a release of hostages, Turk said. He also called on Israel to release the thousands of Palestinians it has “arbitrarily” detained.

He spoke as part of a debate on accountably in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Palestinian envoy Ibrahim Khraishi accused Israel of “genocide,” “apartheid,” “occupation,” and “racism” in its treatment of the Palestinians.

He called on UN member states to “stop exporting weapons” and to “cut economic and diplomatic ties” with Israel, adding that “we really need accountability.”

Khraishi said he “firmly condemned the October 7” attack against Israel but then later said that Palestinians did not target civilians on October 7 or afterward.

Israel’s Ambassador Meirav Eilon Shahar described for the UNHRC the October 7 attack and the existential threat that Hamas posed to Israel.

“Israel has been told time and time again that the terrorists who have diverted aid, built terror tunnels, brutally murdered innocent civilians, raped, beheaded, burnt families alive - cannot be touched because they hide among the civilian population. 

“Yet we have no choice. We must go after Hamas, or they will continue to come after us,” she said.

Opponents of the war are misguided, she said, if they believe that all that needs to happen for peace to occur is for Israel to lay down its arms.
The UNHRC, she said, has become a forum where the rights of Israelis and Jews “means nothing.”

Eilon Shahar said, “If Israel withdraws from Gaza tomorrow, do you think Hamas would lay down its arms? 

“Do you think Hamas will commit to not rebuilding its tunnels and restoring its terrorist arsenal and instead commit to justice and peace? 

“You think if Israel stops this war today, Hamas will return all our hostages tomorrow? Mr. High Commissioner, the answer is simply no,” she said.

She pointed to two women, Aviva Siegel and Raz Ben Ami, who had been kidnapped on October 7 and then released in November as part of an initial deal between Israel and Hamas.

Their husbands, Keith and Ohad, are still being held in Gaza, she said. 

The UNHRC should have been a symbol of hope for these two women who for over 50 days “endured unspeakable horrors in Hamas captivity.” 

Instead, she said, “they have become a mere footnote in the discourse of this Council.”

US President Joe Biden discussed the "tragic and alarming incident" in northern Gaza on Thursday with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, as well as ways to secure the release of Hamas hostages and a six-week ceasefire, the White House said.

Gaza health authorities said more than 100 Palestinians had been shot dead by Israeli forces as they waited for a food aid delivery, but Israel challenged the death toll and said many of the victims had been run over by aid trucks.

The IDF arrested several settler activists who violently infiltrated a military checkpoint in the Erez crossing and entered Gazan territory, Israeli media reported on Thursday.

The suspects managed to enter 500 meters into the Gaza Strip before being returned to Israeli soil, according to Israeli media.

אזרחים ישראלים שהפגינו סמוך למעבר ארז פרצו מחסום צבאי - ונכנסו לעומק של כ-500 מטר בשטח צפון רצועת עזה. לוחמי צה"ל פועלים בשעה זו לפנותם מהמקום@Doron_Kadosh pic.twitter.com/jTPRD57KD3

— גלצ (@GLZRadio) February 29, 2024

Israeli media said nine suspects were arrested in the incident for assaulting police officers, as well as disregarding an IDF order.

Some of them will be brought to a court to extend their arrest on Friday.

This is a developing story.

Despite citing Hamas's casualty numbers at a congressional hearing on Thursday, the Pentagon clarified to the Jerusalem Post that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin does not stand by those numbers per se.

During the hearing, Austin said that more than 25,000 women and children had been killed by Israel since October 7, adding that Israel can and should do more to protect civilians.

More specifically, at the congressional hearing, Austin was asked how many Palestinian women and children had been killed by Israel, and Austin replied: "It is over 25,000."

In contrast, Israel has said that it has killed around 11,000-13,000 Hamas forces and that additional Palestinian civilians have been killed by 10-15% rocket misfires by Hamas. Presuming the 30,000 dead Palestinians number provided by Hamas's Health Ministry is correct, this would mean that the number of killed Palestinian civilians could likely be between 15,000-18,000, a good bit lower than 25,000.

Hamas has said the IDF has only killed 6,000 of its forces. For Austin to say the IDF has killed 25,000 civilians would then have seemed to suggest he was accepting Hamas's numbers over Israel's.

Displaced Palestinian woman Laila Abu Mustafa, who fled her house due to Israeli strikes, shelters at the border with Egypt, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, February 10, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)

Asked to clarify the situation, Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh responded to the Post, "During the hearing today, Secretary Austin was asked how many women and children have died in Gaza. To clarify, the Secretary’s answer was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled health ministry that more than 25,000 total Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. We cannot independently verify these Gaza casualty figures.”

The Pentagon did not clarify which casualty figure they work with

The Post followed up by asking why Austin chose to cite only the Hamas numbers and not both the Hamas and IDF numbers.

The Pentagon had not responded to that question at press time.

Generally speaking, Austin has been one of the largest supporters of Israel within the Biden administration, but tensions between the sides have elevated lately as the Palestinian death toll has continued to spike and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided committing to plans for handing over Gaza to a third party acceptable to the US, the West, and Israel's Arab allies.

"I demand to know the names of the abductees who will be released in the outline - I have not yet received this answer. It is too early to know if we will reach the outline in the coming days," said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference on Thursday.

Israeli universities reported suspected cyberattacks on Thursday causing disruptions in online services and lecture interruptions.

This is a developing story.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to hold a press conference on Tuesday evening.