Israel-Hamas War Day 195: What's going on in Gaza, Iran?

The US has approved a potential Israeli Rafah operation in exchange for the Jewish state not conducting counterstrikes on Iran, according to a Thursday report from the Qatari newspaper The New Arab.

A senior official told The New Arab that "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to obtain American approval for a military operation in Rafah, in exchange for [Israel] refraining from carrying out a wide military operation against Iran in response to its recent attack."

He claimed that "discourse of an Israeli response to Iran contradicts  the desires of the American administration, and is not realistic, given the Israeli claims that the United States played the major role in repelling the Iranian attack and preventing its success."

The source noted that "the IDF carried out airstrikes [overnight on Thursday] on several areas adjacent to the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt," adding that "the relevant officials in Egypt were notified before the execution of some of these strikes, which came in the Philadelphi axis at a space adjacent to the border with Egypt.

The IDF has decided how it will counter-strike Iran and its proxies but has not yet settled on the timing; multiple sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

Because the timing is still variable and because of all the necessary complex preparations, the current decision could change.

However, the very development of a decision shows the severity and determination of Israel’s leadership to strike back, though all indications are that Jerusalem still seeks to tamp down the attack to avoid spiraling into a regional war.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi hinted that the timing of the attack was not very imminent during a visit to the Arrow air defense battery of Battalion 136.

He said, “We are enabling a home front policy to at least give citizens this Passover week to live almost like normal because we completely trust you and your readiness.”

IRAN’S SUPREME Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves during a prayer marking the end of Ramadan, in Tehran, in April. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

It is also possible that Halevi, Home Front command policies, and other officials keeping their regular schedules are part of a clever fake-out to get Iran and its proxies to lower their guard.

But at least the plain reading of the relevant signals suggests that a major attack is not imminent in the coming days and could even be postponed for longer.

Speculated options for an attack range from going big – striking Iranian nuclear facilities – to the middle of the road – striking drone or ballistic missile facilities that were directly involved in Iran’s strike – to more limited options – assassinating specific individuals or punishing IRGC officials abroad along with their accomplices; or, a mix of some of the above with a large cyber attack.

Still, some signals indicated that the Air Force would be involved in an unusually significant target.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday said, “The Iranians failed in their attack, and they will fail to deter Israel. The skies of the Middle East are wide open for the [Israeli] air force. Every enemy that comes after us will be struck wherever they are.”

Israel was attacked by over 500 aerial threats on Sunday 

He also revealed that Israel was attacked by over 500 aerial threats on Sunday morning, encompassing both Iran and its proxies.

Until now, officials estimated 300-350 aerial threats, including around 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and 30 cruise missiles. However, Hezbollah also participated in rocket fire, and Yemen, Syria, and Iraqi militia groups likely participated as well.

Gallant’s statement is the first public indication that quantifies aerial threats. The aerial threats continued from Hezbollah on Tuesday. The IDF announced it assassinated Ismail Yusef Baz, a senior Hezbollah commander for the Lebanon coastal region, equivalent to the rank of an Israeli brigade commander.

According to the military, Baz served for decades with Hezbollah in a variety of posts before becoming a coastal commander. Among his various roles was managing both rocket and anti-tank missile attacks into Israel.

He also masterminded various terror operations against Israel. Baz continues the list of close to a dozen senior Hezbollah officials killed by Israel since October 7; a smaller number of them were at the rank of brigade commander.

Hezbollah on Tuesday launched two attack drones, injuring three people, according to media reports. The military said the drones hit areas near Beit Hillel.

Hezbollah fired more rockets across northern Israel. The IDF responded with air strikes and artillery fire.
The IDF also announced a drill for the northern region to test the interface between its cyber and technology units and its Northern Command operational units.

This highlights how part of Israel’s response to Iran could be in the cyber domain. It is quite possible as well that an attack by the Jewish state will lead to a further counter-strike by Tehran and its senior proxy, Hezbollah.

Northern Command is responsible for handling threats from Hezbollah and was in Iran’s crosshairs on Saturday night.

During the drill, combat and cyber and technology forces deployed throughout the North on every separate front, to simulate readiness for an all-out hybrid digital and kinetic war.

Division 210 drilled specific scenarios for threats from Lebanon and Syria, while artillery Brigade 282 also participated in an emergency scenario. The special alpine unit for high mountains also participated, including training for urban fighting scenarios.

Iran’s attack came after Israel assassinated top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammed Reza Zahedi on April 1, who directed terror acts against Israel from Lebanon and Syria for years.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, Palestinian and Western news reported that the IDF had struck a building in the Tal as-Sultan neighborhood, west of Rafah, killing three Palestinians.

The military said Division 162 eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure in a precise raid in the central Gaza Strip. Tanks killed numerous terrorists that were identified as advancing on soldiers.

Tovah Lazaroff and Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

The IDF carried out several attacks on terrorists in the Rafah area. It was also reported that there were several dead and wounded, according to Israeli media citing Palestinian media.

The International Criminal Court may be considering issuing international arrest warrants in the relatively near future against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials for alleged war crimes, N12 reported Thursday night.

Around 125 countries are members of the ICC, including essentially all of Europe, and are bound by treaty law to honor the ICC’s arrest warrants, though there have been examples of countries protesting such warrants and refusing to honor them.

The report was extremely puzzling given that the ICC has not decided all of the relevant jurisdictional questions it is supposed to decide before reaching an arrest warrants stage.

For example, the ICC is first supposed to address the issue of complementarity, which is the legal question of whether Israel properly probes itself sufficiently such that the ICC would not have the right to address any war crimes complaints based on complementary or additional jurisdiction.

There has been significant debate about this issue given that the IDF has a robust preliminary probes and criminal probes mechanism for investigating war crimes.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a vote on the state budget at the assembly hall of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, March 13, 2024. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)

It carried out 32 criminal probes and around 500 preliminary probes regarding the 2014 Gaza conflict and is expected to carry out thousands of probes regarding the much longer and larger current war.

On April 14, Iran used 170 advanced drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles to attack Israel.

The speed and explosive power of these threats were all significantly superior to the measly two drones and two antitank missiles with which Hezbollah attacked Israel on Wednesday.

And yet Iran’s 350 advanced attack weapons wounded only one Israeli and Hezbollah’s pinprick attack wounded 18, including 14 soldiers.

How was this possible?

A significant piece of the answer is real estate: Iran’s aerial threats had to travel around 1500 kilometers, whereas Hezbollah’s traveled around three kilometers.

This meant Israel had far more time to track and destroy Iran’s threats.

Also, because the threats were fired from so far away and there was more time, Israel’s Western allies, plus Jordan, were able to assist in shooting down many threats, with the US alone shooting down around 80.

Iran was also aiming for central strategic air force base locations in Israel’s North and South, which are much better defended than nearly any other parts of Israel.

The small Bedouin city in the North has some air defenses, but nothing comparable. It is mostly focused on Iron Dome defenses against typical low-cost Hezbollah rockets.

The Iron Dome anti-missile system fires interceptors as rockets fired from Lebanon, as seen over Kiryat Shmona, March 5, 2024. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)

In contrast, the IDF has known for several months that Iron Dome and other systems are not made to track or shoot down anti-tank missiles fired from very short ranges which fly in a line-drive trajectory, nor are they necessarily adept at shooting down certain kinds of drones launched from short range/

The White House is still viewing the hostage negotiations as an "active effort," National Security Spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday afternoon aboard Air Force One. 

Kirby was asked if Israelis had been given proof of life for all of the hostages. 

"I wish we had more information," Kirby said. "We don't. That's been the case since October 7. We just don't have the ability to know the individual condition of anyone hostage."

We know who's been taken, and we want them all back, Kirby said. 

The hostages must be returned to their families

Iran said at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that Israel "must be compelled to stop any further military adventurism against our interests."

"In case of any use of force by the Israeli regime and violating our sovereignty, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate a bit to assert its inherent rights to give a decisive and proper response to it to make the regime regret its actions," said Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant visited the Tel Nof airbase on Thursday and spoke with pilots there, Israeli media reported. The pilots were from the squadrons that participated in the defense operation against Iran by intercepting missiles and drones fired from the Islamic Republic on Saturday night.

Gallant praised the pilots for their action and thanked the base commander, Brigadier-General Ariel Dayan, and the Lieutenant-Colonel for leading the mission.

"Our ability to sit and make the right decisions, sometimes difficult, in the Air Force, especially when it comes to air force operations and things happening quickly, is rooted in the knowledge that we have the best people in the sky. This applies to every branch; it can be within the cockpit, flight to flight, and, in our perspective, day to day. It's a learning process because change happens at a very high rate here," he noted.

Gallant commends the air force

He continued, "We have the best people, who excel under pressure and perform admirably. And our missions are not going to shrink; they are only going to grow. The complex reality of being targeted from seven different fronts will challenge and accompany us. The extended ranges of 1500 km alter our perspective and affect our speed, responsiveness, and operations."

The UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain, which all have relations with Israel, have pushed for peace and a reduction of tensions in the region this week in a series of conversations.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi hosted Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Cairo and held talks on Wednesday. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud spoke with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, one of several important conversations the president had this week as part of a UAE push for peace in the region.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE “discussed the repercussions of the military escalation in the region, the threat it may pose to the security and stability of the area, and the need to act to prevent the situation from worsening.” This appears to be a reference to the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel.

In Cairo, Bahrain and Egypt discussed the desire for calm in Gaza and ending “ongoing regional tension.” The two sides “agreed on the urgent need to exert and encourage immediate and intensive efforts toward de-escalation, both in the Palestinian territories and at the regional level,” the Egyptian president told a joint press conference.

Calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza

Sisi urged an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. He also said there should be a flow of humanitarian aid to the Strip, and discussed the need for a two-state solution.

“The Bahraini king said that he agreed with the Egyptian president on the necessity of implementing an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and maintaining humanitarian aid delivery to the enclave, the need for a political path towards a just and lasting peace in the region, as well as the acceptance of Palestine as a full member of the UN,” Xinhua news agency in China noted.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits the memorial and performance grounds after his swearing-in ceremony for his third term in the New Administrative Capital (NAC) in the east of Cairo, Egypt April 2, 2024. (credit: THE EGYPTIAN PRESIDENCY/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

They also discussed the upcoming Arab Summit in Bahrain that will take place in May. “I agreed with the King of Bahrain on the need to stop the escalation in the Palestinian territories and at the regional level,” Al-Ain media reported Sisi as saying. “I discussed with the Egyptian president the need for a political path towards a just and lasting peace in the region based on the two-state solution and acceptance of Palestine’s membership in the United Nations,” the king of Bahrain said.

The two new brigades called up for operations in Gaza on Monday were not merely to relieve existing forces in the area, but rather were to augment those forces in preparation for new attacks and progress.

This could be a signal of further additional movements toward attacking Hamas’s remaining battalions in Rafah or small portions of central Gaza.

When the IDF withdrew from Khan Yunis in southern Gaza and announced a freeze in major operations on April 7, there was an expectation that the thrust of the war with Hamas was over, and operations now would be confined to smaller clean-up operations of small remaining pieces of terror cells.

However, then on Monday, the military announced the surprise return of two reservist brigades to Gaza.

The IDF did not specify the nature of the operations planned for the two new brigades, but the military left a vacuum in Khan Yunis after its withdrawal, and it was also possible that the new forces were sent merely to relieve the old ones who had not been given a sufficient break in months.

IDF locating tunnels in Gaza. (credit: IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT)

A planned attack in Rafah

Also, the IDF has been expected to start moving toward an eventual operation against four remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah in deep southern Gaza as the Mossad had said that Hamas rejected a ceasefire hostage deal, and the IDF pressed on in the enclave.