There is a set date for the IDF’s invasion of Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday night.
The only problem is that this very critical information wasn’t told to the military, the Defense Ministry, or any members of the war cabinet.
It is hard to imagine how this set date will advance without notifying these key powers responsible for IDF actions.
Also, it was bizarre for Netanyahu to be talking about an exact date, when around 24 hours earlier, the IDF had pulled out of southern Gaza and nearly halted most of its operations throughout the enclave, save for small targeted operations.
What is more likely is that Netanyahu has possibly taken risks with national security issues – out of concern for political issues.
After the IDF withdrew from southern Gaza on Sunday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to topple Netanyahu’s government if he did not authorize a Rafah invasion.
The impression from Ben-Gvir was that he was watching the clock, and that he wouldn’t give Netanyahu months to comply.
Given that the IDF, Defense Ministry, and war cabinet are not familiar with a specific date, it is reasonable to estimate that this is what stands behind Netanyahu’s statement.
Netanyahu is seeking to hold off Ben-Gvir from leaving
He wanted to hold off Ben-Gvir from leaving and to provide a tough face at a moment when he and Israel are carrying out some strategic retreats to address criticism from the US and European allies regarding the management of the war and humanitarian aid.
True, one could argue that Netanyahu’s public mention of a set date could be a negotiating tactic to try to keep the pressure on Hamas for a deal.
The problem with this is that it is such a thin and superficial move, in light of what Israel is doing, that it in fact may expose Netanyahu and Israel as more desperate than anything else.
Since Thursday, Israel has:
- committed to opening up the Erez crossing, which it said it would never open;
- supercharged processing aid through Ashdod and all other crossings despite having said it would not use Ashdod for this, and that the maximum number of trucks allotted was already going through (it went from 100-200 trucks to more than 400);
- fired two senior officers and censured three others for the World Central Kitchen incident;
- withdrawn all forces from southern Gaza and announced a full pause in active invasion operations in Gaza; and
- made significant concessions to Hamas in hostage negotiations, including allegedly offering it a return of around 90,000 Palestinians to northern Gaza during a 45-day ceasefire.
To act as if Hamas might not notice all of these things and will be intimidated by a bizarre threat of a set date, without actually naming it, undermines how seriously Hamas will take top Israeli officials’ public statements.
This is especially apparent when compared with previous US presidents who have given parties such as the Taliban 48-hour ultimatums. In addition, the public debate between Israel and the US about evacuating Palestinians from Rafah has set it at up to four months. This means that no real full attack will happen for at least a month from whenever Israel starts evacuating civilians.
What will intimidate Hamas at this point is a concrete evacuation process. At this point, words are no longer sufficient, certainly not words that appear to be baldly political.
If Netanyahu and the IDF want to intimidate Hamas into a better hostage deal, and that deal does not come from US pressure, it will require more action – such as the Defense Ministry buying tents for evacuees from Rafah – and fewer words.