The State of Israel must make a critical decision - whether to move forward with a prisoner swap deal with Hamas or enter a military operation in Rafah. The military commentator of Yediot Aharonot, Avi Issacharoff, discussed the topic this morning with Udi Segal and Tal Shalev on 103FM radio.
Issacharoff stated, "I can't be too optimistic. There are all sorts of considerations for why Sinwar might say yes. I think, ultimately, the fact that Hamas's leadership is constantly wavering in demands for a complete cessation of hostilities is a constant obstacle. Sinwar is no longer acting entirely based on known rational considerations but rather as a historical leader who believes that he will save not only the Palestinians but the entire Muslim world. Therefore, despite the great temptation here, I don't see him rushing to end this conflict. He understands the implications for Netanyahu's government."
Issacharoff further clarified that "on the other hand, Sinwar still has his considerations. He's looking not only at the Israeli scene but also at the Arab, Palestinian, Muslim scene. He said himself that he wants to see the Israelis say they surrender. Therefore, he may not rush to jump into this deal. There is a process here that we expect to end within a few days or weeks; it's natural, and if I were one of the families of the hostages, I would want it within a few hours. But we must remember that the Shalit deal was closed after five years, and here we talk about seven months."
Egypt's influence on the current Israel-Hamas conflict
"We need some time because the Egyptian mediator has taken command of the event. The Qatari mediator stepped back, and the Egyptian one entered the picture and brought a deal, and now both sides are discussing it. There is no doubt that the entrance of the Egyptian mediator has changed something here. For months, we heard propaganda from all directions that only the Qataris can mediate, and now we see that the Egyptians also can," Issacharoff emphasized.
In conclusion, Issacharoff said that "the Qataris are invested in Hamas too much. The Egyptians, of course, can escalate the tone, and they can tell Israel to enter Rafah. This is currently the big ordeal allegedly threatening Hamas, and it's not even that big. They are waving Rafah around as if it's the tool that will end the war and bring absolute victory - let's be honest, it won't end the war. If we don't come in with a plan for the day after Hamas is completely eliminated, nothing will change, even after Rafah."