Rafah stands as the sole Hamas stronghold in the Gaza Strip, as it is the only one among the four cities in Gaza that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) hasn't entered. While the IDF took over the Rafah crossing on Thursday in what Washington described as a limited operation, the possibility of a full-scale operation is still on the table despite international discord. The Israeli authorities argue that this is crucial for the dismantling of Hamas' military and governmental infrastructure.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday evening in a video statement released by the Prime Minister's Office that "the entry into Rafah serves two of the main objectives of the war: Returning our hostages and eliminating Hamas." Netanyahu added that Hamas's ceasefire proposal is "very far from meeting Israel's necessary requirements."
In the context of hostage deal discussions in Cairo, Hamas announced on Monday its acceptance of a revised cease-fire agreement proposed by the organization. However, Israel claims that changes to the deal's terms don't align with Israeli needs. Still, Israel has sent a negotiation team to Cairo in a bid to reach a deal that does meet the Israeli conditions.
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF troops stationed in Rafah on Tuesday and said that the operation "will continue until we eliminate Hamas in the Rafah area and throughout the [Gaza] Strip, or until the first captive returns."
According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, former director-general of the Israeli Strategic Affairs Ministry, and head of the Research Division of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, the Rafah operation is particularly important for achieving the war's goals since it is the last bastion of Hamas.
"If we want to defeat Hamas, we have to defeat Hamas in Rafah, just like we did in the rest of the Gaza Strip," he told The Media Line, adding that it is not sufficient but a necessary and a very significant step to defeat Hamas.
Strategic importance of the Rafah operation
Kuperwasser argues that, strategically, Rafah is the most crucial part of the Gaza Strip for the IDF to control as it serves as Hamas's gateway to the world. "As long as they control it, they can bring in all kinds of weapons or any kind of other stuff that they need," he said.
Professor Efraim Inbar, who serves as president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, added that the IDF operation that took over the Rafah crossing seriously undermines Hamas's control over Gaza as the crossing is constantly used to enhance the organization’s military capabilities.
Inbar told The Media Line that while this significantly limits Hamas's smuggling capabilities, there are tunnels that remain along the Philadelphia corridor, which lies along Gaza's border with Egypt; these tunnels must be destroyed to completely prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and goods.
In addition to Rafah being Hamas's last stronghold and gateway to the world, Kuperwasser believes that the operation in Rafah is crucial for Israel's deterrence capabilities.
"They thought they were going to win and they were going to be able to stop Israel before it reached the entire Gaza Strip. This is a message not only for Hamas, but it's a message to the entire region," Kuperwasser continued, noting that destroying Hamas's military infrastructure completely was an Israeli promise made immediately after the Oct. 7 terror attacks.
He noted that the Rafah operation will take time and require the IDF to move gradually and cautiously to minimize civilian suffering and the number of casualties.
According to Inbar, such an operation could take months to conclude. "We should compare it to what happened in 2002 in the West Bank. It took Israel a few years to put down the terror infrastructure," he continued.
Challenges Israel will likely encounter
A deepening of the Rafah operation will bring several challenges for Israel, both militarily and strategically.
Inbar believes that the main challenge will likely be international criticism and pressure. "We have seen the Americans signaling their displeasure and saying to me that they will reconsider the supply of weapons," he said.
Kuperwasser agrees and warns that Israel needs to make sure that despite the lack of American support for the operation, the Jewish state must perform it in a way that considers Washington's concerns.
In addition, Kuperwasser believes that Israel must make sure to carry out the operation in a way that will not cause direct tension between Israel and Egypt. "We have to make sure that nobody goes into Egypt. The Egyptians are on the border to make sure it doesn't happen, but we will also have to take these into account during the operation."
Militarily speaking, he says that Hamas's tunnel infrastructure along the Philadelphia corridor is certainly a challenge.
"Militarly speaking, Hamas had plenty of time to improve their defensive posture in Rafah," added Kuperwasser. "They brought more people, they brought more equipment. We should expect an operation that is not going to be easy."
He warned that while Israel is in Rafah, all the global actors who oppose the IDF’s operation to take over Rafah will put pressure on the Americans to pressure Israel. "We should probably expect more terror attacks from the Houthis, Hizbullah, more challenges coming from the Iraqi militias that are subordinate to Iran, and more challenges from Iran directly," Kuperwasser said, adding that "we will probably also see some rise in the student protests that support Hamas around the globe."
In terms of the hostages and the possibility of a release deal, Kuperwasser argues that the Rafah operation is the only way to improve Israel's standing point in the negotiations. However, he asserts that Washington's opposition to the Rafah operation weakens Israel's stance in those negotiations.
"It is essential for putting the necessary pressure on Hamas to reconsider their position regarding the hostages and making them realize that they may need to show some flexibility," he continued.