Over the past decade Israel’s air defense, particularly Iron Dome, provided Israel the time and protection to avoid a major war in Gaza. That all changed on October 7, 2023 when Hamas invaded Israel, massacred and kidnapped more than 1,200 people using a human wave invasion that easily penetrated Israel’s hi-tech defenses.
A decade of relying on technology and reducing ground forces led to an extreme neglect of basic security doctrines.Since October 7, Israel has continued to rely on air defenses to protect itself against rocket fire from Gaza, from Hezbollah and from other Iranian-backed proxies in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. In each case the decision to rely on a strategy rooted in air defense, has reduced Israel’s deterrence.
For instance, in the North Israel preferred to evacuate civilians rather than fight Hezbollah.
Israel’s historic leadership going back to David Ben-Gurion understood that the best way to defend against Israel’s enemies was to go on the offensive and defeat them quickly.
Ben-Gurion understood that letting Israel’s enemies encircle it with advanced weapons systems would imperil the Jewish state.
This is why Israel always sought to root its doctrine in acquiring new advanced game-changing weapons and denying its enemies similar weapons. When necessary Israel was prepared to make sacrifices and send soldiers on daring missions, to do everything possible to protect the state.
This all changed in the last 15 years under the Netanyahu governments. The country shifted from being ready for daring, rapid wars, to becoming a society surrounded by walls and fences.
It allowed enemies like Hezbollah and Hamas to become exponentially more powerful and Israeli security experts told the public this was fine because Israel was also advancing in its military abilities. Israelis were told that precision munitions could neutralize threats.
Iran has advanced closer to Israel’s borders since 2015, moving forces into Syria and expanding militias in Iraq and Yemen.
As the militias acquired new missiles and drones, Israel relied on unchanged air defenses and doctrine.Even as Israel told itself it had a new “momentum” doctrine in the army, it didn’t really seem to believe it. This was because it trained for multi-front wars, but when it came down to it, it didn’t actually want to engage in wars that required the kind of rapid maneuvering and short-term sacrifice required.
Since October 7, Israel has continued to rely on a doctrine rooted in air defense as a strategy. It has evacuated the North and South and believes air defenses continue to buy it time.
The concept of Iron Dome buying Israel time to decide worked when Israel’s enemies couldn’t penetrate the air defenses and when the Israeli public wasn’t affected much by the war. However, even in those previous conflicts, which were short, living under endless rocket fire and evacuating the borders was not a doctrine for success.
Israel’s enemies today are not deterred. They believe they have caught Israel in a trap in which Israel continues to rely on precision strikes and proportional attacks.
ISRAEL’S FIRST LEADERS understood this would be a recipe for disaster. Israel can’t meet its enemies man-for-man. Israel is a small state and it can’t afford to end up like Lebanon or Iraq. It is a modern state that relies on trade and wants to be part of the first world. Endless wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and a half dozen other Iranian proxies are not a recipe for Israel’s historic success.
It was once believed that Iron Dome would buy Israel the time to make rational decisions, rather than plunge her into hasty wars. Today it is clear that relying on this concept as a strategy has led to endless caution and a fear of fighting large wars to deter enemies.
Instead, the preference is to continue letting groups like Hezbollah dictate the tempo of the war. Hezbollah says that it will stop its attacks when Israel ends the war in Gaza.
In essence this means every time Israel clashes with Hamas, Hezbollah has carved out a “right” to rain down rockets, drones and missiles on northern Israel.
The most destructive aspects of the October 7 war are now being felt on multiple fronts. Hezbollah’s ability to carve out a security zone inside Israel and fight a war between the wars inside Israel is a historic disaster for Israel.
What is the "new norm" in the Middle East?
This week, Hezbollah killed two Israelis in the Golan. Its drones continue to wreak havoc.
A year ago when an IED was planted by a man near Metulla who had penetrated Israel from Lebanon, it was seen as a big deal. Today 6,000 Hezbollah rockets and drones are seen as the new norm.
The killing of Israelis in the North is becoming a new norm, all because strategists put all their faith in air defense alone.
This recalls previous historic marches of folly, such as the Maginot Line between France and Germany.
Countries that rely solely on walled defenses are doomed to end up with enemies who learn how to pierce the defenses. History teaches us this. Israel’s historic leaders understood this.
Israel will need to rethink its reliance on air defense which went from buying time, to eroding Israel’s deterrence, preventing her from making tough decisions necessary to secure the country.