The CIA estimates that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is under pressure from those under his command to agree to a ceasefire deal and end the war with Israel, according to CIA Director Bill Burns, who reported this in a closed committee on Saturday.
Sinwar "is not worried about his death," but he faced pressure concerning the blame that will be directed at him due to the extent of suffering in Gaza. American intelligence officials added that they believed Sinwar was hiding in underground tunnels in Khan Yunis and that he was the primary decision-maker for Hamas surrounding the decision on a ceasefire and hostage deal.
Hamas's tactic of hiding in tunnels causes difficulties in transmitting messages to and from him on behalf of Israel, thereby slowing down the pace of talks between the two sides and hindering the progress of the deal.
Following the report, Micha Kobi, a former senior Shin Bet official and Yahya Sinwar's interrogator when the former was in Israeli prison said in a conversation with Maariv that "no one interferes with Sinwar's decisions regarding the hostages. Despite his affiliation with Hamas, he operates independently, does not coordinate with any entity, and makes independent decisions."He does not listen to Hamas's political leadership abroad, even though Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal are supposed to be the leaders and top commanders of the organization - in practice, Sinwar decides on the actions simply because he is a strong character. He does what suits him and serves his interests," Kobi said.
Communication difficulties between Hamas leaders create hostage deal challengesBecause Sinwar is staying in underground tunnels in Khan Yunis, cut off from communication means, access to him is almost blocked.
"To agree or refuse the deal, Sinwar's approval is necessary - he is the actual decision-maker. Messengers are sent to the underground tunnels in Khan Yunis to reach him," Kobi added.
"Communication difficulties between Hamas leaders also create challenges in the progress of the hostage deal. Not all commanders have contact with Sinwar, and in general, they cannot communicate freely with each other, knowing that any communication means poses a danger to them and is a method for eavesdropping and surveillance," he explained."Sinwar receives information and hears the messages from Doha - and he is the one who decides how matters will progress. When he wants to reorganize and replenish ammunition, he will request a ceasefire according to his interests."Beyond the communication difficulties among Hamas commanders, their relationships are also strained.
"In recent months, the terrorist organization has experienced upheaval, and internal relations between Hamas commanders have deteriorated," the former Shin Bet official continued. "Many commanders have been eliminated, the organization's strategic assets have been lost, the tunnels have collapsed, and so has the civilian governance.
"All this tension leads to internal conflicts among the organization's senior officials. Sinwar, for his part, wants to continue inflicting as much damage as possible on Israel, is not interested in negotiations with Israel, wants to remain the leader of the Strip, and aims to achieve a ceasefire to reestablish the terrorist organization in the Strip.
|However, he gets pressured when he hears about a senior commander being eliminated, knowing he could be next - and, of course, he fears that. Despite his fears, his stance does not change. He will fight to the last bullet and do everything possible to cause as many Israeli casualties as possible."
Kobi also stated that just as the IDF has eliminated other senior Hamas commanders and reached them, they have also come close to Sinwar."The Israeli security forces were close to Sinwar but did not act because they did not want to harm the hostages who were near him. They are essentially the card of this lone and murderous leader. They are his human shields," he said.