This week, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, said that Iran would retaliate for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The comments were reported in Iranian state media. His reference to Iran’s “response” to Israel is part of a kind of drum roll by Iranian officials in which they seek to reassure the region that Iran will eventually do something.
In early August, the Iranian response was presented as a sure thing. It would happen in “48 hours” or in “several days.” Then, the hours and days stretched by and became weeks. Then, the weeks became a month. Nevertheless, the region had to be on edge. While Iran put out its messaging, its proxies could make other moves. The Houthis continued to attack ships, causing the Greek-flagged Sounion ship to catch fire. The ship has 150,000 tonnes of crude oil aboard. If it leaks or sinks, it could result in a major disaster. If it is not salvaged or saved, this could be one of the worst attacks by the Houthis to date.In addition, Hezbollah tried to carry out a large attack on Israel. Israel pre-empted most of the attack, but nevertheless, the incident illustrates how Iran runs a multi-front war against Israel. Iran is seeking to have the best of both worlds now. It benefits from its constant threats to retaliate. It also benefits by doing nothing. Lastly, it benefits by having its proxies continue their attacks. The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, for instance, said that the timing of Iran’s response will be determined by its military. More likely, the IRGC will determine the timing. It is not clear how much leverage the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has in this matter.
Iran is learning that this kind of “waiting game” regarding its response can be as effective as the response itself. In April, Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 missiles and drones. That attack was largely blunted. The attack created a new equation where Iran now feels confident to confront Israel openly and carry out attacks on Israeli soil. In the past, Iran would hide behind various proxies in order to wage its war on Israel. The reason Iran feels emboldened is that, post-October 7, the Middle East has afforded it a kind of privilege that did not exist before. Now, Iran has carved out this new “right” to retaliate.Iran is carefully watching how Israel reacts and also watching how the West reacts. Iran knows that the US is having elections in two months. It also knows that most European countries prefer to reduce tensions in the region. On the other hand, it can be seen that the US military has deployed assets to the region to warn Iran against a larger attack or at least to help defend Israel in case something happens. The visit to Israel by the US head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the wake of the Hezbollah attack, for instance, illustrates the close cooperation between Israel and the US.
The Iranian Attack in April
The April attack by Iran also revealed how close the US and Israel have come in terms of cooperating on issues such as air defense. In fact, Israel and the US are working with regional partners in this regard. Any Iranian attack could be blunted and embarrass Iran. Iran would learn more about Israel and the US capabilities, but Israel, the US and regional partners would also learn more about Iran’s capabilities. Therefore, Iran may see diminishing returns in an actual response or any repeat of the April attack. It may prefer the waiting game or a more complex and innovative response that it can take credit for.