Hezbollah expands its 'firing schedule' on northern Israel as attacks intensify - analysis

Pro-Iranian media say these communities are now on the “firing schedule” - when they have already been under threat for 10 months.

Israeli security forces at the scene where a missile fired from Lebanon hit an open area near the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, September 4, 2024 (photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
Israeli security forces at the scene where a missile fired from Lebanon hit an open area near the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, September 4, 2024
(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)

Hezbollah targeted Kibbutz Neot Mordechai, the pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media said in an article published on September 4. The report appeared to correlate with a Hezbollah attack on September 4 in which sirens sounded in several northern Israeli communities, including Neot Mordechai.

The community is near Kfar Blum, and it’s unclear why Hezbollah and pro-Iranian media have sought to emphasize that this community is now on the “firing schedule” of Hezbollah when it has already been under threat for 10 months of attacks.

The real story is likely more complex. Hezbollah has been claiming over the last month that it is expanding the number of places it targets. This has included attacks on Shamir and Ayalet HaShachar, two other communities in the Hula valley. Hezbollah has expanded the number of places it has attacked throughout the conflict, slowly moving the goalposts as it carves out an area it claims a right to attack. For instance, it has carried out more attacks in the Golan over the last several months.

Hezbollah has carried out more than 8,600 rocket attacks on Israel, based on numbers released recently. By the end of July, it had carried out around 7,500 rocket attacks. August was the largest month in terms of Hezbollah rocket fire. In general the attacks have increased every month of this year. From October to December 2023, Hezbollah launched around 2,000 rockets at Israel. The group has also targeted Israel with around 200 UAVs, according to a Ynet report in August.

 Members of Hezbollah carry the coffin of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander who was killed by an Israeli strike on Tuesday, during his funeral in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon August 1, 2024.  (credit: REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Members of Hezbollah carry the coffin of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander who was killed by an Israeli strike on Tuesday, during his funeral in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon August 1, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

The new Al-Mayadeen report claims that “the Islamic Resistance [Hezbollah] in Lebanon continues to target the occupation's positions and soldiers' positions, and places the ‘Neot Mordechai’ settlement on its firing list for the first time, in response to the attacks that targeted the town of Qabrikha and other villages in the south, which led to the martyrdom of a female citizen.”

Hezbollah expands attacks

The report said the location is around 6km from the Lebanese border. This illustrates how Hezbollah thinks about its attacks and attempts at precision and sending messages.

The Iranian-backed terrorist group also claimed to have “targeted the Israeli occupation artillery positions in Al-Zaoura with Katyusha rockets.” In addition, it claimed to have targeted Al-Marj, Al-Samaqa, Ruwaisat al-Alam, and other sites. Hezbollah “published scenes of operations that were previously carried out, targeting sites, barracks and espionage equipment belonging to the Israeli occupation army on the southern Lebanese border.”

The group claimed to target Beit Hillel, Dishon, and Zarit, the latter of which it claimed was the “barracks of the headquarters of the battalion affiliated with the Western Brigade), with volleys of ‘Katyusha’ rockets and artillery shells, in support of the Gaza Strip and its resistance, and response to the Israeli occupation's attacks on the southern villages.”

The overall Hezbollah messaging is the same as in previous months. However, the group wants to show its supporters in the region and Iran that it can expand its attacks. However, the current “expansion” includes areas Hezbollah has already targeted. This is a way for Hezbollah to escalate without actually escalating to such an extent that Israel might be prodded into a larger response.

This is the deadly game that Hezbollah has been waging. After a month of firing more than 1,000 rockets at Israel in August, it is unclear if Hezbollah will keep up the rate of fire this month. It launched more than 100 rockets in Israel on September 4.