Israel at war: What happened on day 387?

Mossad chief David Barnea is set to travel to Qatar's capital, Doha, on Sunday to renew hostage deal talks, Maariv reported. 

"It was an honor to fly through the dark desert, knowing every moment in the air was a step toward a new dawn for Israel." These are the words of Lt. Col. Y., commander of Israel's 119 Squadron, breaking his silence on the harrowing details of Operation Days of Repentance (מבצע ימי תשובה), the mission that marked Israel’s largest strike on Iran in decades.

More than 100 IAF combat airplanes, including fighter jets and unmanned drones, traveled some 1,600 kilometers through enemy territory (reportedly Syria and Iraq) early Saturday, attacked more than a dozen sensitive military targets in a number of different waves throughout Iran, and – at least the fighter jets – safely returned home.

By any measure, that is a remarkable achievement.

There are some, including opposition members, who say that this did not go far enough, that this was not a strong enough response to Iran’s firing of some 200 ballistic missiles against Israel earlier this month, and that Israel should have used the legitimacy it had to respond to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, its oil fields, or both.

And in a world where Israel did not have to take into account any other considerations – not Washington’s concerns or those of its allies in the Persian Gulf – then perhaps they are correct.

But we don’t live in such a world.

IAF forces preparing for Israel's retaliation attack against Iran, 25-Oct-2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

The US, which helped Israel deflect Iran’s two previous attacks, made it clear that they would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or its critical economic infrastructure. The Persian Gulf countries also let it be known that they were concerned that an attack on Iran’s oil fields would lead to an Iranian attack on their own oil industry infrastructure.

As a result, Jerusalem decided to “only”

go after some of the Islamic Republic’s military installations. At least for now. And the “at least for now” factor is an important one. According to foreign reports, the IAF took out air defense batteries and radars in Syria, Iraq, and Iran itself to pave a clear path for the attacking aircraft. In other words, Iran is completely exposed. Some of those batteries were reportedly state-of-the-art Russian S-300s.

Russia, engaged in Ukraine, is not going to be able to quickly replenish them. If the IAF attacked once – and cleared a path – it can do so again. The Iranians obviously realize this as well, which will surely affect their decisions on how, and if, to respond. 

If the IAF was able to hit sensitive Iranian military sites Saturday, when Iran had anti-aircraft defenses up and working, then how much more will it be able to do so now with those defenses having been downgraded.

What that all means is that just because Israel did not hit the Iranian nuclear or oil installations now, it doesn’t mean that they won’t in the future. Iran, and everyone else in the region, has now seen Israel’s capabilities – and they are enormous.

Details of the strike

While the details of what Israel hit are still sketchy – a factory producing critical parts for ballistic missiles, ballistic missile launchers, drone factories – the targets seem to have been selected carefully with a number of objectives in mind.

The first was to strike a blow to Iran’s military capabilities and limit its ability to fire ballistic missiles at Israel. While the country has a massive ballistic missile arsenal, it is not unlimited, and if it is unable to produce a critical component because of Saturday’s attack, then it will have to factor in limited capacity in its decision on how to respond.

The second was to send a message to Iran, and everyone else in the region, that when Israel says that it will hit back hard against anyone who attacks, it means it. This means not only chopping off the tentacles of the Iranian octopus – Hamas and Hezbollah, which Israel is in the process of doing – but also going for the head of the octopus as well, sitting in Tehran.

This marks the first time Israel took responsibility for attacks in Iran – taking the fight directly to the enemy - and that is no insignificant line crossed.

And third, it struck this blow and sent this message while taking into consideration Washington’s concerns. With the presidential election just a little over a week away, Jerusalem had to weigh how its response would impact the election and – more importantly – how it would impact the policies of whoever wins.

Although one may assume that an attack on Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities might sit well with former president Donald Trump, it would not with Kamala Harris. Jerusalem was wise not to gamble on who will win, but rather acted in a way that either candidate could live with.

Israel hit Beruit suburbs with airstrikes during the early hours of Sunday morning, Reuters images of the strikes showed. 

Additionally, the Hezbollah-run channel Al-Manar reported on the Israeli strikes shortly afterward, stating that Israel had struck Beruit's suburbs, along with the area of Baalbek, Zrariyeh, and Al-Jamous.

The Reuters images of the strikes surfaced approximately two hours after residents of Lebanon's southern suburbs were called to evacuate their homes by IDF Arabic Spokesperson Avichay Adraee in an X/Twitter post.  

Specifically, Adraee noted that residents in the areas of Burj Al-Barajneh and Hadath should leave their homes and stay at a distance of 500 meters before planned Israel strikes.

"You are located near facilities and interests affiliated with Hezbollah, which the IDF will be targeting in the near future," Adraee wrote.

#عاجل إلى جميع السكان المتواجدين في منطقة الضاحية الجنوبية وتحديدًا في المباني المحددة في الخرائط المرفقة والمباني المجاورة لها في المناطق التالية:
🔸برج البراجنة
🔸حدث

⭕️أنتم تتواجدون بالقرب من منشآت ومصالح تابعة لحزب الله حيث سيعمل ضدها جيش الدفاع على المدى الزمني القريب… pic.twitter.com/rMTLeU7Kd2

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 26, 2024

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, October 27, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/ Mohamed Abd El Ghany TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Continuous strikes on Beirut suburbs

Israel has conducted several strikes in the area recently and in the last week.

In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel struck Beirut's suburbs. 

Following the round of strikes, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news channel Al Mayadeen reported that multiple journalists from a press team were allegedly killed after Israel hit Lebanon's Hasbaya.

The Lebanese outlet later reported that one of its photographers, Ghassan Najjar, and one of its broadcast engineers, Mohammad Reda, were among those killed. 

Former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump discussed Israel's relationship with the US during the war and tensions in the Middle East during a wide-ranging, three-hour interview with American podcaster Joe Rogan on Friday. 

One day after it was posted on YouTube, Trump's appearance on the "Joe Rogan Experience" podcast received over 22 million views on the platform.

Toward the three-hour mark, Trump criticized US President Joe Biden and his opponent in the upcoming elections, Vice President Kamala Harris, for telling Israel "not to do anything" during the Israel-Hamas war.

Furthermore, Trump commended Israel for "not listening" to Biden throughout the war.

Biden "told Israel not to do anything [during the war]," Trump continued.

"I think if they [Israel] listened to Biden, they'd be waiting for a bomb to drop over their head right now," he added.

Joe Rogan podcast on Spotify. The Joe Rogan Experience is a podcast hosted by American comedian Joe Rogan (credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)

"[Biden's] been wrong about so much. I guess you'd have to say that she [Harris] has been wrong too because, you know, she always said they made the decision together."

"Israel didn't follow his advice," Trump repeated. 

World to end in the Middle East

Trump then addressed the situation in the Middle East as a whole, noting what he believed prophets have said about the region and claiming it would be the location "the world would come to an end."

"You know, there are prophets that say the world will come to an end in the Middle East. You know that, right?" Trump said.

According to a New York Times report, Rogan has previously turned down the opportunity to interview Trump and called him a "threat to democracy."

However, Rogan said in the interview that he wanted to get Trump on the podcast following the former president's assassination attempt, which took place at a Pennsylvania rally back in July.

"Once they shot you, I was like, he's got to come in here," Rogan told Trump during the interview.

Kamala Harris

Rogan also said he invited Harris to appear on the podcast for an interview. According to him, Harris has yet to respond to the request to join the podcast.

"I said I would have a conversation with her [Harris] like a human being," Rogan explained in a clip he posted to X/Twitter regarding the invite. Rogan emphasized that the goal of having the guest on his show would be less focused on political policy and more geared toward getting to know the candidates. 

"I don't want to hear about her position. We know her position. Like, who are you?" Rogan asked regarding Harris. 

Seems reasonable. pic.twitter.com/CUkhKbTieH

— Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) October 27, 2024

While doing the interview, Trump said he could not imagine Harris agreeing to appear on the show.

"Can you imagine Kamala doing this show? If she did this kind of interview with you, and I hope she does because it would be a mess, she would be laying on the floor, and you'd be saying, call in the medics," Trump said on the podcast.

The timing of the Trump-Rogan interview came less than two weeks before the US 2024 presidential elections. 

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, is reportedly seriously ill, with his second oldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei, likely to succeed him when he dies, a Saturday New York Times report disclosed. 

The report noted that Khamenei's serious medical condition created a "quiet battle" over his succession. It also stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would have a say in who would become the Ayatollah's successor.

Concern grew over Khamenei's successor after former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash last May.

Khamenei has served as Supreme Leader since 1989, when Ruhollah Khomeini, the first to hold the title, died.

Report comes after Israel's response to Iran's ballistic missile attack

The Times report came shortly after Israel responded to Iran's ballistic missile attack at the beginning of the month by striking numerous military sites early Saturday morning.

IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet in Tehran, last month. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

Iranian officials have said that they do not want escalation with Israel, the Times report added.

While attacking military targets in Iran, reports said that Israel had also attacked targets in Iraq and Syria.

Commercial satellite imagery showed that Israeli airstrikes hit buildings during an attack on Saturday that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles, according to separate assessments by two American researchers.

The judgments were reached by David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security research group, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank.

They told Reuters separately that Israel struck Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, according to Eveleth, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran.

Reuters reported in July that Khojir was undergoing massive expansion.

Eveleth said the Israeli strikes may have "significantly hampered Iran's ability to mass produce missiles."

A screengrab shows an Israel Air Force plane, which the Israeli army says is departing to carry out strikes on Iran, from a handout video released on October 26, 2024. (credit: ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

The Israeli military said three waves of Israeli jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran early on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of more than 200 missiles against Israel.

Iran's military said the Israeli warplanes used "very light warheads" to strike border radar systems in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, and around Tehran.

Ballistic missile fuel storage buildings hit

Eveleth said that an image from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, showed that an Israeli strike destroyed two buildings in Khojir where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.

Planet Labs imagery of Parchin showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse, he said.

Albright said he reviewed low-resolution commercial satellite imagery of Parchin that appeared to show that an Israeli strike damaged three buildings, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

He did not identify the commercial firm from which he obtained the images.

The buildings, he said, are located about 350 yards from a facility once involved in what the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and US intelligence say was a comprehensive nuclear weapons development program that Iran shuttered in 2003. Iran denies having such a program.

"Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers," Eveleth said. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense and will likely have a hard time replacing them."

'highly accurate' strikes 

With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel's missile defenses.

"The strikes appear to be highly accurate," he said.

Iran has the Middle East's largest missile arsenal and supplied missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine and to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, according to US officials.

Tehran and Moscow deny that Russia has received Iranian missiles.

Planet Labs imagery reviewed earlier this year by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey showed major expansions at Khojir and the Modarres military complex near Tehran that the pair assessed were for boosting missile production, Reuters reported.

Three senior Iranian officials confirmed that conclusion.

Following sirens in the Western and Upper Galilee, two drones were identified crossing from Lebanon and were intercepted over open areas, the IDF announced early on Sunday morning.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Tehran on Saturday against responding to Israel's strikes on military sites in Iran and said he stressed in a call to his Israeli counterpart the opportunities to de-escalate tensions in the region.

"Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange," Austin said in a statement.

The IDF decided to postpone soldier recruitment, beginning Sunday, due to fear of an Iranian response that could include a missile attack on Israel, Israeli media reported on Saturday night.

The postponement will reportedly last till the end of the week.