In the span of four days, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked underwent a metamorphosis. On Thursday evening, she and Communications Minister Yoaz Hendel were confidently tweeting, Facebooking and TikToking about their joint run.
By Monday, the partnership was broken. Shaked was in advanced negotiates with the Bayit Yehudi Party led by Yossi Brodny, and an enormous banner hung in Jerusalem with Shaked’s picture and the words, “My heart is with the Right,” complete with a ballot with the letter “Bet” on it – the letter that in the past few years represented Bayit Yehudi.
More importantly, last week, Shaked refused to say whether she would join a fully right-wing coalition led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and she insisted instead that the only option was a unity government.
By Sunday, however, she flat-out said if a unity government is not possible, which probably will be the case, she would indeed join a right-wing government, hence the “Heart is in the Right” slogan.
What is going on?
The Shaked-Hendel deal of July 27 was founded upon the following three premises: First, the party would pass the 3.25% electoral threshold; second, it would be the only party not to announce whether it was pro- or anti-Bibi, and thus become the kingmaker following the election; and third, in its capacity as kingmaker, the party would force the Likud and National Unity parties to form a unity government and leave out the Religious Zionist Party.
But six weeks later, with the September 15 deadline for parties to hand in their lists approaching, all three premises turned out to be wrong.
The party was not even close to passing the electoral threshold in nearly every poll. Consequently, it cannot play kingmaker. And finally, with National Unity saying over and over again that it would not partner with Netanyahu, very few people believed that such unity was possible.
Shaked understood that barring any drastic changes, her ship would sink. In order to keep the boat afloat, she first attempted to bring Bayit Yehudi on board with her and Hendel. But the party was not willing to accept her offer, nor was it willing to accept Hendel’s rejection of a narrow right-wing government. It was either Hendel or them, Bayit Yehudi said.
So instead, Shaked jumped ship and boarded Bayit Yehudi’s, leaving Hendel behind. This also involved a policy leap. For the first time since the election was announced, Shaked said she would join a narrow, Bibi-led government.
The Bayit Yehudi Party (Jewish Home in English) is the official offspring of the religious-Zionist Mafdal Party. The party was where Shaked began her political career in 2012 alongside Alternate Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Bennett served as the party leader from 2012-2018, after which he and Shaked broke away from it to form the New Right (Hayamin Hahadash), which eventually became Yamina.
Under Bennett, Bayit Yehudi peaked at 12 seats in the 2013 election. The party did not run in the previous election, but it supported Yamina.
Shaked’s move, therefore, did not come out of nowhere. While many no longer followed Bayit Yehudi, it used to be the place that Shaked called home as well.
What are the repercussions of Shaked's move?
First, with Hendel now promoting the unpopular unity government line by himself, if he and political ally MK Zvi Hauser do not join another party before Thursday, it is highly unlikely that they will run in the election.
Second, whatever credibility Shaked had before the move, she now has even less. After partnering with Prime Minister Yair Lapid in the current government despite promising not to do so, her failed merger with Hendel now seems to have been a purely opportunistic move.
The impression she has made is that she will choose opportunism over campaign promises. She is now arguing the case that her heart was with the Right all along. But why should voters trust her?
Third, there is now no party that is impartial to yes-Bibi or no-Bibi. The Shaked-Bayit Yehudi Party will now be counted in polls as part of the Netanyahu bloc, and the Likud now faces a dilemma. If Shaked passes, she will give them the ticket to the next government.
However, if she fails to pass the electoral threshold, she could burn what are now certainly pro-Bibi votes. The Likud has yet to respond, but we will know soon whether it decides to try to promote Shaked or erase her.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the move might mean that Shaked’s political partnership with Bennett is officially at its end. As journalist Yair Sherki of Channel 12 pointed out, if Bennett were in Shaked’s place, he might well have joined National Unity along with his former Yamina colleague Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana, and as a citizen, he may not even vote for her in the upcoming election.
If Bennett returns to politics in the coming years, he may have to face Shaked as a political foe. The two stuck together through thick and thin for more than a decade, but it seems in the jungle that is Israeli politics, their roads have finally diverged.