The dramatic split at the last minute late on Thursday night between the Joint List's Hadash-Ta'al and Balad could end up being one of the most important occurrences of the election.
The ripple effects of the move may push one of the blocs over the 61-seat threshold, but it is not clear yet which one it benefits.
Prior to the split, the Joint List was a union of three parties: The socialist-communist Hadash, led by MK Ayman Odeh; Arab-nationalist Balad, led by MK Sami Abou Shahadeh; and Ta’al, led by MK Ahmad Tibi, which, ideologically, is somewhere between the other two.
Balad was the only faction out of the three that insisted on pledging in advance that it would not recommend any candidate for Prime Minister or cooperate with any coalition after the election. Neither Hadash’s MK Ayman Odeh nor Ta’al’s MK Ahmad Tibi ruled out these options.
On the contrary, the two said after submitting their list on Thursday night that they would consider cooperating with Prime Minister Yair Lapid under "the right conditions", and that their task was to "earn the trust of the Arab public and the Jews that support democracy," as well as "to do everything to get the public out to vote and block the extreme-Right."
The first scenario is that the split ends up benefitting Lapid
A poll published earlier this month by KAN showed that 64% of the Arab public supported entering a coalition. With Balad now out of the picture, Odeh and Tibi may move in that direction.
Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas racked up a number of achievements over the past year on behalf of the Arab sector, and may sense the shifting tide among their electorate, which, more than anything, wants to be safe from violent crime and to receive economic opportunities.
Balad will with near certainty not pass the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the national vote. Hadash-Ta'al, however, last ran as a pair in 2019 and won six seats. Even if the party receives four or five, with Lapid currently maxing out at 57 seats, their support could, theoretically, give him the victory.
The second scenario may be that the split will hand opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu the victory
This is because if Balad does not back out of the race, the votes it receives will be flushed down the toilet. Recent estimates had Balad's strength at approximately one seat.
With Netanyahu currently expected to reach close to 60 seats, the loss of Balad's votes means that the number of votes needed to win each seat will be slightly lower, and may end up pushing him over the edge and receiving 61.
What will make the difference is the turnout of Israeli-Arabs on election day. The Arab vote is currently expected to be at an all-time low.
While Arab voters make up 17% of eligible Israeli voters, recent polls showed that no more than 45% of them said they will vote. While some political analysts believe that the split will lower this number due to the incessant inner-fighting, others, such as Yousef Makladeh, the founder of a research institute called StatNet, believe that it will raise the number of voters, including people who initially said they would refrain from voting because they opposed Balad's separatist approach.
The Israeli-Arab voters overwhelmingly vote for either one of the Arab parties or for parties on the Jewish Left, such as Meretz. The more voters that show up on election day, the more the Center-Left bloc is expected to gain.
This is more pertinent than ever, because the waste of Balad’s votes means that if voters do not show up, the chances that Netanyahu will win are higher.
Finally, it remains to be seen how the split will affect the campaigns of parties, especially those of Yesh Atid and National Unity. National Unity ruled out cooperation with the Joint List, in an attempt to attract some moderate-right votes. Yesh Atid also said, albeit not as forcefully, that the Joint List was off limits.
Yesh Atid also said, albeit not as forcefully, that the Joint List was off limits. But the Joint List is now void of its most extreme element, and if it begins to use a more conciliatory tone, Yesh Atid may shift gears towards cooperation.
In this scenario, National Unity will be the most interesting party to watch. If it still completely rejects cooperation with the Joint List then the situation remains as it is, with the odds now tilted in Netanyahu's favor.
But should they choose a more nuanced tone, such as a consideration to cooperate with the Joint List on civil matters only, similar to Ra'am, the trajectory of the election could change – and Lapid's side could then begin to focus all of its resources on getting Israeli-Arabs out to vote on election day.