After around 18 months of deadly terrorist attacks in the West Bank focusing mainly on the Jenin and Nablus areas of the northern West Bank, terrorism abruptly returned to Hebron on Monday.It’s not that there has been zero deadly terrorism in the Hebron area – and definitely not zero attempts at terrorist attacks or low-grade Palestinian violence.As OC Central Command Maj.-Gen. Yehuda Fuchs said Monday, Israel’s security forces have been regularly thwarting terrorist plots in the Hebron area.So, what was really distinctive about the attack was that it directed attention to how unusual it has been that Hebron has been quieter than the northern West Bank. Further, what does it mean that this seemingly well-executed terrorist attack happened there?There were also questions about whether there is a new attempted escalation by Hamas or other terrorist groups in light of the spike with the weekend attack at Huwara, plus this attack, plus two attempted drone territorial violations from the Gaza Strip.
So what does it mean?
Given the number of thwarted attempted terrorist attacks in Hebron in 2022-2023, it probably just means that until now, the IDF has gotten “lucky” that it has stopped most terrorist attacks, and that its luck ran out.The two main long-term games now are debates over a “Jenin 2” and the potential for normalization with the Saudis and the impact that might have on the Palestinian situation.The security forces and moderate elements in the government want to let the Palestinian Authority reassert itself and do not want to rush into another massive operation like the one that took place in Jenin on July 3-4 anytime soon. More right-wing elements of the coalition want a much bigger version of Jenin – and already yesterday.The Saudis want Israel to give some part of Area C to the Palestinians and to make some other gestures that would fall short of a resolution but could create positive energy and reduce terrorism. There have been few signs regarding what Israel is willing to give, however, and whether Washington and Jerusalem will give the Saudis a full civilian nuclear program.When the motivation for terrorism in the West Bank is as high and spread out as it is now, and with no grander diplomatic or military solution being offered on the horizon, there will probably continue to be more surprises – and not fewer – of where terrorist incidents jump out in “new” areas.