The IDF is continuing its operations in Jabalya, a neighborhood and suburb of Gaza City in northern Gaza. The area is home to a large number of Palestinian civilians who remained there throughout the war and also returned over the last year. It is estimated that there are hundreds of thousands of Gazans in northern Gaza, with many thousands living in Jabalya.
The military began operations in Jabalya for the third time in a year when the 162nd Division was pulled from Rafah and sent back into the area on October 6. This movement of troops set the stage for two important incidents. First, it led to the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was eliminated by troops searching Tel al-Sultan 10 days after the Jabalya operation began. Second, it has led to Israel’s demand that civilians evacuate large areas of northern Gaza.
It’s unclear if the Jabalya operation led to the finding of Sinwar. It is possible that he felt he could wander around more freely because he believed the IDF was shifting its focus to northern Gaza and Lebanon. What matters, though, is that Hamas continues to lose ground.
On the other hand, Hamas continues to control large parts of Gaza. Reports on October 21 painted a picture of a Hamas that can still engage in hostage deal talks. Who is representing Hamas in Gaza? Probably Sinwar’s brother. However, Hamas also has many leaders abroad, most of whom live in Qatar and Turkey, both US allies. Turkey is a NATO ally and Qatar is a major non-NATO ally.
“Senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal has reiterated the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance movement in its struggle against the Zionist regime until the liberation of Palestine,” Iran’s IRNA reported on Monday.
This illustrates that Hamas members in Qatar and Turkey are pushing for the war in Gaza to continue. Iran’s foreign minister recently visited Turkey and met with Hamas members while he was there. Turkey backs Hamas and it’s possible that coordination is taking place at high levels between Ankara and Tehran to back Hamas and figure out the next steps in Gaza. Meshaal’s statement is likely connected.
Hamas wants war to continue
“Meshaal, who is also serving as the head of Hamas outside Palestine, while delivering a speech in honor of Martyr Yahya Sinwar, the head of the political bureau of the resistance movement, said that the option of resistance is there until the liberation of Palestine,” IRNA reported in Iran.
“During the Al-Aqsa storm operation, we lost a large number of resistance leaders in Gaza, the West Bank, and abroad, as well as the residents of the camps; this movement has always presented its leaders on the path of martyrdom, pride, liberation of the land, and the freedom from the Israeli occupation, headed by Ahmed Yassin, who was assassinated by the Zionist regime in 2004,” Meshaal said.
This means that Hamas abroad is preparing for a long war and seeks to replace Sinwar. Publicly, Hamas wants to show that the group will not agree to a ceasefire or a deal.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas is losing out in Jabalya.
“Over the past day, IDF troops dismantled terror infrastructure and tunnel shafts and eliminated terrorists in the area of Jabalya. IDF tanks, in cooperation with the IAF, eliminated a number of terrorists that posed a threat to the troops,” the military said on Monday. The IDF continues to grind down the terrorists.
The military’s goal in Gaza is to remove Hamas infrastructure and find the remaining terrorists. It appears Hamas has returned to northern Gaza several times, even after the IDF fought in Jabalya in December 2023 and again in the first half of 2024.
Hamas keeps returning and recruiting. It is also innovating new ways to kill Israeli soldiers. The commander of the 401st Armored Brigade, Col. Ehsan Daxa, was killed on Sunday. This is a serious loss, and it follows other losses in Gaza that show Hamas is still a threat.
The question now in Gaza is whether the death of Sinwar and the fighting in Jabalya will hand Hamas a defeat that will change things strategically. Israel has been fighting a tactical war in Gaza, where numerous victories have taken place, but Hamas is not completely defeated. The absence of a clear day-after strategy also leads to a sense among Hamas leaders abroad that they can hang on and survive.
With the death of Sinwar, there are also questions about the ability to free the hostages. Throughout the majority of the year, the Gaza war unfolded on two fronts: discussions about hostages in Doha or Cairo and tactical battles within Gaza. It’s not clear if the pressure on Hamas or the reduction of its capabilities has led to flexibility on the hostages. Without Sinwar in charge, it should be possible to do more work on freeing the hostages.
The question after Jabalya is cleared of terrorists is whether there is a next step and a willingness to exploit the death of Sinwar for leverage. Hamas leaders abroad appear to be saying that they won’t budge. With most of them living in western allies, it is harder to foresee them being eliminated. This gives them confidence that they can hang on and “win” simply by continuing to survive.