The cosmic battle between presidential candidates Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris comes to a head Tuesday as Americans head to the polls for the final day of voting.
The 2024 election has been billed as a fight for the soul of America, centering less on policy and more on questions of democracy and identity.
Each camp has cast the other as an existential danger to the country, with Harris warning that democracy is in danger and Trump charging that Harris is a left-wing extremist who will undermine American values and destroy the country with her incompetence.
Many Republicans and Democrats fear they will wake up on Wednesday, November 6 to an America they no longer recognize and or feel at home in.
This election, however, also threatens to have deep reverberations around the globe. In Israel’s case, it could be an earthquake that shifts the counters of the Jewish state’s year-long existential war with Iran and its proxies.
The United States has been one of Israel’s staunchest friends and has taken the global lead in supporting Israel in wartime and helping it negotiate peace deals.
This has been particularly true in the aftermath of the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7. US President Joe Biden rushed to Israel’s side, literally, arriving less than two weeks after the start of the war.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in Israel on almost a monthly basis and US officials have sat in war cabinet meetings. CIA Director William Burns has been at the helm of the hostage talks. US National Security and State Department spokespeople have defended Israel on almost a nightly basis.
The US has provided Israel with arms and military advice and, most significantly, created a five-army coalition that takes to the skies to defend the Jewish state against Iranian attacks.
Its actions have reflected both Biden’s deep abiding love of Israel and the Jewish people as well as its understanding of the important role Israel plays in America’s geopolitical global and Middle East strategy.
That the US supports Ukraine, and Iran is strongly allied with Russia, only heightens the significance of Israel’s regional war with the Islamic Republic.
No matter what happens Tuesday, that steadfast US backbone that has helped shape Israel’s war over the last year will shift if not erode, depending on how events play out. The moves come as Israel is struggling to find a way to transform its military victories into sustainable peace deals that would see the return of hostages and secure its borders.
What happens next?
There are four almost immediate scenarios.
Electoral chaos
Americans fear the tumult that could follow should Harris win by a margin narrow enough to allow Trump to also declare himself the winner. It’s possible that even with a wider loss, although that is not expected, he would refuse to accept the results, making good on his threat that a “bloodbath” would follow if he was not reelected to the White House.
US enemies could view this as an ideal time to strike at American targets and its allies, particularly Israel. There is speculation that Iran in particular could seize this opportunity to carry out its anticipated third direct attack against Israel. Hamas’s October 7 attack took place in the chaotic period that followed House speaker Kevin McCarthy’s removal from office on October 3.
The issue goes beyond one of distraction and would speak more of a sudden US inability to act on a long-term strategy with regard to its foreign strategic interests, particularly when it is negotiating on Israel’s behalf for long-term deals.
Any hostage deal that can not be done immediately would almost be a non-starter.
Trump, a former president, and Harris, a vice president, represent vastly different foreign policy agendas, particularly in the Middle East. Biden’s actions in these last three months will be largely determined by who wins on November 5. Without a clear winner, he remains the commander-in-chief, but one with a very limited timeline. The longer the uncertainly lasts, the shorter Biden’s remaining days are, the more his impact will wane.
A Harris win
A Harris win ensures the most stability over the next three months and gives Biden the greatest amount of power to act with Israel and on its behalf in that period. At the moment, the policies of both Biden and Harris are largely aligned with respect to Israel and the Middle East.
Harris has spoken of the importance of Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and its proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. She has spoken out in particular about the importance of a hostage deal.
Harris is also aligned with Biden’s vision of a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and believes that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state.
Biden would be presumed to be speaking for both the existing and the future administration, giving his actions and those of his administration enormous clout as they have the potential to reflect eight more years.
Hamas or Hezbollah would be unlikely to simply wait out Biden’s remaining three months.
Biden could begin efforts for a hostage deal and then hand it over in stages to the incoming Harris administration.
Israel, if anything, would have every incentive to work out a Gaza ceasefire agreement and day-after plan prior to Biden’s departure believing the US president would be more supportive than Harris.
A Trump win
Many in Israel believe that a Trump win would be most beneficial to its long-term goals. But it also gives the Biden administration only a three-month window to operate, creating a new urgency but also new challenges to finish deals that have eluded it for close to a year.
Opponents of their policies would simply try to run out the clock. Hamas might be more inclined to negotiate ceasefire efforts. Israel would be more inclined to ramp up its military campaign fearing Trump would force it to wind down the Hamas and Hezbollah war to make good on his pledge to bring peace to the Middle East.
A Trump win could also push Israel to take more military risks with Iran, including potentially hitting its nuclear sites, fearing that Trump’s reluctance to put boots on the ground might mean he would continue existing US policy of militarily defending Israel.
Israel would also be more likely to wait for Trump for a Gaza ceasefire deal, believing he would be more likely to support its long-term goals in the enclave, particularly given his past anti-Palestinian measures.
This is particularly with respect to the Palestinian Authority, which the Biden administration would like to see return to Gaza, a step Trump would be more likely to oppose.
Biden would be more likely to take risks to ensconce his foreign policy visions in the Middle East.
Biden’s last hurrah and Iran
Biden will likely be legacy shopping, seeking to craft final policies irrespective of a Biden or a Harris win, in a final sprint to bring the hostages home, and set in place a framework for a two-state resolution to the conflict and prevent a nuclear Iran.
His window would be shorter, but he would be more free to act according to his own dictates, freed from electoral concerns, understanding that it is about him and making his mark one final time on the world stage.