Why is Iran claiming the US and Israel are behind Syria escalation? - analysis

Iran wants the US to leave eastern Syria, where the US is fighting ISIS alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish force.

 Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive along a street in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive along a street in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)

Iran was initially shocked by how fast Syrian opposition groups had advanced in Idlib province late last month.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni rebel group, led the advance and swept aside Syrian regime forces to take Aleppo.

Days later, it looked like HTS would also take Hama, a city on the road to Damascus. The rebels are now stalled outside Hama. Iran is gathering support for the Syrian regime.

“Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the developments on the ground in Syria indicate that there is complete coordination between the Zionist regime, the United States, and terrorist groups aimed at destabilizing the Arab country,” Iranian state media reported Tuesday.

Araghchi made his comments during a TV interview. The attack on Aleppo was a “plot” hatched by the US and Israel, according to the Iranians. Araghchi said the timing proves this.

“There is complete coordination between the Zionist regime, the US government, and terrorist groups, and the course of events indicates such coordination because these attacks followed a ceasefire in Lebanon,” he said.

 A rebel led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands in the back of a vehicle in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
A rebel led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands in the back of a vehicle in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)

Why does Iran see it this way? It cites the ceasefire in Lebanon on the eve of the attack by HTS. The Syrian opposition surprised the Syrian regime. This is because the regime was likely watching developments in Lebanon relating to the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Syria’s regime and Iran back Hezbollah. Once the ceasefire began, however, HTS launched its attack in northern Syria. In all likelihood, the defeat of Hezbollah by Israel contributed to the timing of the attack.

There is no evidence that the US and Israel are cheering over the attack by HTS. On the contrary, Israel may be concerned that chaos could develop in Syria. When there is chaos, there are threats to Israel, usually by Iranian-backed groups that exploit the vacuum in power.

Garnering support from Turkey and Russia

Nevertheless, Iran often claims conspiracies to justify its interventions. Tehran wants the US to leave eastern Syria, where the Americans are fighting ISIS alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish force.

Iran wants to use the current war against HTS to not just get the US to leave; it also wants to mobilize attacks against the SDF.


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Turkey agrees with Iran’s view in this context. Ankara has used the HTS attack to mobilize Syrian militias to attack Kurds.

Iran believes it can spread conspiracies about Israel and the US to garner support in Ankara and Moscow.

“I had detailed and important discussions with Bashar al-Assad and conveyed the message of the Islamic Republic of Iran about its full and firm support and backing for the Syrian government and its president.”

Just as the Syrian government was with us during the imposed war, we will also be with this country,” Araghchi said, according to Iranian state media.

“It was decided to continue these consultations and resume the Astana process, he said while referring to his talks with the Turkish counterpart, adding that a meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey will be held in Doha probably next week,” the report said.