Before October 7, 2023, Israel was on the verge of a political normalization with Saudi Arabia. Its only perceived external existential threat was the Iranian nuclear program.
One of the most important and far-reaching consequences of Israel’s wars with Iran and its proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the militias in Syria and Iraq – was the restored unity of the Israeli people and their resilience to fight seemingly endless battles on seven fronts.
This is Israel’s secret recipe beyond the innovative power of the Start-Up Nation. When the war started on Oct. 7, 2023, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah believed Israel was vulnerable because of its disunity, televised from the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in the weekly Saturday night protests against judicial reform. They mistakenly believed Israel was a fragile, divided society, open for attack, not noticing that both sides of the divide were waving hundreds of Israeli flags at every rally. They also thought that democracy and “freedom to speak” were weaknesses of the West, with Israel the lone Western outpost in the authoritarian Middle East. After October 7, Israeli reserve units were 150% oversubscribed, with reserve soldiers abroad catching the first flights back to join their comrades. Thousands have served for more than a year as Israel was finally able to turn the tide, decimating Hezbollah, Hamas, and most recently, the Iranian defense system, making the Islamic Republic vulnerable to an attack on its nuclear infrastructure. Suppose the US can overcome isolationist impulses and the hangover of two misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan to prioritize regime change in Iran as part of its long-term foreign policy. In that case, contrary to conventional wisdom, the US will have created a path to a more stable Middle East and decrease the chance of being drawn into a regional war. And yes, it can be done without any American boots in Iran. President-elect Donald Trump, this will be your time to act, just as you bravely did in your first term! The fragile ceasefire in Israel’s North was accepted in part because of the fatigue of the Israeli soldiers and logistic analysts projecting inconsistent supply lines to sustain the fight in both Gaza and Lebanon. However, American pressure and threats were likely the deciding factor for Israel to accept a suboptimal truce. Hezbollah chose a ceasefire, or better said, Iran allowed Hezbollah to accept a truce because the Supreme Leader is afraid of losing his most crucial proxy force in their ring of fire surrounding Israel. Since Hezbollah is not a party to the ceasefire, which is a surprise to most people, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will not be ready for months or years or ever to be willing or capable of confronting Hezbollah, expect hostilities to resume. The international ostracism of Israel will be led by French President Emmanuel Macron, a primary party to monitor the agreement. Expect Macron to act like Charles De Gaulle in 1967, hostile to Israel. Accepting France as a watchdog for Israeli violations of the ceasefire was a disaster. Macron will turn on Israel and falsely claim the LAF needs more time to control Hezbollah. The reality is that Hezbollah is weakened, but it is not going anywhere and will be resupplied unless Iran is financially squeezed and the Iranian regime becomes unstable. The French are, unfortunately, more than willing to trade with Iran and thwart any plans the Trump administration has to rein in the Islamists in Tehran. US negotiator Amos Hochstein was just a little behind the French in the one-sided condemnation of Israel less than a week after the tenuous ceasefire was announced. His marching orders are to preserve outgoing President Joe Biden’s semblance of a success at all costs. Biden’s statement that the Lebanese ceasefire was “historic” and would lead to “permanent” peace is detached from reality. We have to wonder whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the Lebanon ceasefire to focus resources on Iran or was an excuse to deflect attention from what some call a premature ceasefire without establishing a buffer zone to give reassurance to the northern residents to return. Opposition leader Benny Gantz, writing in the Wall Street Journal, has an ambitious list of goals. Most are worthwhile, some are impractical, but all are likely to be contested or not implemented. He is correct that Israel needs “not only operation(al) freedom against immediate threats…but against any (Hezbollah) force building far from the border,” as well as unlimited air surveillance. Two of his recommendations are sensible but are unlikely to occur: a UN weapons embargo on Hezbollah, and direct talks between Lebanon and Israel. Unfortunately, Hezbollah, though weakened, still holds a veto, so it will not happen anytime soon – unless you think a Lebanese Shia parliamentarian under the thumb of Hezbollah is a legitimate representative of the Lebanese. However, Gantz’s call for expanding UNIFIL’s mandate to use force is not practical or possible, while his recommendation for US CENTCOM to demilitarize and ensure deconfliction will be limited, as no US boots should be on the ground. Will Netanyahu, who has been accused of too much military restraint during his terms in office, risk attacking nuclear facilities beyond what Israel did in Parchin in late October, an undeclared atomic weaponization site? However, without American diplomatic backing and weapons support, providing or using bunker-buster missiles and the means to deliver them, the opportunity to significantly delay the Iranian weapons program for a decade or more may be lost unless Israel has something up its sleeve beyond what is known of its military capabilities. President-elect Trump could thank Israel for destroying Iran’s anti-missile systems in April and October and launch a limited joint US-Israeli attack to decimate its nuclear program. Contrary to conventional thinking, it would create a more stable Middle East with Iran weakened and its proxies bankrupt. It is better to deal with an angry, non-nuclear Iran than with a hegemonic jihadist power feeling invincible with its new atomic bombs. If the US will not strike Iran and Israel is capable, it should unilaterally enforce the Begin Doctrine, never to allow an enemy state to have nuclear weapons, especially when it repeatedly says its ultimate goal is the extermination of the Jewish state. Israel may not be given another chance like this, as Iran with its Axis of Aggression will rebuild its defense system in a shorter time than you might think. If there is no preemptive attack, America will be dealing with a Middle East nuclear arms race within the decade, the worst scenario for US and Israeli interests. Israel’s security in Gaza is dramatically better if your only metric is that, for the time being, Hamas cannot initiate an October 7 attack for years to come. However, the Muslim Brotherhood outfit still hides in dozens of miles of undiscovered tunnels, with thousands of terrorists in small units that will terrorize the population and, in effect, control or at least prevent another entity from coming into Gaza and governing. The Egyptians, Saudis, and Emiratis are unlikely to put their soldiers in harm’s way, knowing Hamas will be sniping and sending its young men back in body bags. That is why it is so crucial that the Trump team be convinced to support Israel’s fight in Gaza for years to come in a protracted guerrilla war against Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. The West Bank has become a Hamas stronghold with Iranian weapons, and we can expect the IRGC to double down in supplying weapons. An excellent Israeli first step is building a more advanced fence in the Jordan River Valley to prevent arms transfers. The cost will be billions of shekels for an economy already in difficult straits. The Saudis backed themselves into a corner, demanding a path to a Palestinian state in exchange for normalization. The Trump team should reintroduce the Peace to Prosperity plan, which will give the Saudis cover, as the corrupt PA will reject it outright. The Saudis are anxious for an upgraded US defense relationship, and their interests lie in moving ahead with a peace treaty similar to the Abraham Accords. The Trump administration should make this a priority in foreign policy. Israel’s security in 2025 will be challenged on its eighth front, the international community boycott and sanctions movement to delegitimize Israel. I am confident that the Trump administration will not only protect Israel against the lawfare being thrown against Israel in the UN, the ICJ, and the ICC but will also defund the biased, antisemitic, and anti-American UN Human Rights Council. Domestically, the new administration should be encouraged to create an effective plan to end Iranian support of pro-Hamas protesters in the US and end foreign funding of US universities by governments that have supported terror. Number one in the crosshairs is Qatar. If Israel’s societal unity breaks down, its overall external security challenges will be magnified. In the future, judicial reform can be managed as most people want some reform, but not the extreme legislation advanced in 2022-23. The more challenging domestic problem is the friction between the more secular society and the growing numbers of ultra-orthodox haredim, who participate minimally in the military and secular education, and demand that the rest of society support them economically. Why are religious Zionists who pay the greatest price in blood and treasure not leading the charge to enlist or defund the haredim until they fully contribute to society? After the physical and emotional sacrifice religious Zionists have paid in this war, they need to put aside coalition concerns and demand that the haredim not become institutionalized freeloaders. This is a profound security concern as hundreds of thousands of reservists cannot be called on repeatedly while their fellow citizens sit on the sidelines. In the long term, unless Iran is dealt with by the US and Israel, it will remain an existential threat as long as it continues in its march to gain nuclear weapons. In the short term, Israel faces low-scale kinetic wars of attritionagainst Iranian proxies. Expect weakened jihadists to increase terror against soft targets not only against Israel and Jews but also on Western civilians to induce European nations to pressure Israel. 2025 will be a challenge for Israel and its only steadfast ally, the United States. Expect the unexpected, as the Middle East never follows predictable paths. As Walter Russell Mead wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “The Middle East never loses its capacity to surprise.” However, what October 7 teaches is not to underestimate your adversary, remain innovative, and create the mechanisms for rapid decision-making. With some quiet in kinetic activity likely in 2025, official investigations must begin for Israel’s colossal intelligence failure. Uncompromising inquiries were carried out in the past after security failures like the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2006 Second Lebanon War, and Israel’s ability to fight the inevitable next war requires this painful inquiry. Israel was bloodied but has emerged as the undisputed power in the Middle East, while Iran and its proxies have been weakened. The incoming US president respects strong nations like Israel that can fight by themselves and prevail. That is a winning formula for Israel for the next four years. ■ The writer is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and regularly briefs members of the US Congress and their foreign policy aides on the Middle East. Lebanon
Iran
Gaza and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria)
The Saudis and Palestinians
Lawfare
Israeli unity
The forecast
