Israel continued to pound Gaza over the weekend, as Palestinians reported tens of people killed in the ongoing war between the Hamas terrorist organization and the Jewish state.
The Israeli military announced it had carried out airstrikes against over 100 targets, including Hamas terrorists and rocket launching sites.
For over a year, Israel has staged a massive military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Its stated goals are to remove Hamas as a governing power in the territory and release all the hostages.
In what appears to be an intensification of the fighting and amid the war, Hamas and Israel are engaged in indirect talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire and releasing at least some of the 100 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas since the beginning of the war.
Thousands of Israelis rallied on Saturday evening to protest the government and pressure it to reach a deal with Hamas.
Israel's continued military presence in the Gaza Strip and the refusal by the current government to withdraw from the territory, a pre-condition by Hamas for any deal, has so far blocked a ceasefire from being reached.
The army is not only present in Gaza, but it also continues to fight at varying levels of intensity. On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued evacuation warnings for areas in the center of the Gaza Strip ahead of an operation there. The IDF also continued to operate in the north of the territory.
"The area consists of structures overlooking Israeli territory and serves as a central terror hub containing anti-tank firing positions, booby traps, shafts, numerous explosives, and launch sites for targeting Israeli territory," read a statement by the army.
In addition, the army continues to control the Philadephi and Netzarim corridors in southern and central Gaza, respectively, aimed at blocking Hamas from being able to re-arm and re-position itself.
Adopting a policy of incursions rather than operating in the whole of Gaza continuously, the army has found itself often re-entering areas it has already operated in several times.
Flaws of "mowing the grass"
This policy of "mowing the grass," coined by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Eitan Shamir, has entangled Israel in its longest war ever. It refers to a strategy of pinpointed military operations limited in time to quell a temporary threat, barring a more permanent political solution.
But, according to Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, Hamas' military abilities cannot be defeated as quickly as critics of the IDF strategy would like to believe.
"Hamas had over twenty years to accumulate a massive amount of firepower, dispersing it in many areas, including in its widespread underground tunnel network," Shamir told The Media Line. "Combined with other terrorist organizations, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), it had approximately 30,000 fighters. This could take two to three years to get rid of."
Israeli forces are continuing to find weapons depots to encounter Hamas terrorists and tunnels, in a testament to the continuance of Hamas' presence in the territory.
"There is an estimated 40% of the tunnels still remaining, hundreds of kilometers of tunnels the Israeli intelligence was not aware of," said Yoni Ben Menachem, an expert of Middle Eastern affairs from Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told The Media Line. "There are still very long tunnels that Israel has yet to have located, some of them with hostages inside. This requires a very big operation and a massive amount of explosives that Israel currently does not possess."
Hamas stunned Israel on October 7th, 2023, when it attacked the south of the country in a rampage that killed approximately 1200 Israelis and wounded thousands more. It also took approximately 250 people hostage, 100 still in captivity. In response, Israel launched a massive war against Hamas. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed since and over 107000 wounded. 390 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the ground invasion of Gaza.
The war quickly developed into a regional, multi-front confrontation. The Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthi terror groups began launching attacks against Israel, forcing it to respond and divert critical resources to other fronts. A fragile and temporary ceasefire with Hezbollah has been in place for a month now. Should it last, Israeli troops are expected to withdraw from southern Lebanon at the end of January.
"Israel does not have enough forces at this point to subdue Hamas both militarily and in its ability to govern Gaza," Ben Menachem said. "In order to do that, Israel needs to occupy the entire Gaza Strip and announce it is enforcing temporary military administration."
According to Ben Menachem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is waiting for major developments before progressing in that direction.
One is the fate of the ceasefire and hostage deal talks, and the other is the upcoming change in the US administration, with President Joe Biden's departure and Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20th. Netanyahu hopes Trump, who has favored his policies during his previous term, will pose less of an impediment.
"The Israeli government has so far avoided discussing its plans for Gaza after the war because of the opposition from the Biden administration to an Israeli military rule there," Ben Menachem said.
Netanyahu has not ruled out a military rule in Gaza, although he has shot down calls from within his coalition to re-settle Gaza with Jewish settlements. In addition to setting Hamas' removal from power as one of the war goals, the Israeli premier has also voiced opposition to the return of the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza, deeming it a supporter of terrorism.
"The alternative to incursions is military rule, which will enable complete control of Gaza," said Shamir. "It will prevent, not completely, Hamas' ability to rise up. But it will require a lot of resources because it is essentially occupying Gaza."
Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005, ending 38 years of complete control of the territory.
"It will take a long time, but Israel's presence in Gaza now, including its blockade on Gaza through the control of all of its entrances, is not the perfect option," Shamir added. "But it does meet the needs. There is not much different that Israel can do, and it will take time."
The Israeli leader is also facing calls to change the policy regarding the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza.
The aid, facilitated mainly by Israel through its control of all of Gaza's entry points, has been an issue of contention within Israel since the beginning of the war in October of last year. It has also been subject to international scrutiny and critique. Some members of the government want to see the IDF distributing the aid as a means to weaken Hamas' hold on Gaza. Right now, Israel oversees the entrance of the aid but has humanitarian organizations responsible for its dispersal, a process often hampered by Hamas' ability to take over the aid and control its distribution.
Israeli media has reported that the army Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, plans to resign in the coming weeks. Halevi, who is seen by many in the Israeli public as partially responsible for the blunder that enabled Hamas' surprise attack, is reportedly awaiting the conclusion of internal military inquiries into events that led up to the war. Halevi is believed to have been contrarian to the Netanyahu government on many issues, including humanitarian aid and the conduct of the war effort in Gaza.
"There are places in Gaza, especially in the center, which the army has not entered yet," said Ben Menachem. "The war in Gaza has been handled haphazardly, with a lack of strategy. Mowing the grass is not efficient and can only be done once Hamas has been won over in order to prevent it from re-grouping and not when it still has a standing army of 20000 armed terrorists."
The presence of Israeli hostages is also believed to be one of the reasons behind decision-making in the war.
"The presence of hostages does not pose a major limitation on how the war is waged," said Shamir. "The IDF effort is limited by international law and the deep embedment of Hamas terrorists in the civilian population in Gaza."
If the ceasefire talks fail, there could be an intensification of the fighting by Israel in an attempt to increase the pressure on Hamas. However, after fifteen months of war, the terrorist organization has shown no flexibility in its demand from Israel to completely withdraw from Gaza and stop all military action against it. This is despite the massive price Palestinians have paid and the widespread damage in the Gaza Strip, which has rendered many areas unrecognizable.
"The hostages remain Hamas' only leverage," said Shamir. "Unless Israel meets Hamas demands, only a partial deal that will ease some of the pressure off Hamas is possible."