“Israeli officials should extend a message of peace to Syria rather than alienate them,” stressed Hazem Alghabra, a former senior US State Department adviser bborn in Damascus, arguing this may help in distancing the country’s population from Islamist agendas and extremist ideologies.Alghabra spoke during a roundtable discussion hosted by The Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), where he shared his insights on the future of the Middle East in the aftermath of the Assad regime’s fall.
The discussion, titled “Syria and the Al-Julani Factor: Will He Restore or Renounce Assad’s Bloody Legacy?” aimed at introducing a working paper featuring suggestions on the situation in Syria to both the Israeli government and the US administration.
Alghabra said there is no military threat against Israeli troops from the Golan, calling the border areas controlled by the Druze as a “second buffer zone,” which is “friendly-ish” toward Israel.“Israel is emerging as a superpower; make no mistakes,” Alghabra continued. “This is a slight silver lining following the horrid October 7 attacks. Much has changed though [in] the region, and Israel is the one which emerged as a ‘strong horse.’ Neither Turkey nor Iran has an interest in direct conflict with Israel, whose fighter jets and beeper operations made the country a formidable opponent no one wants to upset.”
Alghabra said that, for this reason, Israel must start behaving like the regional superpower it is.“Israel should want more than just pushing away armies from their borders. It should also see Syria as a potential customer for its successful irrigation projects or other economic collaborations,” he said. “So instead of asking what [Abu Mohammed] al-Julani will do, Israel should ask itself what it wants to achieve and how it can convey those messages to the new Syrian leader.”
A victor’s peace
Israel’s emergence as a regional superpower, according to Alghabra, must lead it to convey the correct messages in the correct forums.“Branding Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham as a ‘bunch of terrorists’ closes the door both externally toward the new Syrian leadership but also internally,” Alghabra said, hinting at the description of HTS used by some Israeli officials.“The Israeli people would not want their government to make contact with someone described by the same government as a terrorist. For all we know, Julani can become irrelevant tomorrow, so it’s worth attempting to make it clear to the Syrians that Israel brings a message of peace out of a victor’s position.”Alghabra highlighted the issue of the “victor’s peace” through an example from US history.“Following the [US] Civil War and the loss of the South, citizens in the South were waiting to be massacred and pillaged by their adversaries. But the North came down with doctors and teachers, and this mercy of the victorious changed history and gave us the US that we have today, which is not perfect, but pretty darn good,” he said lightheartedly.“Peace is a process of hundreds of years, not merely weeks. The stronger side initiates peace, and Israel is the stronger side here.”Extending a message of peace does not necessarily mean granting legitimization, Alghabra said.“Take Saudi Arabia or the UAE’s approach, for instance. They are meeting Julani because they are interested in Syria’s future. They’re not granting legitimization to his ideologies but are hedging their bets and playing [their] part in the internal row over influence in the new Syria, securing their interests and positions.”Alghabra said he is not oblivious to the Islamist nature of the new government, bringing up the viral videos circulating online that showed the new Syrian Justice Minister, Shadi Al-Waisi overseeing the violent execution of women in 2015.“Nobody is happy, nor will everyone ever be happy, not even [the] Syrians themselves,” he said. “But the Syrian people know that they need economic opportunities and rapprochement with the international community. Both can be consolidated through peace with Israel, so Israel should sound a clear message of peace.”In this context, Alghabra mentioned that, based on conversations he had with the Syrian side, he felt there was an unprecedented openness for recognition of Israel and even peace.“Don’t close the door; put the message out there,” Alghabra encouraged. “Worst case scenario, they don’t take it. The automatic messaging that Julani is ‘bad’ means pushing him even further toward Turkey or Qatar, and there’s no benefit from that. A lack of clear messaging from Israel makes it easier for Israel’s adversaries to speak on behalf of Israel, distort its image, and make them think ‘Turkey is good, Israel is bad.’”
Acting like an empire
Dan Diker, president of the JCFA, reinforced Alghabra’s words about Israel’s strong position.“Israel today can reach out to Syria not out of flattery, as we’ve done in the past, but as a regional ‘strong horse.’ We have met in the center with people from Arab countries, some of which don’t have diplomatic relations with Israel, and many have said that they’re prepared to honor Israel if it would honor them back."Israel is in a stronger position to navigate and see itself as the regional superpower it is, to set things straight after suffering abuse for the past eight decades. Israel suffered from two traumas: the victory of 1967 and the First Lebanon War.“Following 1967, we saw ourselves as an empire but didn’t behave like one. Then, in 1982, we wanted to reshape Lebanon, but the results were disastrous, and we must learn from both experiences.”Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at JCFA and formerly the director-general of the Strategic Affairs Ministry, referred in his remarks to Syria’s “state evolution,” as he named it.“The person currently leading Syria is an ex-al-Qaeda member. This is a problematic issue, and the situation is unstable and fragile,” Kuperwasser said.“Up until now, the very ability to use the term ‘Syria’ was reserved for the Assad regime,” Kuperwasser continued, “and now al-Sharaa [another name for Julani] has to consolidate the country in order to do so as well. Despite the fact that the international community accepts him de facto as the new leader, we must remember that many Druze, Kurds, and even Sunnis have their reservations regarding him.”In this context, Kuperwasser reminded the audience that Julani did not conquer Damascus himself, but rather, it was the rebel forces from the south who were more loyal to the Russians. “They took over the city and handed it to Al-Sharaa,” he stressed, highlighting the fractured situation within Syrian society, even within the Sunni Jihadist camp.Prof. Christian Kaunert, a scholar specializing in European security and a fellow at JCFA, referred to the European angle on the fall of the Assad regime.“In Europe, everyone was caught by surprise from the fall of the regime,” he said. “In the past, the Arab Spring invoked reactions claiming that democracy was coming, likening it to the fall of the Berlin Wall, but, now, there was some sobering.”Kaunert continued, “Some of the discourse in Germany revolved around the member of the Green Party who visited Damascus where officials refuse to shake her hand. With the coming elections in Germany, much of the political discourse will deal with the issue of returning Syrian refugees back to Syria and terror attacks as well.“In this context, Israel must be careful from coalescing with people perceived as fringe in the political arena.”