Israel and Hamas are close to a hostage and ceasefire deal, and it could be imminent, diplomatic sources said Monday. According to the proposed deal, which is not fully guaranteed and is subject to change, 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza but their continued presence in an undefined security perimeter, the sources said.
Israel’s senior delegation in Doha, including Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) Director Ronen Bar and Mossad Director David Barnea, would remain in Qatar “for the time being,” potentially until a deal is signed, people familiar with the matter said.
The Hamas delegation said the Gaza ceasefire talks were progressing well, and that it was dealing with developments in a positive manner, it said after meeting with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.
On the 16th day of the ceasefire, negotiations would start regarding the next stages of the deal, with the goal of releasing all the hostages and IDF withdrawals. The diplomatic sources did not provide a definite time frame, but some said they expected the first phase would last 42 days.
As of Monday, none of the 33 hostages expected to be released in the first phase of a possible deal were confirmed dead, one of the sources said. Sources said they believed that most of the 33 hostages were alive, and that Youssef Ziyadne, whose body was recovered by the IDF last week, was originally on the list.
There is no certainty as to when the deal will be signed. Sources reiterated that the IDF would not fully withdraw from Gaza until every hostage was released.
A cabinet vote and an expected High Court of Justice ruling on petitions to block the deal would also be necessary for the deal to come through, people familiar with the matter said.
Should this happen, the first hostages could be released fairly quickly, one source said.
The security perimeter is something Israel would retain regardless of the withdrawal of troops. It appeared that some soldiers would remain there during Phase 1 but not at some later phases, when forces would only be at a security perimeter, which informed sources said would include the full length of the Gaza Strip and not just the northern part.
All indications were that the IDF would withdraw from the Netzarim corridor, which divides northern and southern Gaza. There would be unspecified “security arrangements” to review those who would be allowed to return to the north.
In the past, The Jerusalem Post has been told that other than the senior remaining Hamas terrorists, there would be little Israel could do to prevent most rank-and-file Hamas fighters from returning to northern Gaza.
Pressed on how this deal would be better than a similar one discussed last July, sources said Hamas was not ready to make the deal at that time.
Questioned about what it meant that Hamas was not willing to make a deal in mid-2024, sources said that after Israel’s April 27 offer, which is the basis of the current deal, Hamas responded on May 6 at 8 p.m., offering to return a list of mostly dead “humanitarian” hostages.
Hamas strategy
Trying to mislead Israel, sources said Hamas had claimed many hostages who Israel was confident were alive were, in fact, dead to get Jerusalem to receive other hostages who were dead.
The strategy was to get Israel to accept as many dead hostages as possible upfront and then to later “discover” that more hostages were alive to be able to better use them for altering the parameters of any deal at a later date.
Part of the deal would be the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Israel would not release any Hamas terrorist belonging to the Nukhba forces, which took part in the October 7 massacre, a diplomatic source said Monday.
The list of terrorists expected to be released from prisons as part of the deal’s first phase does include some sentenced to life, the source added.
The prisoners with blood on their hands would not be released to the West Bank, a person familiar with the matter said, without commenting on whether they would be released to Turkey.
The number of Palestinian security prisoners being released would shift depending on how many hostages were alive, a source said.
Dozens of demonstrators protested outside the entrance to Jerusalem on Monday evening, demanding a more expansive deal that would include all of the hostages instead of a phased deal. Some family members of hostages expressed their concerns that if their loved ones were not on the list of 33, it would be a death sentence because there is no way of ensuring that all phases of the deal will come to fruition.
The proposed deal secures some kind of security perimeter, a larger number of live hostages to be returned at Phase 1, and an unspecified achievement regarding the Philadelphi corridor, the sources said. Last July, 18 hostages were often discussed, not 33.
They further emphasized that pressure by the US, such as the partial arms embargo in May, Iran’s direct attacks in April, global condemnations of Israel, and other events had hardened Hamas’s positions at some other points when a deal seemed close.
Unsaid by the sources was that this deal would be cut by Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre, and that both Israel and Mohammed Sinwar might ultimately be finding it easier to cut a deal than it was with Yahya Sinwar, who Israel killed last October.