Israel at war: What happened on days 21-22?

The Israel Defense Forces have entered the Gaza Strip and are operating on the ground with support from troops in the air and at sea, Israel's political and military leadership said Saturday night.

"Last night, additional ground forces entered Gaza, marking the beginning of the second stage of the war, whose goal is to destroy the military and political capabilities of Hamas and to bring our kidnapped citizens back," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an evening briefing. 

"We are only at the beginning of the road. The war will be tough and long," the prime minister said. But he stressed, "We are prepared for it. This is our second War of Independence. This is our mission, our purpose in life, and together we will prevail."

Netanyahu said that not only do "the people and the leadership stand behind our soldiers," but also the international community is rooting for Israel. 

"Our partners understand that if Israel doesn't win, they will be next," he said. "Many around the world understand well that Israel is not only fighting its war but a war for all of humanity, a war of humanity against barbarism."

Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry released a statement on Saturday condemning any ground operations by Israeli forces that may threaten the lives of Palestinian civilians.

"The Kingdom condemns and denounces the ground operations carried out by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, and warns of the danger of continuing to carry out these blatant and unjustified violations of international law against our brotherly Palestinians," the statement said.

Early on Saturday, the Israeli military said it had entered northern Gaza overnight and expanded military operations in the Gaza Strip as it steps up its assault on the Hamas militant group.

Israel's military on Saturday reissued a call for Palestinians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip ahead of an impending Israeli operation.

Israel, which says Hamas has placed its weapons and forces among civilians, has been telling Gaza's residents to move south for their own safety.

"This is an urgent military advisory," said spokesman Daniel Hagari on social media platform X. "For your immediate safety, we urge all residents of northern Gaza and Gaza City to temporarily relocate south."

"The impending IDF (Israel Defense Forces) operation is set to neutralize the threat of Hamas with precision and intensity," he said.

The "ground shook in Gaza last night," Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Saturday as he warned the IDF "entered a new stage in the conflict...the operation will continue until new orders are given."

The defense minister held an operational situation assessment with senior defense establishment officials. The discussion was centered on military operations, the hostage situation, and humanitarian concerns. 

“I completed a situation assessment. Last night we accomplished [completed] a phase in the war. We will continue to be strong and precise. And hunt down every terrorist.”

Gallant directed the officials to continue strikes in Gaza targeting Hamas terrorist positions.

Elon Musk stated that the SpaceX-owned satellite internet constellation, Starlink, will support internet connectivity to internationally recognized aid organizations in Gaza in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Saturday.

"Starlink will support connectivity to internationally recognized aid organizations in Gaza. [ComStar]," Musk Wrote.

Starlink will support connectivity to internationally recognized aid organizations in Gaza.

[ComStar]

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 28, 2023

The news comes in the wake of a report from NetBlocks that internet connectivity had largely collapsed in the Hamas-controlled enclave.

Israel struck terror targets in Lebanon amid a rocket barrage from Lebanon that sounded rocket alarms in northern Israeli communities including Margoliot, Misgav Am, and the Bedouin town of Arab el-Aramshe on Saturday.

Previously, an Israeli fighter jet hit terrorist infrastructure on Friday night. The Israeli strike came in response to rocket fire from Hezbollah.

While the launches were aimed at Israel, the rockets apparently misfired and landed in Syrian territory.

IDF intercepts surface-to-air missile

On Saturday, the IDF said it targeted a surface-to-air missile, also launched from Lebanese territory. The missile interception caused a loud blast that was reportedly heard throughout northern Israel.

The IDF subsequently struck at the source of the missile launch.

A home in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba suffered a direct rocket impact, following a barrage from the Gaza Strip on Saturday.

No injuries were reported. Sirens also sounded along the Gaza border.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that Israel's bombardment of Gaza runs counter to international law and risks creating a catastrophe that could last decades.

Lavrov made the comments, some of Moscow's most critical of Israel yet, in an interview with the Belarusian state news agency Belta, which released them on Saturday.

"While we condemn terrorism, we categorically disagree that you can respond to terrorism by violating the norms of international humanitarian law, including indiscriminately using force against targets where civilians are known to be present, including hostages that have been taken," said Lavrov.

It was impossible, he added, to destroy Hamas - as Israel has vowed to do - without destroying Gaza along with most of its civilian population.

"If Gaza is destroyed and 2 million inhabitants are expelled, as some politicians in Israel and abroad propose, this will create a catastrophe for many decades, if not centuries," warned Lavrov.

The IDF and the Shin Bet captured 11 terrorists in an operation overnight and Saturday morning, the organizations said on Saturday afternoon. 

Among the 11 arrested, two were members of the Hamas terrorist organization.

Specifically, During a divisional operation in the Jalazone Camp north of Ramallah, IDF forces, in collaboration with the Civil Administration, demolished an illegal house belonging to a Hamas activist. In addition, forces searched buildings, interrogated suspects, and arrested three wanted individuals.

IDF, Shin Bet capture 11 terrorists, demolish West Bank home in recent operation | Full story: https://t.co/S6jh9Hb3wb@MaayanJaffe pic.twitter.com/UIsSPIAETy

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 28, 2023

Much discussion has already been had regarding whether Hezbollah will join the war to help Hamas, with conclusions ranging from full involvement to partial support to no support at all.

Caspian Report is trying "to make sense of an increasingly complicated world by cutting through the noise and analyzing geopolitical trends."

Their latest video report tackles the question of whether Hezbollah will intervene to support Hamas, as both are supported by Iran and are seen as Iranian proxy groups by the majority of the world.

They spend the first part of the video providing background and explaining the origins of the current war, as well as running through the ongoing skirmishes occurring near the Lebanese border.

So, will Hezbollah intervene in favor of Hamas?

Ultimately, they don't see Hezbollah joining as likely, however, they do say in what scenario Hezbollah would most likely join and why.

"Iran didn't build up Hamas over the years, only to leave it alone to deal with Israel's devastating counter-offensive."

As a result, if Hezbollah were to attack they believe it is most likely to occur during an Israeli assault on Gaza and will happen at a time most convenient to Hezbollah rather than Hamas, citing the 2006 war as evidence of previous success of this strategy.

However, they are careful to say that it would be wrong to judge Hezbollah based on its 2006 performance as they have massively expanded their arsenal of weapons, enough to even cause trouble for American carriers with anti-ship missiles.

Why has Hezbollah not gotten involved?

"If Hezbollah and Iran have such an advantage, then why haven't they already unleashed hell?"

To answer this question Caspian Report delves into two main aspects of Hezbollah, its position in Lebanese politics and the role it holds in the greater Iranian strategy.

They remind us that Hezbollah is also a political party within Lebanon and has been legally part of the Lebanese government since 2005. Currently, Lebanon is experiencing an extreme economic crisis and a war with Israel would only deepen this crisis.

This leads them to conclude that Hezbollah would prefer to remain politically strong and well-liked by the Lebanese public, rather than induce increased internal tensions inside Lebanon.

The next factor is their place within Iranian strategy. Hezbollah acts as an important linchpin for Iranian strategy in the Middle East with their vast arsenal of weapons being a huge threat to Israel.

It is exactly for this reason that Caspian Report believes it unlikely that Iran will deploy said arsenal.

"Employing that firepower in the current Gaza conflict would mean depleting it as a means of deterrence, thereby neutralizing its role as a deterrent," they say. 

This shows Hezbollah as a single-use deterrence, one which can cause extreme damage to Israel and the United States, but one which can only be used once before needing significant time to recover its power.

Using this deterrent over the conflict in Gaza would then leave Iran open to reprisals from the United States, negating the exact reason for maintaining Hezbollah in the first place.

Leaving the ongoing skirmishes as little more than attempts to keep the specter of Iranian involvement alive and keep Israel distracted in its war in Gaza. 

Caspian Report concludes by saying that while Iran may have turned Hamas into the deadly organization it is, Iran cannot afford to lose Hezbollah. 

"If push comes to shove, it is usually better to give up a pawn if it means protecting a rook."