Israel and Hezbollah have been in a low-grade conflict since both sides decided to avoid a repeat of the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
But in 2023, Hezbollah has been moving the often silent conflict to a low to medium boil, with a terror attack deep inside Israel at Megiddo in March, followed by establishing a small outpost within Israeli territory in the disputed Mount Dov area and a variety of other border provocations.
Can Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s meeting in New York on Tuesday with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres help end the standoff between Jerusalem and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah over the outpost?
Some of the signs would suggest there is no chance of a quick resolution of the issue or of reducing the tension level, in general, any time soon.
Nasrallah's threats against Israel
Nasrallah just issued another threat against Israel on Monday, after multiple threats in the last month or so, this time against any Israeli operations to kill Palestinian terrorists and other third-party terror groups operating in Lebanon.
While not public, some Israeli officials have been toying more seriously with striking terrorists in Lebanon who are not affiliated with Hezbollah.
The idea has been that Hezbollah has used such terrorists to fire rockets at Israel, while trying to maintain its own deniability at being involved.
Although Israel has fired back in such instances, it has not taken more proactive measures against such groups, something the Jewish state might think it can do without escalating into a general war with Hezbollah, since it would leave the terror group out of the line of fire.
Whether this potential Israeli strategy will happen and could work or not, Nasrallah’s public statements, including a refusal to withdraw from the outpost, and some of his actions indicate he is enjoying challenging Israel over border dispute issues.
Moreover, in 2022, UNIFIL’s peacekeeping mandate regarding preserving order and peace on the border was strengthened slightly, something which angered Nasrallah.
Following that, there were incidents where UNIFIL forces were roughed up or even killed by Hezbollah supporters.
All signs are that Hezbollah and Lebanon are trying to weaken UNIFIL’s operations on Wednesday of this week as the issue comes before the UN Security Council.
In that case, although Gallant made explicit statements pushing Guterres and the UN to take its side and convince Hezbollah to abandon the outpost in the disputed area, the defense minister’s true mission is probably just to get UNIFIL to hold the line and not become any weaker than it already is.
A minor issue in the larger scope
Also, the Jerusalem Post understands that Gallant views the outpost as a minor issue in the much larger game of Israeli-Hezbollah relations.
Top IDF officials have said that the major priority is not how soon the outpost is removed, though they are committed to seeing it removed at some point, but to paving the way for Israel to make its new fencing and obstacles on the border permanent.
For around a year, the IDF has been adding fencing and obstacles in parts of the border where the UN-declared border Blue Line has no actual geographic definition and may rest on an open area petal of grass.
Israel is doing this to reduce Hezbollah’s ability to invade, but this has infuriated Nasrallah and it is another piece of the conflict between the sides.
So it is not expected that Gallant’s meeting with Guterres will radically change the broader long-term dynamics between the sides or lead to an immediate removal of the outpost.
But the defense minister may hope that his gruff and demanding presence may at least move the dial some at the UN to give Israel some more backing in the full spectrum of ongoing issues under dispute, and maybe help get the outpost removed sometime in the coming months.