America's unpredictability casts doubt on annexation - analysis
In order to go ahead with annexation, Netanyahu needs certainty in Washington.
By HERB KEINONThen-US Vice President Joe Biden (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu look at each other as they deliver joint statements during their meeting in Jerusalem March 9, 2016(photo credit: DEBBIE HILL/REUTERS)
It’s the Americans’ fault.That, at least, was the subtext of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s answer Monday evening to a question in a Channel 20 interview as to why he has not gone ahead and extended Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria.“It was clear from the start that the application of sovereignty would be done only with agreement from the United States. Otherwise, I would have already done it a while ago,” Netanyahu said. “Trump is now busy with other things, and this [sovereignty] is not on the top of his mind.”Those looking for an indication that Israel is headed to a fourth election within 19 months, need look no further than that interview, and this for two reasons.The first is the very fact that Netanyahu granted the interview. Netanyahu almost never gives one-on-one interviews to the Israeli press, except during an election season.Second, shifting the blame to the US for not extending sovereignty is a clear campaign message to the right wing: “It’s not my fault, but Washington’s.”Why is that a sign of impending elections?Because if elections are held, Netanyahu will be battling Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party for right-wing voters. Yamina is sure to pounce on what it will present as Netanyahu’s abject failure at taking advantage of the opportunity afforded by having US President Donald Trump in the White House, and extending Israel’s sovereignty to the settlements. Netanyahu’s message is that he wanted to, but the Americans did not give the green light.And though Netanyahu said that Trump has other things on his mind right now other than annexation, one thing weighing heavy on Netanyahu’s own mind when considering such a move is Trump’s position in the US polls and the very real likelihood that he may lose the November election, and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be sitting in the White House on January 20.Netanyahu knows well that Biden is fervently opposed to annexation, that he could reverse any American recognition of the move after taking office, and that it therefore makes little to no sense to go ahead with this now, with Trump’s political future so much in doubt.
To go ahead with annexation, Netanyahu needs certainty in Washington. But such certainty is nowhere to be found.Jerusalem, like the rest of the world, is watching carefully as the US enters the final lap of a presidential campaign that began with Democratic Party debates more than a year ago, in June 2019. All assumptions of what will be have been placed on hold as the nature of this race has been upended by the coronavirus, and will be upended even more going forward.The Democrats are scheduled to hold their convention next week, a convention expected to coronate – via long distance – Biden as the nominee, and will feature long-distance speeches from a bevy of Democratic heavyweights, from Barack Obama to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bill Clinton to Bernie Sanders.Jerusalem will be watching carefully, analyzing each speech to see the degree to which the “progressive wing” is impacting the party.That Ocasio-Cortez is one of the featured speakers is a sign that will cause concern, but one counterbalanced by the fact that the progressives did not win the day on Israel when it came to the party’s platform, which is to be ratified at the convention.Biden, according to a report on Thursday in Foreign Policy, stepped in to assure that the section dealing with Israel does not include the word “occupation.”A pared-down convention, with only a few hundred delegates actually attending the event in Milwaukee, ensures that there is not a high-profile floor-fight over this issue, something that happened at the Democratic convention in 2012 over the Jerusalem issue. And being spared such a public fight is good for Israel.With the coronavirus and race relations in the US stirring up passions, Israel will be content to stay out of the limelight in the current supercharged partisan atmosphere, and not draw undue attention to itself.Annexation would do just that. So even though Netanyahu said the issue is being held up in Washington, he is probably – when looking at the US domestic political scene – not that disappointed.The joker in this mix, however, is Trump. A week after the Democratic confab, the Republicans will hold their convention, also mostly via the Internet. To give an indication of how unpredictable and unconventional everything is right now, a week before the event – usually carefully choreographed for an incumbent seeking reelection – it is not even clear from where Trump will give his speech accepting the party’s nomination. From Gettysburg? From the White House?With Trump trailing in some of the polls by double digits, voices are still being raised, saying that he may push Netanyahu toward annexing now because this will play well with his Evangelical base.But this argument is weak because it gives too much weight to Israel in trying to understand Trump’s appeal to the Evangelical voters.In a nearly 5,000-word article in Sunday’s New York Times exploring the president’s appeal to Evangelicals, the word “Israel” did not appear once, let alone the words “Judea and Samaria” or “annexation.” Trump’s support among Evangelicals has to do with their belief that he is protecting their values and the America they love, even though he may not embody those values. His support for Israel, for annexation, may be an appreciated sideshow, but it is not the main event driving this support.In other words, Evangelical voters are going to vote for Trump – in a recent poll, 82% of white Evangelical voters said they would do so – regardless of whether Israel extends its law to large swaths of Judea and Samaria.Which, at this point, may be good for Netanyahu. Cognizant that Biden might be the next president, and aware of how annexation would complicate his relations with him from the very beginning, Netanyahu is likely comfortable with Trump not pushing the issue right now. Besides, it allows the prime minister to tell his own electorate that he would like to go ahead with the move, but the Americans are holding him back.
