Over the past week, Israelis sat glued to their television screens, anxiously watching the moving sights of the women and children hostages returning from captivity in Gaza.
No one had much time or attention to dedicate to national political affairs. Night after night, the eyes of the nation watched with rapt attention, anticipation, and excitement, waiting to catch a glimpse of the hostages who’d been held in Gaza since October 7, and were finally making their way back home. Day after day, the ears waited to hear the released names of the hostages who were scheduled to be returned home in the next day’s batch.
After almost two months of collective pain, sorrow, and fear, the unraveling live footage of the children and women reuniting with their families melted the hearts of just about every Israeli, and brought the country a much-needed breath of fresh air.
IN THIS very special moment for the nation, no one had the headspace or will to discuss the regular petty political squabbling. But this was the moment the Netanyahu government chose to approve its wartime budget, which first and foremost showed that while the country is united in grief, fear, and sorrow, the coalition is still looking out only for itself.
Despite war with Hamas, Netanyahu government engages in selfish politics
Despite high hopes and big promises for a change in economic priorities following the October 7 massacre, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich formulated a budget that decidedly caters to the needs and demands of the big coalition partners – the settlers and haredim. Just like before October 7, the new budget still includes inflated sums for haredi schools, hundreds of millions of shekels for religious institutions and strengthening Jewish identity and heritage, and hundreds of millions for developing illegal outposts in Judea and Samaria, to name a few.
The finance minister and Moshe Gafni, chairman of the Knesset Finance Committee, have delayed the transfer of funds earmarked for Gaza border communities for weeks now, so that the money would not be reallocated before drafting a preposterously politically motivated budget, which was fully backed by the prime minister, of course.
Despite explicit warnings from the Bank of Israel, which called for all discretionary coalition money to be redirected for the war effort, a position echoed by the senior staff at the Finance Ministry, the cuts made in funding to coalition partners were minimal, less than 20%. This week, the government approved the state budget until the end of 2023, and Smotrich will soon present an additional budget for 2024. It is already perfectly clear, however, that Netanyahu’s and his coalition partners’ priorities haven’t really changed since the war broke out.
THE GOVERNMENT did, however, undergo one major change – at least to its composition – a few days after the October 7 massacre, when Benny Gantz and four other National Unity Party members joined the emergency government.
Amid the shock and turmoil that followed the atrocities perpetrated by Hamas, Netanyahu and Gantz signed a brief agreement that focuses solely on the creation of a war cabinet; Gantz and his associates did not ask for or receive portfolios, or any executive authorities, or veto rights regarding budgets and other government decisions and procedures. The only benefit they sought was to join the security and strategy-related decision-making, and to join Netanyahu at the helm to help navigate the acute crisis. But as long as they are part of the government, they are signatories to all its decisions, even if they vote against them, including the preposterous budgets intended to buffer Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s precarious political situation.
Gantz tried to politely persuade Netanyahu and Smotrich that more significant adjustments must be made to the budget, and that more funds need to be allocated to refugees, evacuees, IDF reservists, and businesses, as was recommended by all of the economists in the country.
Last weekend, Gantz dispatched Minister Chili Tropper, known as a symbol of consensus and compromise, to hold meetings and discussions with the finance minister, in an attempt to reach a more balanced and nuanced allocation of coalition funds. However, this effort failed.
On Sunday, the day before the budget was set for the government vote, Gantz sent an open letter to Netanyahu demanding to cancel the budget meeting and threatening to “consider his next steps” if more significant changes are not made to the political coalition budget. Shortly after, the Prime Minister’s Office communicated that Netanyahu was not taking this threat very seriously, and had no intention to make any changes.
Gantz and his associates attended the budget meeting, knowing it was a lost cause. They tried to convince the fellow ministers that the entire budget should be redirected to the war effort, arguing that for the country’s long-term resilience and economic stability, it would be preferable to show restraint. But no one around the table was willing to engage in a constructive discussion. Shas and Likud ministers retaliated with a defensive populist attack in which they accused Gantz and company of being hostile to haredi children and teachers, and of fueling the divisiveness within Israeli society.
In the end, the National Unity Party members gave up, handed in five votes against the budget, and left the premises well before the session came to a close. The only other person who dared to diverge from coalition discipline and vote against the controversial and nonsensical budget was Economy Minister Nir Barkat, who has a prolonged personal and professional rivalry with the finance minister. As expected, the budget passed by an overwhelming majority in the middle of the night. By morning, headlines of the vote had already slipped down far below new moving stories and images about hostages returning from Gaza.
Between the hostage deal and the new political budget, Gantz’s dilemma in the government was sharp, clear, and visible this week.
“On one hand, it’s incredibly fortunate that we have a seat at the table, and we have been able to influence decisions related to the war,” said a senior source in Gantz’s party. “On the other hand, at the same time, we are part of a bad and malfunctioning government that continues its small and sectorial politics even during the war.”
According to several knowledgeable sources, Gantz’s and Gadi Eisenkot’s joining Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in the war cabinet was pivotal in several issues, especially with regard to the release of the hostages. First and foremost, the safe return of the hostages was explicitly defined as one of the war’s objectives only when Gantz and Eisenkot joined the government. And over recent weeks, the two former IDF chiefs of staff, along with Shas leader Arye Deri, have been the primary force propelling the war cabinet to pursue a deal for the return of Israeli women and children, while Netanyahu and Gallant took a tougher stance and delayed the contacts with nuances.
Gantz and Eisenkot were also those who convinced Smotrich and his party to vote for the hostage-for-prisoner exchange last week, even though it goes against their ideological and political inclination to oppose releasing terrorists from Israeli prisons and negotiations with Hamas. The only people who voted against the deal were Ben-Gvir and the ministers from his Otzma Yehudit Party. One can only imagine what the results of the hostage deal vote might have looked like within Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s far-right government, without the responsible and security-focused approach provided by the National Unity bloc which strengthened Netanyahu’s standing against his coalition zealots.
Gantz and his associates have been striving to focus solely on wartime matters, and to distance themselves as much as possible from Netanyahu and his partners’ petty political, personal, and sectoral politics. That’s why, despite Gantz’s implicit threat concerning the sectoral budget, sources close to him say that he has no intention of withdrawing from the government, at least not yet.
“We joined the government to contribute to handling war-related issues, following the most catastrophic blow Israel has ever suffered. So long as the war continues, hostages remain in Gaza, and hundreds of reservists are stationed in the south and north of Israel, we will remain within the government because that is the correct thing to do, even if it comes with a political cost,” said a senior source close to Gantz.
MEANWHILE, GANTZ has only gained from joining Netanyahu. Wartime opinion polls found that his popularity has skyrocketed to between 36 and 40 seats, positioning him as the main contender as the next prime minister. However, as long as Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir do not change their modus operandi, the government’s failures and shortcomings might begin sticking to him as well.
Gantz and his supporters understand that his electoral base’s patience regarding his partnership with Netanyahu and his religious extremist allies will eventually run out. In a few weeks, Smotrich will start drafting the 2024 budget, which could secure the government’s survival until 2025, and Gantz’s dilemma will shine bright once again. As time goes by, opposition pressure is increasing, and leaders of the mass anti-government protests are already contemplating when to go back to the streets.
For now, Gantz does not have an exit strategy from the government, neither how nor when. Any political exit strategy will be closely connected and linked to the country’s exit strategy out of the war, which the cabinet has not yet discussed.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is busy preparing for the “day after” – and for the moment Gantz decides it’s enough. He is holding daily political conversations with Likudniks to downplay any mutiny and make sure everyone is on board, and to ensure no one abandons him when Gantz eventually decides to withdraw from the government.
At the same time, Likud MKs are already waging a blunt campaign against Gantz, trying to portray him as a proponent of the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war.
As it stands, the answer to the question how long Gantz will remain in the government depends not only on the progress of the war, but also on Netanyahu and his cohorts’ next political steps.
“As long as Netanyahu acts like a statesman, sticks to Israel’s national security interests, and we make real progress in the war, we will stay. However, if he and his allies continue with political games and shenanigans, our time in the government will be cut short,” said a senior source in Gantz’s party.
Translated by Hannah Hochner.•