Faint calls from last week for a national unity government to bring the country together before a possible full-on war with Hezbollah were drowned out Monday by talk of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sacking Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replacing him with United Right chairman Gideon Sa’ar.
One, the national unity government, might have charitably been called the national salvation government, trying to quell national divisions, including those over a possible hostage deal that has reemerged with renewed intensity at a most inopportune moment: with the focus of the fighting shifting from the South to the North.
The second might be called the Sa’ar/haredi draft bill salvation government, as it would throw a safety raft to Sa’ar’s sinking political career and also likely ensure passage of a haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft bill that would formalize and legalize massive exemptions for yeshiva students.
The first option – a national unity government – might tamp down some of the passion and heal some of the divisions that have resurfaced; the second will only widen them.
The idea of a national unity government was floated last week by President Isaac Herzog and picked up by Shas Interior Minister Moshe Arbel, obviously with the blessing of Shas head Arye Deri.
The unity government idea – discussed with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum forum – rests on several key rationales.
Address crisis and remove political bias
- First, it answers a plea articulated over and over again by reservists and bereaved families for unity: the idea that at a time when soldiers are risking and at times giving their lives, the political discourse in the country, which again has turned toxic, needs to change, and one way of changing it is via a unity government.
- Second, a unity government fits a pattern seen in the past, that when the country is in a period of waiting and under existential threats, all parties are brought into the government to make the country’s fateful decisions. The paradigmatic example of this was the national unity government that brought Menachem Begin and his Gahal Party – fierce political rivals of the ruling Alignment party at the time – into the government just prior to the 1967 Six Day War.
- Third, a wide unity government would remove the perception that political considerations are the driving force behind major, fateful decisions. Supporters of a hostage deal now – even though it is not clear if one is available – accuse Netanyahu of not grabbing it because if he does, he will lose his government.If the government is expanded so it need not rely on the votes of the two parties that have expressed opposition to the deal as it has been laid out – Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party – then political considerations could theoretically be removed from the equation, and the matter settled solely on its substance.
- Fourth, with the country potentially on the cusp of waging a full-throttle war in Lebanon, the government needs a high level of public trust and legitimacy to wage that war and ask the country’s citizens to make the sacrifices that will be called for. This is a degree of legitimacy the current government – which faces a massive trust deficit – does not have.
The chances of forming such a unity government were always slim, despite some support from figures within the coalition, including members of Likud, Shas, and the Religious Zionist Party, as well as a few voices from the opposition, like National Unity’s Matan Kahana, who backed the idea or were open to considering it in various forms.
Among the ideas discussed for this government would be for it to serve for six months – the time, perhaps, needed to secure the release of the hostages and create a new reality in the North that would allow some 60,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes – after which new elections would be held. This scenario would offer a way for opposition parties to join the government, overcoming their fear that this might just be a strategy for Netanyahu to cling to power until elections must be held by October 27, 2026.
All of this, however, was largely shoved aside by Monday’s drama regarding Netanyahu’s reported intention of firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replacing him with Sa’ar, the former senior Likud member who stormed out of the party in December 2020 saying that the prime minister was unsuited to lead the country. He set up his own party, New Hope.
Sa’ar, whose party underperformed expectations, joined forces with Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party prior to the last elections and – together with Gantz – joined the emergency government established immediately after October 7. In March, Sa’ar split from Gantz’s party and then quit the government after failing to be appointed to the War Cabinet.
If Netanyahu fires Gallant, it will not only be because they disagree on some key issues – such as a hostage deal and whether the focus of the war should now be on the North – but also because of mutual suspicion and a lack of trust.That lack of trust and confidence among members of the top tier of the country’s leadership pyramid will not be rectified by bringing in Sa’ar, who has on numerous occasions voiced his disdain for Netanyahu’s leadership. Some in Netanyahu’s inner circle, including his wife, Sara, reportedly hold a deep grudge against Sa’ar for splitting from the Likud and are opposed to his return.
One reason proffered for the timing of this move has to do with the budget, and the threat of United Torah Judaism not to vote for the budget – something that could topple the government – unless a haredi draft law that anchors massive exemptions for yeshiva students is included.
Gallant has proven adamantly opposed to this, while the haredi parties reportedly believe that Sa’ar may be more pliable on this matter.
In any event, such a move would save Sa’ar’s political career. According to recent polls, his party running alone will not pass the 3.25% electoral threshold needed to make it into the next Knesset. Efforts to put together a Likud B, a liberal right-wing party comprising former prime minister Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beytenu head Avigdor Liberman, and Sa’ar have not yet borne any fruit; Sa’ar’s political future may depend on whether he will be able to get back into Likud.
While a national unity government might have a calming effect on the street and tamp down divisions as Israel shifts its focus to a possible war in Lebanon, a government formed to institutionalize haredi draft exemptions and rescue Sa’ar from political oblivion will have the opposite effect. Instead of calming the street and healing divisions, such a government would likely further rile up the street and widen existing rifts.