The Israeli opposition made a slight advancement in this week’s Maariv poll, which indicated that if elections were to be held today, the opposition bloc would gain one additional seat, bringing its projected total to a majority of 62 seats.
The polling, which was done by Dr. Menachem Lazar’s “Lazar Research” and conducted in collaboration with Panel4All, comes as hostage negotiations reportedly stall as they approach completion.
According to the survey, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition earned just 48 seats.
After survey respondents were asked for whom they would vote if new Knesset elections were held today, Netanyahu’s Likud emerged with 23 mandates (24 in the previous poll), National Unity, 20 (20), Yesh Atid, 16 (15), Yisrael Beiteinu, 15 (15), The Democrats, 11 (12), Shas, 10 (9), Otzma Yehudit, 8 (9), United Torah Judaism, 7 (7), Hadash-Ta’al, 6 (6), and Ra’am – 4 (4).
The Religious Zionist Party, New Hope-United Right, and Balad remained below the electoral threshold.
The poll also revealed that a party led by Naftali Bennett has weakened by one mandate this week, now standing at 24, still three more mandates ahead of Likud's 21.
Overall, the theoretical opposition bloc examined in previous Maariv polls, which includes Bennett, lost one mandate this week but still retained a majority of 65 mandates, even without the Arab parties.
If a new party led by Ofer Winter joins forces with Bennett’s party, Winter would secure six mandates, drawing support primarily from the right-wing bloc, particularly from Otzma Yehudit and Likud voters.
In this scenario, the right-wing bloc would gain four mandates, reaching 48, but the opposition bloc, including Bennett, would still maintain a majority of 62 mandates without the Arab parties.
Support for judicial reform
A majority of the Israeli public (52%) opposes the judicial reform being reintroduced by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, 35% support it, and 13% are undecided.
Politically, most coalition voters (72%) support the reform, while opposition voters (85%) and Arab party voters (84%) are strongly opposed to it.
Among Likud voters, support for the judicial reform stands at 56% from the 2022 elections and increases to 73% for future elections.
Within the Jewish population, there is a clear divide: a secular majority opposes the reform (72%), while a religious majority (58%), especially the ultra-Orthodox (74%), supports it.
The traditional public is split, with 43% in favor and 42% against.