The ‘Deal of the Century’ – the first act will set the stage
One plausible scenario that has been circulating speaks of extension of Israeli sovereignty over Ma’aleh Adumim, Ariel and Gush Etzion in the first stage.
By MEIR DEUTSCHTHE SETTLEMENT of Elazar, 18 km. south of Jerusalem, as it looked last week.(photo credit: GERSHON ELINSON/FLASH90)
Historic strides have been made in a few short years: Israel’s legal, moral and historical claims to Judea and Samaria have been recognized by the world’s only superpower and Israel’s greatest ally. The next stage, the conversation regarding the practical expression of Israel’s sovereignty in these areas, is now officially underway.The crucial questions to be decided at this point are apparently not whether Israeli sovereignty will be extended, or even whether the new borders will be recognized by the United States. The questions are about the when and where: What portion of the territory re-united with Israel in a war of self-defense over half a century ago will finally be brought under Israeli sovereignty, and what areas will be left waiting for some later date?One plausible scenario that has been circulating speaks of extension of Israeli sovereignty over Ma’aleh Adumim, Ariel and Gush Etzion in the first stage. While this may seem a clear and practical blueprint for progress, as is so often the case, the devil is in the details.As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi sit down with US Ambassador David Friedman and Special Envoy Avi Berkowitz to work out the details of Israel’s new borders, some of the most important questions are barely even on the public’s radar. The first issue that is unclear but crucially important is whether Israeli sovereignty will be recognized only over the area included within municipal “blue lines,” or if Israeli sovereignty will extend to the open spaces that make these three municipal blocs viable entities.A second issue that remains amorphous is the fate of the remaining sections of Area C, the areas placed under full Israeli jurisdiction under the Oslo Accords. What will happen to the territory Israel refrains from including in its sovereign borders at the end of the four-year period prescribed by the Trump plan?If the Palestinian Authority continues to reject the path of negotiation or fails to meet the criteria laid out in the “Peace to Prosperity” plan, will Israel retain the right to extend sovereignty to all of Area C? Perhaps more importantly, who will be the judge of Palestinian compliance? Will incitement or actual violence as a reaction to the first stage be whitewashed as an “understandable,” forgivable or even inevitable response that the Israeli public and its government will be expected to overlook or tolerate?Will the first stage of the plan’s implementation include any consequences for violations of this kind, such as shortening the four-year holding pattern for each violation of the plan’s criteria? What will constitute a substantive violation that warrants the entire deal being taken off the table?The implementation of the first stage of the plan currently under discussion is significant even beyond the extension of Israeli sovereignty. The terms and context that frame this first stage will set the stage for the viability of the process as a whole.If it recognizes Israeli sovereignty over the open spaces of Gush Etzion, the Ariel bloc and E1 (the Adumim region), the “Deal of the Century’s” first stage will effectively counter decades of PA violations of its obligations under the Oslo Accords.If it includes clear and measurable compliance standards and an explicit set of consequences in the event of non-compliance, the first stage will go where no previous peace plan has ever gone before: It will incentivize the Palestinians to negotiate, to compromise, and to take responsibility.
On the other hand, if Israeli sovereignty is recognized only within Israeli “blue lines,” the precedent will be devastating. If the first stage of the process turns a blind eye to decades of PA-orchestrated illegal construction and agricultural land expropriation, the “Deal of the Century” process will be stillborn. If the PA has nothing to lose by continuing its operational tactics of rejectionism, illegal land grabs and violence, the current plan will achieve nothing more than its woefully inadequate predecessors.The writer is director general of Regavim, an Israeli nonprofit organization dedicated to the preservation of Israel’s land resources.
