What challenges are waiting for Gilad Erdan at the UN, Washington?
There is never a dull moment in Israeli diplomacy, and Erdan will have to face numerous challenges shortly after his arrival to the US.
By OMRI NAHMIASGilad Erdan attends a cabinet meeting, December 2019.(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
WASHINGTON – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday the nomination of Gilad Erdan, Minister of Public Security, to serve as Israel’s next ambassador to the UN. Erdan is also expected to succeed Ron Dermer as Israel’s ambassador in Washington. It would be the first time since Abba Eban in the 1950’s that the same person will hold two of the county’s top diplomatic roles simultaneously.There is never a dull moment in Israeli diplomacy, and Erdan will have to face numerous challenges shortly after his arrival to the US. Some of the challenges, like the extension of UNIFIL’s mandate in Lebanon, will take much of his time at the UN. Other issues, like the Trump administration’s concern over Israel’s relations with China, will be his prime focus in Washington. Further challenges, like global reactions to a possible annexation of settlements in the West Bank, will have to do with both of his positions.So, what is waiting on Erdan’s table?The UN:The most urgent task on Erdan’s desk at the UN is the embargo on arms sales to Iran that expires in October. The US and Israel are working closely to convince members of the Security Council that resuming arms sales to Iran could destabilize the situation in the Middle East, but so far, there hasn’t been any breakthrough. Last week, Danon told The Jerusalem Post that he hopes to convince the EU members of the Security Council that Iran cannot be trusted. “When you look at the launch of this satellite, together with other activities, it is clear that these actions are for military purposes,” he said. “And they are doing so when they are supposed to be under embargo. Our message to our colleagues [in the Security Council] is – imagine to yourselves what would happen when the restrictions expire.”UNIFIL Upgrade? For nearly a year, Israel and the United States have been jointly working to get the United Nations Security Council to upgrade the mandate of the international peacekeeping force based in southern Lebanon, providing it with greater authority in an effort to weaken Hezbollah. The idea is to upgrade UNIFIL’s mandate, specifically to give it the ability to visit and inspect any area in southern Lebanon. Under the existing mandate, UNIFIL cannot enter villages and urban areas unless it first coordinates such visits with the Lebanese Armed Forces. UNIFIL’s mandate would expire in August.Dealing with annexation fallout – The current ambassador is already preparing for a series of Palestinian efforts to condemn Israel at the UN should the Israeli government approve annexation of settlements. These moves could include calling an urgent discussion at the Security Council; requesting a discussion at the General Assembly and unilateral Palestinian actions. The incoming ambassador would have to master the diplomatic work in a short period to deal with all of these scenarios.Washington:Israel-US defense pact: Just before Israel’s second round of elections, in September 2019, Prime Minister Netanyahu promised to promote a US-Israel defense pact. US President Donald Trump, too, tweeted about the issue, showing a willingness to discuss such a move. However, soon after the Israelis cast their ballots, the subject was sidelined with yet another round of elections. JINSA, together with Senator Lindsey Graham, advocated for a narrow defense pact, believing it has strong support in Washington. Advancing this cause would require intense diplomatic efforts from the incoming ambassador.China:
The relationship between the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government is as close as you can get. There is rarely sunlight between the two. However, there is one area that is has been a constant source of tensions, and that is Israel’s relationship with China. The Trump administration saw China as the number one threat on the world stage even before COVID-19, and now even more so.A senior official in Trump’s administration told the Post last year that the establishment of an oversight mechanism for Chinese investments in Israel is important to ensure the continued growth of Israeli-US ties. Another challenge to US-Israel relations is Haifa Port, which a Chinese company is set to operate starting in 2021 and which has been used in the past by the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet. The US official said that America is looking at ways to mitigate China’s ability to “glean from that activity.” For Erdan, that might be to most time-consuming job while in Washington.Erdan would take his seat at the Israeli embassy only after the November presidential elections. If Trump is reelected, it will be hard for him to fill Dermer’s shoes in such a short period, as he expected to fill the role for one year. After nearly seven years in his position, Dermer is known to have an excellent relationship with the Trump administration from the bottom up, as well as with many of his peer diplomats.In the case of a Biden win, the incoming ambassador will face a complicated task: trying to restore the relationship with the Democratic Party, which soured during the Obama administration, while also objecting possible American attempts to return to the Iran nuclear deal. Biden expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA in the past. This isn’t going to be a simple job, especially given that the nomination is for one year. If Israel would move on to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank, restoring relationships with the Democratic Party might be even a more challenging task to complete in one year.Another factor that one should keep in mind is whether Erdan is going to have Netanyahu’s back. “When Dermer speaks with someone in Washington, it goes without saying that he speaks on behalf of Netanyahu,” a diplomatic source told the Post. “It gave Dermer credibility in the city. It is yet to be seen if it will be the same with the incoming ambassador.”
