The Palestinian issue will once again appear in the forefront of the global agenda.
By ALON LIELPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his speech to US Congress on March 3, 2015, with US Speaker of the House John Boehner and President pro tempore of the US Senate Orrin Hatch applauding behind him(photo credit: REUTERS)
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu claims that the steadfast struggle he waged against the US administration prior to its approval of the Iranian nuclear deal has not harmed Israel’s relationship with the US. Only time will tell. The latent tension that exists between Netanyahu and Obama could still dissipate.It is certainly possible that Washington and Jerusalem will successfully move on to the next stage of damage control in the relations between the two countries. There is a surprising elasticity in politics that is dictated by a phenomenon in international relations known as “interests.” If it is in their interest to cooperate, they will find a way to put their emotions aside.It’s much harder, however, to heal the rift that has formed between Israel and the American Jewish community. In this case, the emotional factor is much more important. The damage done to the Jewish community, especially along Republican and Democratic lines, will remain. This time the Jewish community did not stand firmly behind the prime minister in his confrontation with the US administration. Moreover, this is the first time that the left-wing Jewish group J Street received more support than the mainstream AIPAC. This is an important precedent for the entire Jewish Diaspora. We have apparently reached the beginning of a new phase in Jewish history.Unfortunately, irreparable damage has been done to Netanyahu’s image. Whereas in the past he was considered a public relations and marketing wizard, his ongoing struggle with the US Congress over the signing of the Iranian nuclear deal is now widely viewed as bad judgment. This defeat has altered the aura of invincibility that surrounded him regarding his influence in the US. Netanyahu has been described as a wizard due to his ability to get so many congressmen to jump up out of their seats as they applauded him during his controversial address on the anti-Iran deal in March. However, in the end Congress approved the Iranian nuclear deal and, as a result, Netanyahu’s image as wizard was tarnished.If Netanyahu eventually decides to try repair the damage, he will very quickly need to switch to security and intelligence cooperation with the Obama administration regarding the direct defense compensation the US is offering Israel, as well as the full implementation of the nuclear agreement. These are the two most important issues that will affect Israel’s security. If, however, Netanyahu continues to provoke Obama on the political front even after the deal has been given final approval, he will be hurting Israel’s chances of receiving proper compensation and carrying out joint surveillance of Iran.Netanyahu has certainly succeeded in one aspect – at least from his point of view.The intense pressure Netanyahu put on Obama and then on Congress not to sign the Iranian deal forced the US to abandon the Palestinian issue for most of 2015. Moreover, the US administration even requested from its closest European allies to refrain from carrying out any activity on the Israel-Palestinian front for the time being. Netanyahu gained a year free of pressure to return to the negotiating table and to stop settlement expansion.Now that the Iranian issue is being put on the backburner, the Palestinian issue will once again appear in the forefront of the global agenda. In the absence of peace talks with the Palestinians over the last 24 months, the conflict has been simmering on a low flame and, at times, has boiled over in the Palestinian territories, but also in Europe.In the upcoming weeks, we will see if the pot finally boils over. It could happen during Abbas’s upcoming speech at the UN General Assembly or following the European decision to label products coming from the Israeli territories.The world is waiting to hear Netanyahu’s political vision. The one of a two-state solution that he has been lamely intoning over the last few years does not mesh with that of his government.
Netanyahu will need to present a vision that is believable and he will have to sound like he really means it.He knows that this is what the world is demanding of him, but it is doubtful that he will be capable of following through. Dr. Alon Liel, who teaches international relations at Tel Aviv University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, is a former director general of the Foreign Ministry – Translated by Hannah Hochner
